A description of within-family resource exchange networks in a Malawian village

In this paper we explore patterns of economic transfers between adults within household and family networks in a village in Malawi’s Rumphi district, using data from the 2006 round of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health. We fit Exponential-family Random Graph Models (ERGMs) to assess individual, relational, and higher-order network effects. The network effects of cyclic giving, reciprocity, and in-degree and out-degree distribution suggest a network with a tendency away from the formation of hierarchies or "hubs." Effects of age, sex, working status, education, health status, and kinship relation are also considered.Malawi, Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health, networks, resource exchange, social network

Political and Media Discourses about Integrating Refugees in the UK

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.This article addresses political and media discourses about integrating refugees in the UK in the context of the “refugee crisis”. A discursive psychological approach is presented as the best way to understand what talk about the concept is used to accomplish in these debates. A large corpus of political discussions (13 hours of debate featuring 146 politicians) and 960 newspaper articles from the UK were discourse analysed. The analysis identified five dilemmas about integration: Integration is positive and necessary, but challenging; Host communities are presented as welcoming, but there are limits to their capacity; Refugees are responsible for integration, but host communities need to provide support; Good refugees integrate, bad ones don't; Refugees are vulnerable and are skilled. All are used to warrant the inclusion or exclusion of refugees. The responsibility of western nations to support refugees is therefore contingent on the refugees behaving in specific ways

Estimating within-household contact networks from egocentric data

Acute respiratory diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Large-scale simulation models are used to predict epidemic dynamics and evaluate the impact of various interventions, but the contact behavior in these models is based on simplistic and strong assumptions which are not informed by survey data. These assumptions are also used for estimating transmission measures such as the basic reproductive number and secondary attack rates. Development of methodology to infer contact networks from survey data could improve these models and estimation methods. We contribute to this area by developing a model of within-household social contacts and using it to analyze the Belgian POLYMOD data set, which contains detailed diaries of social contacts in a 24-hour period. We model dependency in contact behavior through a latent variable indicating which household members are at home. We estimate age-specific probabilities of being at home and age-specific probabilities of contact conditional on two members being at home. Our results differ from the standard random mixing assumption. In addition, we find that the probability that all members contact each other on a given day is fairly low: 0.49 for households with two 0--5 year olds and two 19--35 year olds, and 0.36 for households with two 12--18 year olds and two 36+ year olds. We find higher contact rates in households with 2--3 members, helping explain the higher influenza secondary attack rates found in households of this size.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS474 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Estimating within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission

Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer durations of contacts to friends than nonfriends and more frequent contacts with friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We performed simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, we found that the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, we found that contact behavior was adequately represented by a static rather than dynamic contact network.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS505 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Toward an accurate mass function for precision cosmology

Cosmological surveys aim to use the evolution of the abundance of galaxy clusters to accurately constrain the cosmological model. In the context of LCDM, we show that it is possible to achieve the required percent level accuracy in the halo mass function with gravity-only cosmological simulations, and we provide simulation start and run parameter guidelines for doing so. Some previous works have had sufficient statistical precision, but lacked robust verification of absolute accuracy. Convergence tests of the mass function with, for example, simulation start redshift can exhibit false convergence of the mass function due to counteracting errors, potentially misleading one to infer overly optimistic estimations of simulation accuracy. Percent level accuracy is possible if initial condition particle mapping uses second order Lagrangian Perturbation Theory, and if the start epoch is between 10 and 50 expansion factors before the epoch of halo formation of interest. The mass function for halos with fewer than ~1000 particles is highly sensitive to simulation parameters and start redshift, implying a practical minimum mass resolution limit due to mass discreteness. The narrow range in converged start redshift suggests that it is not presently possible for a single simulation to capture accurately the cluster mass function while also starting early enough to model accurately the numbers of reionisation era galaxies, whose baryon feedback processes may affect later cluster properties. Ultimately, to fully exploit current and future cosmological surveys will require accurate modeling of baryon physics and observable properties, a formidable challenge for which accurate gravity-only simulations are just an initial step.Comment: revised in response to referee suggestions, MNRAS accepte

Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for Brazil

With rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity the age structure of the labor force in developing countries has changed rapidly. Changing relative supply of workers by age group, and by educational attainment, can have profound effects on labor costs. Their impacts on earnings have been heavily studied in the United States but have received little attention in Asia and Latin America, where supply shocks are at least as large and have often proceeded less evenly across the economy. We use data on 502 local Brazilian labor markets from Censuses 1970-2000 to examine the extent of substitution among demographic groups as relative supply has changed. The results suggest that age-education groups are imperfect substitutes, so that larger age-education cohorts see depressed wage rates, particularly among more-educated groups. The extent of substitution has increased over time, so that the decreasing size of the least-skilled labor force today is barely raising its remaining members' wages.

The Peak Brightness and Spatial Distribution of AGB Stars Near the Nucleus of M32

The bright stellar content near the center of the Local Group elliptical galaxy M32 is investigated with 0.12 arcsec FWHM H and K images obtained with the Gemini Mauna Kea telescope. Stars with K = 15.5, which are likely evolving near the tip of the asymptotic giant branch (AGB), are resolved to within 2 arcsec of the nucleus, and it is concluded that the peak stellar brightness near the center of M32 is similar to that in the outer regions of the galaxy. Moreover, the projected density of bright AGB stars follows the visible light profile to within 2 arcsec of the nucleus, indicating that the brightest stars are well mixed throughout the galaxy. Thus, there is no evidence for an age gradient, and the radial variations in spectroscopic indices and ultraviolet colors that have been detected previously must be due to metallicity and/or some other parameter. We suggest that either the bright AGB stars formed as part of a highly uniform and coherent galaxy-wide episode of star formation, or they originated in a separate system that merged with M32.Comment: 9 pages of text, 3 figures. ApJ (Letters) in pres

The Relative Importance of Different Trophic Pathways for Secondary Exposure to Anticoagulant Rodenticides

Secondary exposure of predators to anticoagulant rodenticides, and in particular second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs), is a global phenomenon. The widespread and large-scale nature of this exposure has attracted considerable concern, although the consequences in terms of likelihood of poisoning of individuals and resultant impacts on populations are not well characterised. Secondary exposure of predators may as rise from once or more of: (i) eating contaminated commensal rodents subject to control (target species are typically rats and house mice); (ii) consumption of contaminated non-target small mammals (such as Peromyscus, Microtus, and Apodemus species) that encounter and feed on what are rodent-attractive baits; (iii) consumption of non-rodent vertebrate and invertebrate prey that may also incidentally encounter and eat baits. We hypothesised that predators feeding primarily on target species may be most at risk of exposure to SGARs while those predominantly taking non-mammalian prey may be at least risk. We tested this hypothesis by comparing exposure, determined from the presence and magnitude of SGAR liver residues, in red kites (Milvus milvus), which feeds extensively on rats, in barn owls (Tyto alba), kestrels (Falco tinnunculus), and tawny owls (Strix aluco) that feed widely on non-target small mammals, and in sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus) that feed predominantly on small birds. We found that the scale and magnitude of exposure was broadly consistent with our hypothesis, and that controlling for age in the analysis could be important as older birds can accumulate residues with age. However, exposure in kestrels was typically greater than that in barn owls and tawny owls, despite what is thought to be a general similarity among the species in their diets. We discuss the relative importance of trophic pathways relative to other factors that may drive secondary exposure in predators, and confirm that species that feed on rats or other target species may be at most risk of exposure and poisoning