368 research outputs found
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A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth and carbon allocation in a semi-arid woodland
Many studies have failed to show an increase in the radial growth of trees in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] despite the expected enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency at high [CO2]. A global light use efficiency model of photosynthesis, coupled with a generic carbon allocation and tree-growth model based on mass balance and tree geometry principles, was used to simulate annual ring-width variations for the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values for the tree-growth model were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area (ζ), which were calibrated to the ring-width measurements by Bayesian optimization. This procedure imposed a strong constraint on ζ. Modelled and observed ring-widths showed quantitatively similar, positive responses to total annual photosynthetically active radiation and soil moisture, and similar negative responses to vapour pressure deficit. The model also produced enhanced radial growth in response to increasing [CO2] during recent decades, but the data do not show this. Recalibration in moving 30-year time windows produced temporal shifts in the estimated values of ζ, including an increase by ca 12% since the 1960s, and eliminated the [CO2]-induced increase in radial growth. The potential effect of CO2 on ring-width was thus shown to be small compared to effects of climate variability even in this semi-arid climate. It could be counteracted in the model by a modest allocation shift, as has been observed in field experiments with raised [CO2]
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Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations
We investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5%/°C and 3%/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this “rich get richer” syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold-climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM
Forests and Decarbonization : roles of natural and planted forests
Acknowledgements ICP acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No: 787203 REALM). MN acknowledges support from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), grant No. J4211- N29.Peer reviewedPublisher PD
Peatlands and Climate Change
This is the author's manuscript version and this version is free to view and download for personal use only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works.This material is forthcoming in Peatland Restoration and Ecosystem Services
Science, Policy and Practice, 9781107619708,
© Cambridge University PressThe fundamental reason for the presence of peatlands is a positive balance between plant production and decomposition. Organic matter accumulates in these systems because prolonged waterlogged conditions result in soil anoxia (i.e., exclusion of oxygen), and under these conditions decomposition rates can be lower than those of primary production. Climate therefore plays an important role in peat accumulation, both directly by affecting productivity and decomposition processes, and indirectly through its effects on hydrology/water balance and vegetation (for a summary, refer to Yu, Beilman & Jones 2009). Climate provides broad-scale constraints or controls on peatland extent, types and vegetation, and ultimately, ecosystem functioning, carbon accumulation, greenhouse gas exchange and all of the other ecosystem services that peatlands provide. Peatlands can play a vital role in helping society mitigate and adapt to climate change, because of their carbon and water regulating functions, while at the same time, the climate sensitivity of peatlands makes them potentially vulnerable to future global warming and changes in spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation, especially if they are in a degraded state. Climate change is likely to alter the hydrology and soil temperature of peatlands, with far- reaching consequences for their biodiversity, ecology and biogeochemistry. Their involvement in the global carbon cycle will also be affected, with the possibility of drier conditions allowing peatland erosion and increases in CO2 emissions that would result in a positive feedback to climate change (Turetsky 2010). This highlights all the more the need for restoration to ensure peatlands are resilient to change so that they continue to deliver ecosystem services for human well-being. This chapter describes the interactions between climate and peatlands, in three sections. The first section explains how present climate influences peatlands, by documenting how climate limits peatland geographical extent globally, and how bioclimatic envelope models can predict peatland extent. We indicate how each type of peatland is linked to a specific climate range, and introduce the concept of ecosystem function in relation to climate. The second section looks into the past. It describes how peat preserves a record of past climates and environmental conditions that can be deciphered to reveal the history of peatland vegetation, hydrology and carbon accumulation changes in relation to past changes in climate. We highlight lessons that can be learned from the palaeorecord preserved in peat. The final section discusses the potential effects of present and future climate change on peatlands, their extent, carbon accumulation rates, fire frequency, water table and greenhouse gas exchanges. We also consider how increases in sea level and CO2 concentration, and decreases in the extent of permafrost, are likely to affect peatlands
Leaf nitrogen from first principles: field evidence for adaptive variation with climate
Nitrogen content per unit leaf area (Narea) is a key variable in plant functional ecology and biogeochemistry. Narea comprises a structural component, which scales with leaf mass per area (LMA), and a metabolic component, which scales with Rubisco capacity. The co-ordination hypothesis, as implemented in LPJ and related global vegetation models, predicts that Rubisco capacity should be directly proportional to irradiance but should decrease with increases in ci : ca and temperature because the amount of Rubisco required to achieve a given assimilation rate declines with increases in both. We tested these predictions using LMA, leaf δ13C, and leaf N measurements on complete species assemblages sampled at sites on a north–south transect from tropical to temperate Australia. Partial effects of mean canopy irradiance, mean annual temperature, and ci : ca (from δ13C) on Narea were all significant and their directions and magnitudes were in line with predictions. Over 80 % of the variance in community-mean (ln) Narea was accounted for by these predictors plus LMA. Moreover, Narea could be decomposed into two components, one proportional to LMA (slightly steeper in N-fixers), and the other to Rubisco capacity as predicted by the co-ordination hypothesis. Trait gradient analysis revealed ci : ca to be perfectly plastic, while species turnover contributed about half the variation in LMA and Narea. Interest has surged in methods to predict continuous leaf-trait variation from environmental factors, in order to improve ecosystem models. Coupled carbon–nitrogen models require a method to predict Narea that is more realistic than the widespread assumptions that Narea is proportional to photosynthetic capacity, and/or that Narea (and photosynthetic capacity) are determined by N supply from the soil. Our results indicate that Narea has a useful degree of predictability, from a combination of LMA and ci : ca – themselves in part environmentally determined – with Rubisco activity, as predicted from local growing conditions. This finding is consistent with a "plant-centred" approach to modelling, emphasizing the adaptive regulation of traits. Models that account for biodiversity will also need to partition community-level trait variation into components due to phenotypic plasticity and/or genotypic differentiation within species vs. progressive species replacement, along environmental gradients. Our analysis suggests that variation in Narea is about evenly split between these two modes.Ning Dong, Iain Colin Prentice, Bradley J. Evans, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Andrew J. Lowe and Ian J. Wrigh
Bridging Drought Experiment and Modeling: Representing the Differential Sensitivities of Leaf Gas Exchange to Drought
Global climate change is expected to increase drought duration and intensity in certain regions while increasing rainfall in others. The quantitative consequences of increased drought for ecosystems are not easy to predict. Process-based models must be informed by experiments to determine the resilience of plants and ecosystems from different climates. Here, we demonstrate what and how experimentally derived quantitative information can improve the representation of stomatal and non-stomatal photosynthetic responses to drought in large-scale vegetation models. In particular, we review literature on the answers to four key questions: (1) Which photosynthetic processes are affected under short-term drought? (2) How do the stomatal and non-stomatal responses to short-term drought vary among species originating from different hydro-climates? (3) Do plants acclimate to prolonged water stress, and do mesic and xeric species differ in their degree of acclimation? (4) Does inclusion of experimentally based plant functional type specific stomatal and non-stomatal response functions to drought help Land Surface Models to reproduce key features of ecosystem responses to drought? We highlighted the need for evaluating model representations of the fundamental eco-physiological processes under drought. Taking differential drought sensitivity of different vegetation into account is necessary for Land Surface Models to accurately model drought responses, or the drought impacts on vegetation in drier environments may be over-estimated
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The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Climate and fuel availability jointly control the incidence of wildfires. The effects of atmospheric CO2 on plant growth influence fuel availability independently of climate, but the relative importance of each in driving large-scale changes in wildfire regimes cannot easily be quantified from observations alone. Here, we use previously developed empirical models to simulate the global spatial pattern of burnt area, fire size, and fire intensity for modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼ 21 000 ka) conditions using both realistic changes in climate and CO2 and sensitivity experiments to separate their effects. Three different LGM scenarios are used to represent the range of modelled LGM climates. We show large, modelled reductions in burnt area at the LGM compared to the recent period, consistent with the sedimentary charcoal record. This reduction was predominantly driven by the effect of low CO2 on vegetation productivity. The amplitude of the reduction under low-CO2 conditions was similar regardless of the LGM climate scenario and was not observed in any LGM scenario when only climate effects were considered, with one LGM climate scenario showing increased burning under these conditions. Fire intensity showed a similar sensitivity to CO2 across different climates but was also sensitive to changes in vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Modelled fire size was reduced under LGM CO2 in many regions but increased under LGM climates because of changes in wind strength, dry days (DDs), and diurnal temperature range (DTR). This increase was offset under the coldest LGM climate in the northern latitudes because of a large reduction in VPD. These results emphasize the fact that the relative magnitudes of changes in different climate variables influence the wildfire regime and that different aspects of climate change can have opposing effects. The importance of CO2 effects imply that future projections of wildfire must take rising CO2 into account
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Changes in biomass allocation buffer low CO2 effects on tree growth during the last glaciation
Isotopic measurements on junipers growing in southern California during the last glacial, when the ambient atmospheric [CO2] (ca) was ~180 ppm, show the leaf-internal [CO2] (ci) was approaching the modern CO2 compensation point for C3 plants. Despite this, stem growth rates were similar to today. Using a coupled light-use efficiency and tree growth model, we show that it is possible to maintain a stable ci/ca ratio because both vapor pressure deficit and temperature were decreased under glacial conditions at La Brea, and these have compensating effects on the ci/ca ratio. Reduced photorespiration at lower temperatures would partly mitigate the effect of low ci on gross primary production, but maintenance of present-day radial growth also requires a ~27% reduction in the ratio of fine root mass to leaf area. Such a shift was possible due to reduced drought stress under glacial conditions at La Brea. The necessity for changes in allocation in response to changes in [CO2] is consistent with increased below-ground allocation, and the apparent homoeostasis of radial growth, as ca increases today
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