Large carnivore range expansion in Iberia in relation to different scenarios of permeability of human‐dominated landscapes

Aim Large carnivores are currently recolonizing parts of their historical ranges in Europe after centuries of persecution and habitat loss. Understanding the mechanisms driving these recolonizations is important for proactive conservation planning. Using the brown bear (Ursus arctos) and the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) as examples, we explore where and when large carnivores are likely to expand into human-dominated landscapes and how varying levels of resistance due to human pressure might impact this recolonization process. Location Iberian Peninsula. Methods We used ensembles of species distribution models to relate species occurrence data to climate, topography and satellite-based land-cover predictors at a 10 km spatial resolution. Resulting predictions of suitable habitat areas were fed into a dispersal model to simulate range expansion over the 10 time-steps for different human pressure scenarios. Finally, we overlaid predictions with protected areas to highlight areas that are likely key for future connectivity, but where human pressures might hamper dispersal. Results We found widespread suitable habitat for both species (bear: 30,000 km2, lynx: 170,000 km2), yet human pressure limits potential range expansions. For brown bears, core habitats between the Cantabrian and Pyrenean populations remained unconnected despite suitable habitat in between. For lynx, we predicted higher range expansion potential, although high human pressures in southern coastal Spain negatively affected expansion potential. Main conclusions Our results highlight that the recolonization potential of brown bears and lynx in the Iberian Peninsula is likely more constrained by lower permeability of landscapes due to human pressure than by habitat availability, a situation likely emblematic for large carnivores in many parts of the world. More generally, our approach provides a simple tool for conservation planners and managers to identify where range expansion is likely to occur and where proactively managing to allow large carnivores to safely disperse through human-dominated landscapes can contribute to viable large carnivore populations.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Peer Reviewe

Agricultural intensification, Indigenous stewardship and land sparing in tropical dry forests

Agricultural intensification, an increase in per-area productivity, may spare forests otherwise lost to agricultural expansion. Yet which conditions enable such sparing or whether intensification amplifies deforestation through rebound effects remains hotly debated. Using a multilevel Bayesian regression framework, we analyse the effects of agricultural intensification on deforestation in the world's understudied and threatened tropical dry forests. We find that, overall, intensification has not lowered deforestation in tropical dry forests, particularly in countries where commodity crop production dominates-a situation typical for many areas where agriculture is expanding. However, country-level intensification reduced deforestation in areas where Indigenous land stewardship is widespread. More appropriately acknowledging the critical role of Indigenous peoples in preventing rebound effects, either on their lands or on the wider surrounding area, as well as recognizing and enforcing their rights, could thus translate into major opportunities for agricultural intensification to deliver positive outcomes for people and nature.Intensifying agriculture can, in theory, spare nature from agricultural expansion. This study finds that intensification is not sparing tropical dry forests generally, but is in areas with widespread Indigenous land stewardship.Peer reviewe

An actor-centered, scalable land system typology for addressing biodiversity loss in the world’s tropical dry woodlands

Land use is a key driver of the ongoing biodiversity crisis and therefore also a major opportunity for its mitigation. However, appropriately considering the diversity of land-use actors and activities in conservation assessments and planning is challenging. As a result, top-down conservation policy and planning are often criticized for a lack of contextual nuance widely acknowledged to be required for effective and just conservation action. To address these challenges, we have developed a conceptually consistent, scalable land system typology and demonstrated its usefulness for the world's tropical dry woodlands. Our typology identifies key land-use actors and activities that represent typical threats to biodiversity and opportunities for conservation action. We identified land systems in a hierarchical way, with a global level allowing for broad-scale planning and comparative work. Nested within it, a regionalized level provides social-ecological specificity and context. We showcase this regionalization for five hotspots of land-use change and biodiversity loss in dry woodlands in Argentina, Bolivia, Mozambique, India, and Cambodia. Unlike other approaches to present land use, our typology accounts for the complexity of overlapping land uses. This allows, for example, assessment of how conservation measures conflict with other land uses, understanding of the social-ecological co-benefits and trade-offs of area-based conservation, mapping of threats, or targeting area-based and actor-based conservation measures. Moreover, our framework enables cross-regional learning by revealing both commonalities and social-ecological differences, as we demonstrate here for the world's tropical dry woodlands. By bridging the gap between global, top-down, and regional, bottom-up initiatives, our framework enables more contextually appropriate sustainability planning across scales and more targeted and social-ecologically nuanced interventions