NON-PARAMETRIC STATISTICAL APPROACH TO CORRECT SATELLITE RAINFALL DATA IN NEAR-REAL-TIME FOR RAIN BASED FLOOD NOWCASTING

Floods resulting from intense rainfall are one of the most disastrous hazards in many regions of the world since they contribute greatly to personal injury and to property damage mainly as a result of their ability to strike with little warning. The possibility to give an alert about a flooding situation at least a few hours before helps greatly to reduce the damage. Therefore, scores of flood forecasting systems have been developed during the past few years mainly at country level and regional level. Flood forecasting systems based only on traditional methods such as return period of flooding situations or extreme rainfall events have failed on most occasions to forecast flooding situations accurately because of changes on territory in recent years by extensive infrastructure development, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events over recent decades, etc. Nowadays, flood nowcasting systems or early warning systems which run on real- time precipitation data are becoming more popular as they give reliable forecasts compared to traditional flood forecasting systems. However, these kinds of systems are often limited to developed countries as they need well distributed gauging station networks or sophisticated surface-based radar systems to collect real-time precipitation data. In most of the developing countries and in some developed countries also, precipitation data from available sparse gauging stations are inadequate for developing representative aerial samples needed by such systems. As satellites are able to provide a global coverage with a continuous temporal availability, currently the possibility of using satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood nowcasting systems is being highly investigated. To contribute to the world's requirement for flood early warning systems, ITHACA developed a global scale flood nowcasting system that runs on near-real-time satellite rainfall estimates. The system was developed in cooperation with United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), to support the preparedness phase of the WFP like humanitarian assistance agencies, mainly in less developed countries. The concept behind this early warning system is identifying critical rainfall events for each hydrological basin on the earth with past rainfall data and using them to identify floodable rainfall events with real time rainfall data. The individuation of critical rainfall events was done with a hydrological analysis using 3B42 rainfall data which is the most accurate product of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) dataset. These critical events have been stored in a database and when a rainfall event is found in real-time which is similar or exceeds the event in the database an alert is issued for the basin area. The most accurate product of TMPA (3B42) is derived by applying bias adjustments to real time rainfall estimates using rain gauge data, thus it is available for end-users 10-15 days after each calendar month. The real time product of TMPA (3B42RT) is released approximately 9 hours after real-time and lacks of such kind of bias adjustments using rain gauge data as rain gauge data are not available in real time. Therefore, to have reliable alerts it is very important to reduce the uncertainty of 3B42RT product before using it in the early warning system. For this purpose, a statistical approach was proposed to make near real- time bias adjustments for the near real time product of TMPA (3B42RT). In this approach the relationship between the bias adjusted rainfall data product (3B42) and the real-time rainfall data product (3B42RT) was analyzed on the basis of drainage basins for the period from January 2003 to December 2007, and correction factors were developed for each basin worldwide to perform near real-time bias adjusted product estimation from the real-time rainfall data product (3B42RT). The accuracy of the product was analyzed by comparing with gauge rainfall data from Bangladesh and it was found that the uncertainty of the product is less even than the most accurate product of TMPA dataset (3B42

A phenomenological exploration into psychotherapists' experiences of their breath awareness in psychotherapy

At a time when the interest in mindfulness continues to rapidly expand, its development as a therapeutic tool appears significant to both therapists and their clients. By ‘going back’ to the experience of breath awareness, this study offered new perspectives. In this study I investigated psychotherapists’ breath awareness in psychotherapy with their clients. My aim was to provide a ‘bottom up’ approach to investigate participants’ experiences by examining the phenomena of breath itself in the context of psychotherapy and mindfulness. Participants were interviewed after a two week period of them paying attention to their breath. The accounts of their lived experiences provided rich data that were analysed by the utilisation of a qualitative methodology, namely interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). The six participants were not given any training prior to taking part in the study. However they were guided to observe their experiences of breath awareness that could include the physiological, emotional, cognitive and context while in sessions with their clients. Participants were invited to keep a journal for their private use to record their experiences. The findings revealed several similar experiences across the group that pointed to the usefulness of psychotherapists’ breath awareness such as, experiences of developing self-awareness. Difficulties in breath awareness such as, discomfort in breathing and coping with clients’ distress were also explored. Themes revealed breath awareness related to: physical breath experiences, experiences of being present; developing awareness; regulating self and client as well as discomfort in breath awareness. Further sub-themes offered a detailed exploration into the accounts as expressed by the participants and the interpretation of their meaning making. The findings of this study related to various literature such as, empirical evidence, theory connected to clinical practice and Buddhist ancient perspectives. This study made a contribution as it offered a first of its kind, investigation into psychotherapists’ breath awareness within the context of therapy. It supported breath awareness as a method that can develop mindfulness. However within the context of IPA and qualitative research, limitations included that the findings cannot be related to the overall practice of mindfulness or meditation. The study is also limited by its reliance on the accuracy of participants’ self-reporting outcome

The domestic financial market and the trade liberalization outcome : the evidence from Sri Lanka

The authors developed a framework for analyzing the relationship between domestic financial markets and the effects of trade liberalization and applied it to Sri Lanka's experience between 1977 and 1987. They found that the domestic financial market significantly affects the outcome of trade liberalization. Because Sri Lanka deregulated its interest rates when it undertook the trade liberalization, this allowed those earning more from trade liberalization to hold financial assets rather than nontradables. The availability of savings and time deposits at attractive interest rates prevented the premature appreciation of the exchange rate, thus helping to maintain the competitiveness stimulated by trade liberalization. By reforming interest rates, removing credit ceilings, and increasing competition among banks, Sri Lanka helped increase private sector savings - which could be reallocated to the tradable sector. Unlike earlier studies on financial reform in Sri Lanka, this one finds that financial reforms have increased private savings in financial institutions, raised economywide financial intermediation ratios, and expanded credit to the private sector. More important, the authors find a statistically significant relationship between the financial intermediation ratio and the real exchange rate.Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies

Carbon Monoxide in Disks Around Two T Tauri Stars: RY Tau & DG Tau

I present high-resolution, near infrared NIRSPEC spectra of carbon monoxide for two classical T Tauri stars: RY Tau and DG Tau. The purpose of the study is to further test whether there is a correlation between gas and dust with inclination to constrain models of dust settling and turbulence in disks. 12CO overtone and fundamental absorption lines in the 2.3 and 4.7 µm spectral region were measured, respectively. 13CO was detected for DG Tau. Rotational temperatures and column densities were calculated for each source. The ratio ~ NCO/AV was measured as a function of inclination and compared to the results presented by Rettig et al. (2006). The results for RY Tau follow the trend reported by Rettig et al. (2006). The gas to dust ratio toward DG Tau is enormously larger than that found for similar sources

Complex scaling behavior in animal foraging patterns

This dissertation attempts to answer questions from two different areas of biology, ecology and neuroscience, using physics-based techniques. In Section 2, suitability of three competing random walk models is tested to describe the emergent movement patterns of two species of primates. The truncated power law (power law with exponential cut off) is the most suitable random walk model that characterizes the emergent movement patterns of these primates. In Section 3, an agent-based model is used to simulate search behavior in different environments (landscapes) to investigate the impact of the resource landscape on the optimal foraging movement patterns of deterministic foragers. It should be noted that this model goes beyond previous work in that it includes parameters such as spatial memory and satiation, which have received little consideration to date in the field of movement ecology. When the food availability is scarce in a tropical forest-like environment with feeding trees distributed in a clumped fashion and the size of those trees are distributed according to a lognormal distribution, the optimal foraging pattern of a generalist who can consume various and abundant food types indeed reaches the Lévy range, and hence, show evidence for Lévy-flight-like (power law distribution with exponent between 1 and 3) behavior. Section 4 of the dissertation presents an investigation of phase transition behavior in a network of locally coupled self-sustained oscillators as the system passes through various bursting states. The results suggest that a phase transition does not occur for this locally coupled neuronal network. The data analysis in the dissertation adopts a model selection approach and relies on methods based on information theory and maximum likelihood

The FTA debate in Sri Lanka: Rhetoric and Reality

The government of Sri Lanka has embraced free trade agreements (FTAs) as a key focus of the national trade and development strategy. This paper examines the rationale of this policy choice by analysing the trade outcomes of Sri Lanka’s FTAs with India and Pakistan and the expected gains from the FTA recently signed with Singapore. The analysis is informed by the existing body of knowledge on the role of FTAs as an alternative to multilateral and unilateral liberalisation. There is strong evidence that trade gains from FTAs has been vastly exaggerated by the proponents in the Sri Lankan trade policy debate. FTAs are essentially preferential trade deals the actual trade effect of which is conditioned by the commodity coverage normally dictated by political considerations and lobby group pressure, and the ‘rules of origin’ relating to the eligibility for the tariff concessions offered. Even then, potential trade gains depend crucially on supply-side reforms needed to improve the country’s capability to reap gains from market opening and compatibility of its trade patterns with the partner countries. Therefore the failure of the process of multilateral trade liberation under the WTO does not make a valid case for a country giving priority to FTAs. The more effective and time-honoured alternative is to undertake its own (unilateral) trade reforms needed for effectively integrating the country in the global economy combined with appropriate supply-side reformsThis report was commisioned by ASAR

Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS) is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpos

Drastic corrosive coliation of petroleum oils and the decay of metals

In the industry of petroleum oil refining industry the term of corrosion is frequently applicable regarding the several incidents because of the corrosiveness of petroleum oils due to the presence of trace corrosive compounds in such petroleum oils since the occurrences. Usually the corrosion is the results of chemical or electrochemical process of metals when it is exposing to the corrosive environment.  The investigations of the impact of the organic acids, salts, elemental sulfur and the Mercaptans on the corrosion rates of seven different types of ferrous metals and the analysis of the nature of the corrosion between these materials were the objectives of the existing research. The relevant corrosive properties of two different types of selected crude oils and the chemical compositions of selected seven different types of ferrous metals were tested by the standard methods and instruments. A batch of similar sized metal coupons was immersed in both crude oil samples separately as three homogeneous metal coupons per each crude oil container. In order of after 15, 30 and 45 days from the immersion the corrosion rates of such metal coupons were determined by the weight loss method as three sets of samples while observing the corroded metal surfaces through an optical microscope. In addition, the decay of ferrous and copper from metals into crude oils while the interaction and the deductions of the initial hardness of metals were tested. As the basic investigations there were observed the relatively lower corrosion rates from stainless steels, relatively higher impact from salts on the metallic corrosion at lower temperatures, formations of FeS, Fe2O3, corrosion cracks and pitting, significant decays of ferrous and copper from some metals and the slight reductions of the initial hardness of metals after the interaction with the petroleum oils