Estimate of vertical transmission of Hepatitis C virus in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts.

Despite a combination of high Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence, a large adult population and high fertility, no published estimates of the scale and contribution of vertical transmission to HCV incidence in Pakistan exist. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of new HCV infections occurring in Pakistan as a result of vertical transmission. We adapted a published mathematical model based on HCV antibody and viraemia prevalence, fertility rates, risk of HCV vertical transmission and children mortality rates to estimate the number of infections in the 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts nationally and in four subnational regions. We estimated that 19 708 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 15 941-23 819) children were vertically infected by HCV in 2007 and 21 676 (95% UI: 17 498-26 126) in 2012. The majority of these cases (72.9% and 72.5% in 2007 and 2012, respectively) occurred in Punjab. We estimated that vertical transmission as a mode of exposure accounted for a quarter of HCV infections among children under 5 years of age (25.2% in 2007 and 24.0% in 2012). CONCLUSION: Our results showed that one in 260 children born in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 acquired HCV vertically. While currently no interventions during pregnancy and childbirth are recommended to reduce this risk, prevention, testing and treatment strategies should be considered to reduce the burden of vertical HCV infections among young children. Other routes of transmission appear to contribute the majority of HCV infections among children and must also be clarified and urgently addressed

Estimate of vertical transmission of Hepatitis C virus in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts.

Despite a combination of high Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence, a large adult population and high fertility, no published estimates of the scale and contribution of vertical transmission to HCV incidence in Pakistan exist. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of new HCV infections occurring in Pakistan as a result of vertical transmission. We adapted a published mathematical model based on HCV antibody and viraemia prevalence, fertility rates, risk of HCV vertical transmission and children mortality rates to estimate the number of infections in the 2007 and 2012 birth cohorts nationally and in four subnational regions. We estimated that 19 708 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 15 941-23 819) children were vertically infected by HCV in 2007 and 21 676 (95% UI: 17 498-26 126) in 2012. The majority of these cases (72.9% and 72.5% in 2007 and 2012, respectively) occurred in Punjab. We estimated that vertical transmission as a mode of exposure accounted for a quarter of HCV infections among children under 5 years of age (25.2% in 2007 and 24.0% in 2012). CONCLUSION: Our results showed that one in 260 children born in Pakistan in 2007 and 2012 acquired HCV vertically. While currently no interventions during pregnancy and childbirth are recommended to reduce this risk, prevention, testing and treatment strategies should be considered to reduce the burden of vertical HCV infections among young children. Other routes of transmission appear to contribute the majority of HCV infections among children and must also be clarified and urgently addressed

Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC) expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning.</p

Rural to Urban Migration and Changes in Cardiovascular risk Factors in Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study.

High levels of rural to urban migration are a feature of most African countries. Our aim was to investigate changes, and their determinants, in cardiovascular risk factors on rural to urban migration in Tanzania. Men and women (15 to 59 years) intending to migrate from Morogoro rural region to Dar es Salaam for at least 6 months were identified. Measurements were made at least one week but no more than one month prior to migration, and 1 to 3 monthly after migration. Outcome measures included body mass index, blood pressure, fasting lipids, and self reported physical activity and diet. One hundred and three men, 106 women, mean age 29 years, were recruited and 132 (63.2%) followed to 12 months. All the figures presented here refer to the difference between baseline and 12 months in these 132 individuals. Vigorous physical activity declined (79.4% to 26.5% in men, 37.8% to 15.6% in women, p < 0.001), and weight increased (2.30 kg men, 2.35 kg women, p < 0.001). Intake of red meat increased, but so did the intake of fresh fruit and vegetables. HDL cholesterol increased in men and women (0.24, 0.25 mmoll-1 respectively, p < 0.001); and in men, not women, total cholesterol increased (0.42 mmoll-1, p = 0.01), and triglycerides fell (0.31 mmoll-1, p = 0.034). Blood pressure appeared to fall in both men and women. For example, in men systolic blood pressure fell by 5.4 mmHg, p = 0.007, and in women by 8.6 mmHg, p = 0.001. The lower level of physical activity and increasing weight will increase the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, changes in diet were mixed, and may have contributed to mixed changes in lipid profiles and a lack of rise in blood pressure. A better understanding of the changes occurring on rural to urban migration is needed to guide preventive measures

Uneven progress in reducing exposure to violence at home for New Zealand adolescents 2001–2012: a nationally representative cross‐sectional survey series

Objective: To explore trends, and identify risk factors, that may explain changes in adolescent exposure to family violence over time.Methods: Data for this study was drawn from the Youth 2000 series of cross‐sectional surveys, carried out with New Zealand high school students in 2001, 2007 and 2012. Latent class analysis was used to understand different patterns of exposure to multiple risks for witnessing violence at home among adolescents.Results: Across all time periods, there was no change in witnessing emotional violence and a slight decline in witnessing physical violence at home. However, significant differences were noted between 2001 and 2007, and 2007 and 2012, in the proportion of adolescents who reported witnessing emotional and physical violence. Four latent classes were identified in the study sample; these were characterised by respondents' ethnicity, concerns about family relationships, food security and alcohol consumption. For two groups (characterised by food security, positive relationships and lower exposure to physical violence), there was a reduction in the proportion of respondents who witnessed physical violence but an increase in the proportion who witnessed emotional violence between 2001 and 2012. For the two groups characterised by poorer food security and higher exposure to physical violence, there were no changes in witnessing of physical violence in the home.Implications for public health: In addition to strategies directly aimed at violence, policies are needed to address key predictors of violence exposure such as social disparities, financial stress and alcohol use. These social determinants of health cannot be ignored

Analyzing the relationship between urbanization, food supply and demand, and irrigation requirements in Jordan

The landscape surrounding urban areas is often used as farmland. With the observed expansion of urban areas over the last decades and a projected continuation of this trend, our objective was to analyze how urbanization affects food supply and demand in The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. We used a chain of simulation models covering components of the atmosphere (climate simulations), biosphere (crop yield calculations), and anthroposphere (simulations of urban expansion and land-use change) to calculate the effect of farmland displacement on land and water resources (hydrosphere). Our simulations show that the displacement of farmland itself has hardly any effect on cropland demand, crop yields, or irrigation water requirements. These results indicate that Jordan has sufficient productive areas available to buffer effects of urban expansion on food production for the next decades. However, this picture changes dramatically once we include changes in socioeconomy and climate in our simulations. The isolated effect of climate change results in an expected increase in irrigation water requirements of 19 MCM by 2025 and 64 MCM by 2050. It furthermore leads to an increase in cropland area of 147 km2 by 2025 and 265 km2 by 2050. While the combined analysis of urban expansion, climate change, and socioeconomic change makes optimistic assumptions on the increase in crop yields by 2050, the results still indicate a pronounced effect on cropland demands (2700 km2) and a steep increase in irrigation water requirements (439 MCM). Our simulation results highlight the importance of high resolution, spatially explicit projections of future land changes as well as the importance of spatiotemporal scenario studies at the regional level to help improving water planning strategies.The research presented in this manuscript was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research [contract 01LW0502]. We would like to thank our colleagues from IMK-559 IFU for providing the climate data without which this study would not have been possible. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped improve the quality of this manuscript.YesThis journal operates a single blind review process. All contributions will be initially assessed by the editor for suitability for the journal. Papers deemed suitable are then typically sent to a minimum of two independent expert reviewers to assess the scientific quality of the paper. The Editor is responsible for the final decision regarding acceptance or rejection of articles. The Editor's decision is final

Psychosocial implications of tubal ligation in a rural health district: A phenomenological study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tubal ligation is the most popular family planning method worldwide. While its benefits, such as effectiveness in protecting against pregnancies, minimal need for long-term follow-up and low side-effects profile are well documented, it has many reported complications. However, to date, these complications have not been described by residents in Congo. Therefore, the study aimed at exploring the experience of women who had undergone tubal ligation, focusing on perceptions of physical, psychological and contextual experiences of participants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This qualitative study used a semi-structured questionnaire in a phenomenological paradigm to collect data. Fifteen participants were purposefully selected among sterilized women who had a ligation procedure performed, were aged between 30 and 40 years, and were living within the catchment area of the district hospital. Data were collected by two registered nurses, tape-recorded, and transcribed verbatim. Reading and re-reading cut and paste techniques, and integration were used to establish codes, categories, themes, and description.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Diverse and sometimes opposite changes in somatic symptoms, psychological symptoms, productivity, ecological relationships, doctor-client relationships, ethical issues, and change of life style were the major problem domains.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Clients reported conflicting experiences in several areas of their lives after tubal sterilization. Management, including awareness of the particular features of the client, is needed to decrease the likelihood of psychosocial morbidity and/or to select clients in need of sterilization.</p

Social network types and functional dependency in older adults in Mexico

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Social networks play a key role in caring for older adults. A better understanding of the characteristics of different social networks types (TSNs) in a given community provides useful information for designing policies to care for this age group. Therefore this study has three objectives: 1) To derive the TSNs among older adults affiliated with the Mexican Institute of Social Security; 2) To describe the main characteristics of the older adults in each TSN, including the instrumental and economic support they receive and their satisfaction with the network; 3) To determine the association between functional dependency and the type of social network.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Secondary data analysis of the 2006 Survey of Autonomy and Dependency (N = 3,348). The TSNs were identified using the structural approach and cluster analysis. The association between functional dependency and the TSNs was evaluated with Poisson regression with robust variance analysis in which socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle and medical history covariates were included.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified five TSNs: diverse with community participation (12.1%), diverse without community participation (44.3%); widowed (32.0%); nonfriends-restricted (7.6%); nonfamily-restricted (4.0%). Older adults belonging to widowed and restricted networks showed a higher proportion of dependency, negative self-rated health and depression. Older adults with functional dependency more likely belonged to a widowed network (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.5; 95%CI: 1.1-2.1).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The derived TSNs were similar to those described in developed countries. However, we identified the existence of a diverse network without community participation and a widowed network that have not been previously described. These TSNs and restricted networks represent a potential unmet need of social security affiliates.</p