A satellite chronology of plumes from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent

Satellite instruments play a valuable role in detecting, monitoring and characterising emissions of ash and gas into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions. This study uses two satellite instruments, the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), to examine the plumes of ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent. The frequent ABI data have been used to construct a 14 d chronology of a series of explosive events at La Soufrière, which is then complemented by measurements of SO2 from IASI, which is able to track the plume as it is transported around the globe. A minimum of 35 eruptive events were identified using true, false and brightness temperature difference maps produced with the ABI data. The high temporal resolution images were used to identify the approximate start and end times, as well as the duration and characteristics of each event. From this analysis, four distinct phases within the 14 d eruption have been defined, each consisting of multiple explosive events with similar characteristics: (1) an initial explosive event, (2) a sustained event lasting over 9 h, (3) a pulsatory phase with 25 explosive events in a 65.3 h period and (4) a waning sequence of explosive events. It is likely that the multiple explosive events during the April 2021 eruption contributed to the highly complex plume structure that can be seen in the IASI measurements of the SO2 column amounts and heights. The bulk of the SO2 from the first three phases of the eruption was transported eastwards, which based on the wind direction at the volcano implies that the SO2 was largely in the upper troposphere. Some of the SO2 was carried to the south and west of the volcano, suggesting a smaller emission of the gas into the stratosphere, there being a shift in wind direction around the height of the tropopause. The retrieved SO2 heights show that the plume had multiple layers but was largely concentrated between 13 and 19 km, with the majority of the SO2 being located in the upper troposphere and around the height of the tropopause, with some emission into the stratosphere. An average e-folding time of 6.07±4.74 d was computed based on the IASI SO2 results: similar to other tropical eruptions of this magnitude and height. The SO2 was trackable for several weeks after the eruption and is shown to have circulated the globe, with parts of it reaching as far as 45∘ S and 45∘ N. Using the IASI SO2 measurements, a time series of the total SO2 mass loading was produced, with this peaking on 13 April (descending orbits) at 0.31±0.09 Tg. Converting these mass values to a temporally varying SO2 flux demonstrated that the greatest emission occurred on 10 April with that measurement incorporating SO2 from the second phase of the eruption (sustained emission) and the beginning of the pulsatory phase. The SO2 flux is then shown to fall during the later stages of the eruption: suggesting a reduction in eruptive energy, something also reflected in ash height estimates obtained with the ABI instrument. A total SO2 emission of 0.63±0.5 Tg of SO2 has been derived, although due to limitations associated with the retrieval, particularly in the first few days after the eruption began, this, the retrieved column amounts and the total SO2 mass on each day should be considered minimum estimates. There are a number of similarities between the 1979 and 2021 eruptions at La Soufrière, with both eruptions consisting of a series of explosive events with varied heights and including some emission into the stratosphere. These similarities highlight the importance of in-depth investigations into eruptions and the valuable contribution of satellite data for this purpose; as these studies aid in learning about a volcano's behaviour, which may allow for better preparation for future eruptive activity

Lidar ratios of stratospheric volcanic ash and sulfate aerosols retrieved from CALIOP measurements

We apply a two-way transmittance constraint to nighttime CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations of volcanic aerosol layers to retrieve estimates of the particulate lidar ratio (Sp) at 532 nm. This technique is applied to three volcanic eruption case studies that were found to have injected aerosols directly into the stratosphere. Numerous lidar observations permitted characterization of the optical and geometric properties of the volcanic aerosol layers over a time period of 1–2 weeks. For the volcanic ash-rich layers produced by the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption (June 2011), we obtain mean and median particulate lidar ratios of 69 ± 13 sr and 67 sr, respectively. For the sulfate-rich aerosol layers produced by Kasatochi (August 2008) and Sarychev Peak (June 2009), the means of the retrieved lidar ratios were 66 ± 19 sr (median 60 sr) and 63 ± 14 sr (median 59 sr), respectively. The 532 nm layer-integrated particulate depolarization ratios (δp) observed for the Puyehue layers (δp = 0.33 ± 0.03) were much larger than those found for the volcanic aerosol layers produced by the Kasatochi (δp = 0.09 ± 0.03) and Sarychev (δp = 0.05 ± 0.04) eruptions. However, for the Sarychev layers we observe an exponential decay (e-folding time of 3.6 days) in δp with time from 0.27 to 0.03. Similar decreases in the layer-integrated attenuated colour ratios with time were observed for the Sarychev case. In general, the Puyehue layers exhibited larger colour ratios (χ′ = 0.53 ± 0.07) than what was observed for the Kasatochi (χ′ = 0.35 ± 0.07) and Sarychev (χ′ = 0.32 ± 0.07) layers, indicating that the Puyehue layers were generally composed of larger particles. These observations are particularly relevant to the new stratospheric aerosol subtyping classification scheme, which has been incorporated into version 4 of the level 2 CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) data products

The 2019 Raikoke eruption as a testbed used by the Volcano Response group for rapid assessment of volcanic atmospheric impacts

The 21 June 2019 Raikoke eruption (48° N, 153° E) generated one of the largest amounts of sulfur emission to the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Satellite measurements indicate a consensus best estimate of 1.5 Tg for the sulfur dioxide (SO2) injected at an altitude of around 14–15 km. The peak Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean 525 nm stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) increased to 0.025, a factor of 3 higher than background levels. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption which significantly enhanced coordination efforts in the days after the eruption. A multi-platform satellite observation subgroup formed to prepare an initial report to present eruption parameters including SO2 emissions and their vertical distribution for the modeling community. It allowed us to make the first estimate of what would be the peak in SAOD 1 week after the eruption using a simple volcanic aerosol model. In this retrospective analysis, we show that revised volcanic SO2 injection profiles yield a higher peak injection of the SO2 mass. This highlights difficulties in accurately representing the vertical distribution for moderate SO2 explosive eruptions in the lowermost stratosphere due to limited vertical sensitivity of the current satellite sensors (±2 km accuracy) and low horizontal resolution of lidar observations. We also show that the SO2 lifetime initially assumed in the simple aerosol model was overestimated by 66 %, pointing to challenges for simple models to capture how the life cycle of volcanic gases and aerosols depends on the SO2 injection magnitude, latitude, and height. Using a revised injection profile, modeling results indicate a peak NH monthly mean SAOD at 525 nm of 0.024, in excellent agreement with observations, associated with a global monthly mean radiative forcing of −0.17 W m−2 resulting in an annual global mean surface temperature anomaly of −0.028 K. Given the relatively small magnitude of the forcing, it is unlikely that the surface response can be dissociated from surface temperature variability

The 2019 Raikoke eruption as a testbed used by the Volcano Response group for rapid assessment of volcanic atmospheric impacts

The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions

Treetop: A Shiny-based application and R package for extracting forest information from LiDAR data for ecologists and conservationists

Individual tree detection (ITD) and crown delineation are two of the most relevant methods for extracting detailed and reliable forest information from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) datasets. However, advanced computational skills and specialized knowledge have been normally required to extract forest information from LiDAR.The development of accessible tools for 3D forest characterization can facilitate rapid assessment by stakeholders lacking a remote sensing background, thus fostering the practical use of LiDAR datasets in forest ecology and conservation. This paper introduces the treetop application, an open-source web-based and R package LiDAR analysis tool for extracting forest structural information at the tree level, including cutting-edge analyses of properties related to forest ecology and management.We provide case studies of how treetop can be used for different ecological applications, within various forest ecosystems. Specifically, treetop was employed to assess post-hurricane disturbance in natural temperate forests, forest homogeneity in industrial forest plantations and the spatial distribution of individual trees in a tropical forest.treetop simplifies the extraction of relevant forest information for forest ecologists and conservationists who may use the tool to easily visualize tree positions and sizes, conduct complex analyses and download results including individual tree lists and figures summarizing forest structural properties. Through this open-source approach, treetop can foster the practical use of LiDAR data among forest conservation and management stakeholders and help ecological researchers to further understand the relationships between forest structure and function.The authors thank Nicholas L. Crookston for co‐developing the web‐LiDAR treetop tool, and the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions on the first version of the manuscript. This study is based on the work supported by the Department of Defence Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) under grants No. RC‐2243, RC19‐1064 and RC20‐1346 and USDA Forest Service (grand No. PRO00031122

The use of immunosuppressive therapy in MDS: clinical outcomes and their predictors in a large international patient cohort

Most studies of immunosuppressive therapy (IST) in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are limited by small numbers and their single-center nature, and report conflicting data regarding predictors for response to IST. We examined outcomes associated with IST and predictors of benefit in a large international cohort of patients with MDS. Data were collected from 15 centers in the United States and Europe. Responses, including red blood cell (RBC) transfusion independence (TI), were assessed based on the 2006 MDS International Working Group criteria, and overall survival (OS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. Logistic regression models estimated odds for response and TI, and Cox Proportional Hazard models estimated hazards ratios for OS. We identified 207 patients with MDS receiving IST, excluding steroid monotherapy. The most common IST regimen was anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) plus prednisone (43%). Overall response rate (ORR) was 48.8%, including 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5%-18.4%) who achieved a complete remission and 30% (95% CI, 22.3%-39.5%) who achieved RBC TI. Median OS was 47.4 months (95% CI, 37-72.3 months) and was longer for patients who achieved a response or TI. Achievement of RBC TI was associated with a hypocellular bone marrow (cellularity < 20%); horse ATG plus cyclosporine was more effective than rabbit ATG or ATG without cyclosporine. Age, transfusion dependence, presence of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria or large granular lymphocyte clones, and HLA DR15 positivity did not predict response to IST. IST leads to objective responses in nearly half the selected patients with the highest rate of RBC TI achieved in patients with hypocellular bone marrows

Effects of a balanced translocation between chromosomes 1 and 11 disrupting the DISC1 locus on white matter integrity

Objective Individuals carrying rare, but biologically informative genetic variants provide a unique opportunity to model major mental illness and inform understanding of disease mechanisms. The rarity of such variations means that their study involves small group numbers, however they are amongst the strongest known genetic risk factors for major mental illness and are likely to have large neural effects. DISC1 (Disrupted in Schizophrenia 1) is a gene containing one such risk variant, identified in a single Scottish family through its disruption by a balanced translocation of chromosomes 1 and 11; t(1;11) (q42.1;q14.3). Method Within the original pedigree, we examined the effects of the t(1;11) translocation on white matter integrity, measured by fractional anisotropy (FA). This included family members with (n = 7) and without (n = 13) the translocation, along with a clinical control sample of patients with psychosis (n = 34), and a group of healthy controls (n = 33). Results We report decreased white matter integrity in five clusters in the genu of the corpus callosum, the right inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, acoustic radiation and fornix. Analysis of the mixed psychosis group also demonstrated decreased white matter integrity in the above regions. FA values within the corpus callosum correlated significantly with positive psychotic symptom severity. Conclusions We demonstrate that the t(1;11) translocation is associated with reduced white matter integrity in frontal commissural and association fibre tracts. These findings overlap with those shown in affected patients with psychosis and in DISC1 animal models and highlight the value of rare but biologically informative mutations in modeling psychosis

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation