Modelling disease progression in relapsing-remitting onset multiple sclerosis using multilevel models applied to longitudinal data from two natural history cohorts and one treated cohort

Background The ability to better predict disease progression represents a major unmet need in multiple sclerosis (MS), and would help to inform therapeutic and management choices. Objectives To develop multilevel models using longitudinal data on disease progression in patients with relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS) or secondary-progressive MS (SPMS); and to use these models to estimate the association of disease-modifying therapy (DMT) with progression. Design Secondary analysis of three MS cohorts. Setting Two natural history cohorts: University of Wales Multiple Sclerosis (UoWMS) cohort, UK, and British Columbia Multiple Sclerosis (BCMS) cohort, Canada. One observational DMT-treated cohort: UK MS risk-sharing scheme (RSS). Participants The UoWMS database has > 2000 MS patients and the BCMS database (as of 2009) has > 5900 MS patients. All participants who had definite MS (RRMS/SPMS), who reached the criteria set out by the Association of British Neurologists (ABN) for eligibility for DMT [i.e. age ≥ 18 years, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of ≤ 6.5, occurrence of two or more relapses in the previous 2 years] and who had at least two repeated outcome measures were included: 404 patients for the UoWMS cohort and 978 patients for the BCMS cohort. Through the UK MS RSS scheme, 5583 DMT-treated patients were recruited, with the analysis sample being the 4137 who had RRMS and were eligible and treated at baseline, with at least one valid EDSS score post baseline. Main outcome measures EDSS score observations post ABN eligibility. Methods We used multilevel models in the development cohort (UoWMS) to develop a model for EDSS score with time since ABN eligibility, allowing for covariates and appropriate transformation of outcome and/or time. These methods were then applied to the BCMS cohort to obtain a ‘natural history’ model for changes in the EDSS score with time. We then used this natural history model to predict the trajectories of EDSS score in treated patients in the UK MS RSS database. Differences between the progression predicted by the natural history model and the progression observed at 6 years’ follow-up for the UK MS RSS cohort were used as indicators of the effectiveness of the DMTs. Previously developed utility scores were assigned to each EDSS score, and differences in utility also examined. Results The model best fitting the UoWMS data showed a non-linear increase in EDSS score over time since ABN eligibility. This model fitted the BCMS cohort data well, with similar coefficients, and the BCMS model predicted EDSS score in UoWMS data with little evidence of bias. Using the natural history model predicts EDSS score in a treated cohort (UK MS RSS) higher than that observed [by 0.59 points (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.64 points)] at 6 years post treatment. Limitations Only two natural history cohorts were compared, limiting generalisability. The comparison of a treated cohort with untreated cohorts is observational, thus limiting conclusions about causality. Conclusions EDSS score progression in two natural history cohorts of MS patients showed a similar pattern. Progression in the natural history cohorts was slightly faster than EDSS score progression in the DMT-treated cohort, up to 6 years post treatment. Future work Long-term follow-up of randomised controlled trials is needed to replicate these findings and examine duration of any treatment effect. Funding details The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Analysis of NAMCS data for multiple sclerosis, 1998–2004

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no study to date has investigated the prescribing patterns of immunomodulatory agents (IMAs) in an outpatient setting in the United States. To address this issue, we performed retrospective data analyses on National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) data for MS patient visits between 1998 and 2004. METHODS: NAMCS data are a weighted estimate of the nationwide frequency of patients' outpatient clinic visits. We analyzed NAMCS data in the following categories: (1) the proportion of MS patient visits to neurologists, family practitioners or internists, (2) age/gender/race/geographical distribution patterns in patient visits, and (3) the proportion of patients on IMA treatment among established MS patients. RESULTS: There were an estimated 6.7 million multiple sclerosis (MS) patient visits to the clinics between 1998–2004. Neurologists recorded the most patient visits, 50.7%. Patient visits were mostly in the fourth and fifth decade age group (57.9%). The male to female ratio was 1:4. No statistical evidence was observed for a decline or increase in IMA usage. About 62% patients visiting neurologists and 92% seen by family practitioners/internists were not using IMAs. Our results suggest that between the years 1998–2003, the use of interferon-1a tended to decline while the use of interferon-1b and glatiramer acetate, increased. CONCLUSION: Strategies that lead to improved use of IMAs in the management of MS in the outpatient setting are needed

Management of breakthrough disease in patients with multiple sclerosis: when an increasing of Interferon beta dose should be effective?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In daily clinical setting, some patients affected by relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) are switched from the low-dose to the high-dose Interferon beta (IFNB) in order to achieve a better control of the disease.</p> <p>Purpose</p> <p>In this observational, post-marketing study we reported the 2-year clinical outcomes of patients switched to the high-dose IFNB; we also evaluated whether different criteria adopted to switch patients had an influence on the clinical outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients affected by RRMS and switched from the low-dose to the high-dose IFNB due to the occurrence of relapses, or contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs) as detected by yearly scheduled MRI scans, were followed for two years. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, as well as clinical relapses, were evaluated during the follow-up period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 121 patients switched to the high-dose IFNB. One hundred patients increased the IFNB dose because of the occurrence of one or more relapses, and 21 because of the presence of one or more CELs, even in absence of clinical relapses. At the end of the 2-year follow-up, 72 (59.5%) patients had a relapse, and 51 (42.1%) reached a sustained progression on EDSS score. Overall, 85 (70.3%) patients showed some clinical disease activity (i.e. relapses or disability progression) after the switch.</p> <p>Relapse risk after increasing the IFNB dose was greater in patients who switched because of relapses than those switched only for MRI activity (HR: 5.55, p = 0.001). A high EDSS score (HR: 1.77, p < 0.001) and the combination of clinical and MRI activity at switch raised the risk of sustained disability progression after increasing the IFNB dose (HR: 2.14, p = 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the majority of MS patients, switching from the low-dose to the high-dose IFNB did not reduce the risk of further relapses or increased disability in the 2-year follow period.</p> <p>Although we observed that patients who switched only on the basis on MRI activity (even in absence of clinical attacks) had a lower risk of further relapses, larger studies are warranted before to recommend a switch algorithm based on MRI findings.</p

One-year MRI scan predicts clinical response to interferon beta in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To define the predictive value of clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics in identifying relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RR-MS) patients with sustained disability progression during interferon beta (IFNB) treatment. METHODS: All patients receiving treatment with one of the available IFNB formulations for at least 1 year were included in this single-centre, prospective and post-marketing study. Demographic, clinical and MRI data were collected at IFNB start and at 1 year of therapy; patients were followed-up at least yearly. Poor clinical response was defined as the occurrence of a sustained disability progression of > or =1 point in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) during the follow-up period. RESULTS: Out of 454 RR-MS patients starting IFNB therapy, data coming from 394 patients with a mean follow-up of 4.8 (2.4) years were analysed. Sixty patients were excluded because of too short follow-up. Less than 1/3 (30.4%) of the patients satisfied the criterion of 'poor responders'. Patients presenting new lesions on T2-weighted MRI scan after 1 year of therapy (compared with baseline) had a higher risk of being poor responder to treatment with IFNB during the follow-up period (HR 16.8, 95% CI 7.6-37.1, P < 0.001). An augmented risk increasing the number of lesions was observed, with a 10-fold increase for each new lesion. CONCLUSIONS: Developing new T2-hyperintense lesions during IFNB treatment was the best predictor of long-term poor response to therapy. MRI scans performed after 1 year of IFNB treatment may be useful in contributing to early identification of poor responders