Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages

Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets

We examine correlation dynamics using daily data from 1993 to 2002 on the 5 largest eurozone stock market indices. We also study, for comparison, the correlations of a sample of individual stocks. We employ both unconditional and conditional estimation methodologies,including estimation of the conditional correlations using the symmetric and asymmetric DCC-MVGARCH model, extended with the inclusion of a deterministic time trend. We confirm the presence of a structural break in market index correlations reported by previous researchers and, using an innovative likelihood-based search, we find that it occurred at the beginning the process of monetary integration in the Euro-zone. We find mixed evidence of asymmetric correlation reactions to news of the type modelled by conventional asymmetric DCC-MVGARCH specifications.Correlation Dynamics, GARCH

New Tools for the Governance of the Academic Research in Italy: the Role of Research Evaluation

Evaluation has been put on the agenda of most Governments as a central process to enhance the public research institutions’ performance (Geuna, 1999, Geuna and Martin, 2003, Shapira and Kuhlman, 2003). New agencies or intermediate bodies have been settled up, both at the Government and at the institutions’ level, aiming to assess the quality of research and its impact on the socio-economic environment. In Italy, the pressure for a greater accountability of the public research institutions started at the beginning of nineties, but the system was deeply modified in 1999. Moreover, the Government at the beginning of 2004 launched a formalised evaluation exercise (the VTR), aimed to assess the research performance of all the public institutions (Universities and public research agencies) across scientific fields, for a three-years period. The modification recently introduced in the Government criteria for the core funding allocation to the Universities would assure the impact of VTR results on funding decisions. Different key interested groups, both from academics (Conference of Rectors) and from stakeholders (mainly Industrial Associations), contributed to the development of the described process, by interacting with the Government and with the intermediate bodies in charge for establishing the evaluation procedures. The aim of the paper is to investigate how the new evaluation procedures, even at this early stage, have been implemented by the public research institutions, and how these procedures are changing the internal models of research direction and organisation. The paper was prepared for the Sociology of the Sciences Yearbook Conference on “Changing Knowledge Production through Evaluation” Bielefeld, 9-11 June 2005Academic research; Governance; Research Evaluation; Accountability; Research assessment

Idiosyncratic Risk, Market Risk and Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets

We examine total, market and idiosyncratic risk and correlation dynamics using daily data from 1993 to 2001 on the 6 largest euro-zone stock market indices and 42 firms from the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50 index. We also estimate conditional correlations using the asymmetric DCC-MVGARCH model. Comparing our results with those of Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel and Xu (2001), stock correlations are higher and have declined less in the euro-zone than in the United States over the 1990s, implying a lower benefit from diversification strategies. By contrast,correlations amongst market indices have risen, with a structural break related to the process of financial integration in the euro-zone.WTO, agricultural protection, trade liberalization, poverty alleviation

Have European Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Investigation of Idiosyncratic and Market Risk in the Euro Area

We examine the dynamics of idiosyncratic risk, market risk and return correlations in European equity markets using weekly observations from 3515 stocks listed in the 12 Euro area stock markets over the period 1974-2004. Similarly to Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel and Xu (2001), we find a rise in idiosyncratic volatility, implying that it now takes more stocks to diversify away idiosyncratic risk. Contrary to the United States , however, market risk is trended upwards in Europe and correlations are not trended downwards. Both the volatility and correlation measures are pro-cyclical, and they rise during times of low market returns. Market and average idiosyncratic volatility jointly predict market wide returns, and the latter impact upon both market and idiosyncratic volatility. This has asset pricing and risk management implications.Idiosyncratic risk, correlation, portfolio management, asset pricing

The patenting regime in the Italian public research system: what motivates public inventors to patent

The paper deals with two aspects: the public ownership of intellectual property rights and the holding of the title (individuals vs institutions) for the public financed research. A key problem in the past and still now in Europe has been the low transfer of results coming from public research to industrial users. Recently a new trend developed which favours the patenting of the scientific results of public actors. This change partly comes from the modification of the public funding mechanism of allocation and goes with changes in the regulation and regime related to the ownership of intellectual property rights. The paper is built on a pilot study, which controlled if and how the modification in national regulation affected the actors’ behaviour. It is based on a survey of public inventors, in two public institutions (Cnr and Roma 1 University) who disclosed their inventions to the institutions in the last three years; on interviews with the responsible persons of the patent offices in the two institutions and on some data from the Cnr 2005 patent portfolio. This pilot study on public patenting in Italy seems to confirm the persistence of the academic incentives in the patenting activities of the public research institutions, even in presence of the 2001 patenting regime, aimed to assign IPR title to the public inventors. Furthermore the results highlight the presence of a relation between public institutions and firms that are not completely captured by the patenting indicators. Patents are only the emerging part of a more large hidden area of relationships between public institutions and industrial firms.Public patenting, Regulation on public patenting, Incentives for public inventors, Determinants of public patenting

Evaluating the Effect of Public Subsidies on firm R&D activity: an Application to Italy Using the Community Innovation Survey

The aim of the paper is twofold: to verify a full policy failure of public support on private R&D effort, when in presence of a potential plurality of public incentives; to compare the most recent econometric methods used for the analysis of the input additionality. Compared to previous studies our work wants to trace out an advance in two directions: adding more robustness by comparing results from various econometric techniques and providing an analysis of the R&D policy effect behind the average results. A by-product of the paper is a taxonomy of the econometric methods used in the literature, according to the structure of the models, the type of dataset and the available policy information. We exploit the third wave of the Community Innovation Survey for Italy (1998-2000) with a sample size of 1,221 supported and 1,319 non-supported firms. Given the used type of data, the article presents two main limits: first, we do not know the level of the subsidy, so that we can control only for the presence of a total crowding-out; second, we can check only the short-run effect of the supporting policy, while an increase in the private R&D effort could be more likely in the medium term. Our results suggest that: 1. the main factors influencing the probability to participate to the incentive policy are R&D experience, human skills, liquidity constraints, but also foreign capital ownership; 2. on average, the total substitution of private funding by the public one is excluded for Italy as a whole, although some cases of total crowding-out are found: low knowledge intensive services, very small firms (10-19 employees) and the auto-vehicle industry. We get, on average, 885 additional thousand Euros of R&D expenditure per firm with a ratio equal to 4.62: it means that if a generic control unit does 1 thousand Euros of R&D expenditure a matched treated does 4.62 thousand Euros. The additionality for the R&D intensity is about 0.014 with a ratio of about 2.67.Business R&D; Public Incentives; Econometric Evaluation

Changing patterns in the steering of the University in Italy: funding rules and doctoral programmes

The paper aim is to highlight the transformation of the state-university relationships in Italy, because of the introduction of the autonomy-accountability principles for the university government. The focus is on funding rules and procedures and doctoral programmes as examples of changes of the university steering. The analysis is carried out taking into account two different government theories, namely the New Public Management (NPM) and the Network-based governance system (NBG). The work is based both on the literature related to the steering of the Italian Universities, and on the Government’s acts (laws and related official documents). The paper is the first deliverable of the Project “The steering of Universities. A comparative research on the impact of new rules and actors on University governance” – SUN, developed within PRIME - Network of Excellence (VI EU Framework Program).Higher Education; Governance; Doctoral Programs; R&D Funding; NPM

RELEVANSI DAN URGENSI TERHADAP PERATURAN DAERAH TENTANG PENYELENGGARAAN KETENAGAKERJAAN DI PROVINSI KEPULAUAN RIAU

Employment problems in Indonesia have recently become very complex. Workers' demonstrations that occur as a result of prosecution of decent wages, working conditions, outsorcing, foreign workers, and the transfer of labor inspection authority from Regency / City to provinces and so on have disrupted the investment climate in Indonesia, especially in Riau Islands Province. This study, entitled The Relevance and Urgency of Regional Regulations concerning employment in the Riau Islands Province, aims to find out the relevance and urgency of a regulation, namely the Regional Scope of Employment in the Riau Islands Province. The method used in this study is the Forum Discussion Group (FGD) of various stakeholders. In order to make the implementation of labor in the Riau Islands Province a success, Riau Islands Provincial Government is expected to take a more active role through empowering internal resources through the APBD so that it can synergize with the central government program financed by the APBN. Synergy is expected to be realized through additional funding allocations to increase the capacity of the workforce in Riau Islands Province. The central government which has provided enough stimulation to the Regional Government must be followed by positive steps to add it through the APBD of the Riau Islands Province. So it is expected that in the future Riau Islands Province will have a competent, superior, and capable workforce in the global market.Masalah ketenagakerjaan di Indonesia akhir-akhir ini menjadi sangat rumit. Demonstrasi pekerja yang terjadi sebagai akibat dari penuntutan upah yang layak, kondisi kerja, outsorcing, pekerja asing, dan transfer otoritas pengawasan tenaga kerja dari Kabupaten / Kota ke provinsi dan sebagainya telah mengganggu iklim investasi di Indonesia, terutama di Kepulauan Riau. Propinsi. Penelitian yang berjudul Relevansi dan Urgensi Peraturan Daerah tentang ketenagakerjaan di Provinsi Kepulauan Riau ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui relevansi dan urgensi suatu peraturan, yaitu Ruang Lingkup Pekerjaan di Provinsi Kepulauan Riau. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Forum Diskusi Kelompok (FGD) dari berbagai pemangku kepentingan. Agar pelaksanaan tenaga kerja di Provinsi Kepulauan Riau berhasil, Pemerintah Provinsi Kepulauan Riau diharapkan dapat mengambil peran yang lebih aktif melalui pemberdayaan sumber daya internal melalui APBD sehingga dapat bersinergi dengan program pemerintah pusat yang dibiayai oleh APBN. Sinergi diharapkan dapat diwujudkan melalui alokasi dana tambahan untuk meningkatkan kapasitas tenaga kerja di Provinsi Kepulauan Riau. Pemerintah pusat yang telah memberikan stimulasi yang cukup kepada Pemerintah Daerah harus diikuti oleh langkah-langkah positif untuk menambahkannya melalui APBD Provinsi Kepulauan Riau. Jadi diharapkan bahwa di masa depan Provinsi Kepulauan Riau akan memiliki tenaga kerja yang kompeten, unggul, dan mampu di pasar global

Reasons For Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Discontinuation Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women At Risk for HIV Infection

Background: HIV is transmitted by body fluids. As of 2017, 36.9 million people worldwide live with HIV. In Thailand, about 440,000 people live with HIV, accounting for 9% of the region’s total population of people living with HIV. Thus Thailand has high HIV prevalence in the Asia Pacific region. Prevention strategies are effective in the transmission and acquisition of HIV. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is the most effective HIV prevention option with an HIV prevention efficacy of 92% when the virus is detected in the blood. When taken in tandem with condoms and adherence to the PrEP regimen, these preventive measures can result in 100% efficacy of preventing the transmission and acquisition of HIV, and sexually transmitted infections (STI). PrEP is offered to anyone who is at risk of HIV infection such as men who have sex with men (MSM), sex workers, transgender women (TGW), and people who inject drugs (PWID). More than half of new HIV infections occur in MSM and TGW in Thailand. In order to provide prevention assistance for these key populations, PrEP is offered to them free of charge through the Princess PrEP Program. Objective: To assess reasons behind discontinuation of PrEP offered free of charge among high-risk populations in Bangkok, Thailand. Materials and Methods: The reasons for discontinuation was explored using a behavior and risk factor survey to better explore why clients discontinue PrEP. Surveys were sent through online messenger, email, and mail, in which 120 surveys were returned. Results: 92 out of 120 respondents (70%) discontinued PrEP. Among TGW and MSM, the main reason for discontinuing PrEP was the fact that clients felt that they were no longer at risk. Over 30% respondents reported that they were no longer at risk, and 60% said they would restart PrEP when their risk increases. Self reported risk behaviors were that of the clients who reported to not be at risk, 43% may not be using condoms, and more than 50% did not return for testing. Conclusion: At-risk clients misperceive their HIV risk. These results will help in further promoting PrEP services to provide knowledge and discussions for clients about HIV risks, and how to lower risk.MHIRT Progra