Elections and sovereign debt in advanced economies

This article argues that advanced economies never eradicated political risk. We demonstrate that elections had large impacts on the long-term interest rates of nineteen countries in 130 elections over thirty years. Using an event-study methodology, we calculate that the resolution of uncertainty on the announcement of election results reduces interest rates. Very little of the variation is explained by economic variables. By contrast, familiar variables from comparative politics provide powerful explanations of variation in the impact of elections on borrowing rates. The biggest is ideology: the larger the swing towards the right in the parliament the larger the reduction in the interest rate. Two other variables also matter through their role in uncertainty. Close elections increase uncertainty during the campaign, leading to a greater reduction in uncertainty when the result is announced and a drop in the interest rate. By contrast, consensual institutions reduce uncertainty during campaigns and therefore do not reduce the interest rate. Political economists should not ask whether there is political risk or not. Rather they need to calculate how much risk there is and explain variation

Austerity and credibility in the Eurozone

During the euro crisis policy-makers tried to re-establish credibility with austere budgets. Studies of austerity have been plagued by measurement and endogeneity problems. We provide a direct test of the effect of austerity on confidence by calculating the immediate impact of austere budgets on government bonds. We build a unique database of budget dates and conduct event studies of 223 (future) Eurozone budgets. Since austere budgets are enacted in particular circumstances, we use a treatment effects design to measure markets’ responses. Our findings are discouraging for the argument that austerity can provide a positive credibility shock. Markets do not welcome austerity. On the contrary, austere budgets are associated with substantial interest rate increases. These results underline how constrained governments are in debt crises

Italian debt and Covid-19: how do financial markets diagnose Europe’s underlying condition?

What do financial markets make of the economic impact from the Covid-19 pandemic? Iain McMenamin, Michael Breen and Juan Muñoz-Portillo track how the markets have judged the risk of an Italian default since the start of the crisis. They write the market response appears to have been driven in part by the level of solidarity shown from other EU states

Efecto organoprotector de solanum tuberosum en modelo agudo de úlcera gástrica inducido por indometacina en ratones

La formación de las úlceras gástricas es consecuencia de un desequilibrio entre una gran variedad de factores protectores y factores lesivos. Sin embargo, actualmente el tratamiento está basado en el uso de medicamentos antiulcerosos, principalmente inhibidores de la bomba de protones, antagonistas H2 y el tratamiento enfocado a la erradicación de H. pylori cuando existe evidencia de su infección. Los principales problemas encontrados en estos tratamientos son su alto costo, la resistencia a antibióticos y la falla terapéutica debido a la compleja etiología de esta patología. Siendo en éstos, donde la medicina natural, alternativa y las etnoprácticas han encontrado un espacio por medio de la búsqueda de sustancias con actividad citoprotectora ó gastroprotectoras y sustancias con ambas actividades conocidas como organoprotectoras. Es conocido además que muchos extractos de plantas medicinales pueden tener actividad cicatrizante. Dentro de estas alternativas una de las descritas por la población general en cuanto al tratamiento de síntomas gástricos en nuestro país y Latinoamérica es el uso de extractos de Solanum tuberosum (S. tuberosum, papa), los cuales se cree que tienen múltiples efectosTerapéuticos. Pese a su frecuente uso hay pocos estudios que comprueben estos efectos. Por ende nos planteamos la siguiente pregunta: ¿Existe un efecto organoprotector de S. tuberosum en modelo de úlcera gástrica inducido de forma aguda por Indometacinaen en ratones

Efficacy and Renal Outcomes of SGLT2 Inhibitors in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease

Objective: To review glucose-lowering efficacy and changes in renal function associated with sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Data sources: A literature search of MEDLINE and Cochrane databases was performed from 2000 to August 2018 using search terms: SGLT2 inhibitors, sodium glucose co-transporter 2, canagliflozin, empagliflozin, dapagliflozin, ertugliflozin, and chronic kidney disease. References of identified articles were also reviewed. Study selection and data extraction: English-language studies investigating glucose-lowering endpoints and/or changes in renal function with one of four U.S. approved SGLT2 inhibitors were included. A total of 10 studies met inclusion criteria and are included in this review. Results: In patients with T2DM and CKD, SGLT2 inhibitors are modestly effective in lowering hemoglobin A1C and fasting plasma glucose compared to placebo. Small reductions in eGFR are seen shortly after initiating therapy with SGLT2 inhibitors, but return to baseline levels after discontinuation. SGLT2 inhibitors are associated with a substantial reduction in albuminuria and reduced risk of progression to albuminuria. Conclusions: In patients with T2DM and CKD, SGLT2 inhibitors have a decreased glucose-lowering effect compared to patients without CKD. Renal benefits among patients with CKD are similar to those without CKD and include a significant reduction in albuminuria and reduced incidence of worsening albuminuria. Given that CKD and T2DM are both associated with increased cardiovascular risk, we believe these agents should considered as preferred add-on agents in most patients with uncontrolled T2DM and eGFR \u3e30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Ongoing studies will provide additional information as to whether these agents should be added to the current standard of care for CKD patients, with and without T2DM

Effects of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Aim To evaluate the cardiovascular outcomes of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Materials and Methods We searched PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases for randomized controlled trials reporting event rates for a composite cardiovascular outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with T2DM and CKD receiving GLP1-RA or placebo. Studies were restricted to those reporting specific event rates for patients with CKD separately from the overall population. We conducted a meta-analysis using a random-effects model. This meta-analysis was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022320157). Results A total of four studies comprising 7130 patients was included in our analysis. Four different GLP1-RA were assessed in a population with CKD defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) \u3c60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Treatment with GLP1-RA was not associated with a significant reduction in the composite cardiovascular end point of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke (odds ratio (OR) 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59–1.07; p = 0.13) among patients with T2DM and CKD. Individual components of the composite cardiovascular end point were assessed in two trials and did not show evidence of an effect of GLP1-RA in reducing cardiovascular end points. Conclusions Pooled analysis of clinical trials reporting separate cardiovascular events rates in patients with T2DM and CKD did not find GLP1-RA to be associated with a reduction in composite cardiovascular event rates. Select GLP1-RA may offer cardiovascular event reduction in patients with T2DM and CKD, but this does not appear to be a class effect. Use of GLP1-RA with demonstrated cardiovascular benefits should be preferred in patients with CKD and T2DM to further reduce cardiovascular risk

Two-level games and market constraints on politics in Europe

Financial markets understood the euro crisis as a two-level game. They monitored national politics as a source of both national and European policy. The incentives to conform to the market’s preference were weaker for creditor countries than for debtor countries because debtors were providers of their own macroeconomic policy, but each creditor was one of several contributing to bailouts. Worries about default caused investors to sell the bonds of debtors and thereby constrained debtors by raising interest rates. By contrast, if creditor behaviour reduced the probability of a bailout of debtors, the response again would be to sell assets linked to the debtor. The implication is that market responses to creditor elections should have been larger and more turbulent than reactions to debtor elections. We test this theory by analyzing credit default swaps of eleven countries around fifteen elections and conducting a content analysis of 3,126 reports from Bloomberg terminals

Genome-wide analysis of the PreA/PreB (QseB/QseC) regulon of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The <it>Salmonella </it>PreA/PreB two-component system (TCS) is an ortholog of the QseBC TCS of <it>Escherichia coli</it>. In both <it>Salmonella </it>and <it>E. coli</it>, this system has been shown to affect motility and virulence in response to quorum-sensing and hormonal signals, and to affect the transcription of the <it>Salmonella enterica </it>serovar Typhimurium (<it>S</it>. Typhimurium) <it>pmrAB </it>operon, which encodes an important virulence-associated TCS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>To determine the PreA/PreB regulon in <it>S</it>. Typhimurium, we performed DNA microarrays comparing the wild type strain and various <it>preA </it>and/or <it>preB </it>mutants in the presence of ectopically expressed <it>preA </it>(<it>qseB</it>). These data confirmed our previous findings of the negative effect of PreB on PreA gene regulation and identified candidate PreA-regulated genes. A proportion of the activated loci were previously identified as PmrA-activated genes (<it>yibD</it>, <it>pmrAB</it>, <it>cptA</it>, etc.) or were genes located in the local region around <it>preA</it>, including the <it>preAB </it>operon. The transcriptional units were defined in this local region by RT-PCR, suggesting three PreA activated operons composed of <it>preA-preB</it>, <it>mdaB-ygiN</it>, and <it>ygiW</it>-STM3175. Several putative virulence-related phenotypes were examined for <it>preAB </it>mutants, resulting in the observation of a host cell invasion and slight virulence defect of a <it>preAB </it>mutant. Contrary to previous reports on this TCS, we were unable to show a PreA/PreB-dependent effect of the quorum-sensing signal AI-2 or of epinephrine on <it>S</it>. Typhimurium with regard to bacterial motility.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This work further characterizes this unorthadox OmpR/EnvZ class TCS and provides novel candidate regulated genes for further study. This first in-depth study of the PreA/PreB regulatory system phenotypes and regulation suggests significant comparative differences to the reported function of the orthologous QseB/QseC in <it>E. coli</it>.</p

Understanding User Perceptions of Trustworthiness in E-recruitment Systems

Algorithmic systems are increasingly deployed to make decisions that people used to make. Perceptions of these systems can significantly influence their adoption, yet, broadly speaking, users’ understanding of the internal working of these systems is limited. To explore users’ perceptions of algorithmic systems, we developed a prototype e-recruitment system called Algorithm Playground where we offer the users a look behind the scenes of such systems, and provide “how” and “why” explanations on how job applicants are ranked by their algorithms. Using an online study with 110 participants, we measured perceived fairness, transparency and trustworthiness of e-recruitment systems. Our results show that user understanding of the data and reasoning behind candidates’ rankings and selection evoked some positive attitudes as participants rated our platform to be fairer, more reliable, transparent and trustworthy than the e-recruitment systems they have used in the past

Bayesian location of the QCD critical point from a holographic perspective

A fundamental question in QCD is the existence of a phase transition at large doping of quarks over antiquarks. We present the first prediction of a QCD critical point (CP) from a Bayesian analysis constrained by first principle results at zero doping. We employ the gauge/gravity duality to map QCD onto a theory of dual black holes. Predictions for the CP location in different realizations of the model overlap at one sigma. Even if many prior samples do not include a CP, one is found in nearly 100% of posterior samples, indicating a strong preference for a CP.Comment: 5p, 4 figures + references + supplemental material (8p, 5 figures