Bayes and health care research.

Bayes’ rule shows how one might rationally change one’s beliefs in the light of evidence. It is the foundation of a statistical method called Bayesianism. In health care research, Bayesianism has its advocates but the dominant statistical method is frequentism. There are at least two important philosophical differences between these methods. First, Bayesianism takes a subjectivist view of probability (i.e. that probability scores are statements of subjective belief, not objective fact) whilst frequentism takes an objectivist view. Second, Bayesianism is explicitly inductive (i.e. it shows how we may induce views about the world based on partial data from it) whereas frequentism is at least compatible with non-inductive views of scientific method, particularly the critical realism of Popper. Popper and others detail significant problems with induction. Frequentism’s apparent ability to avoid these, plus its ability to give a seemingly more scientific and objective take on probability, lies behind its philosophical appeal to health care researchers. However, there are also significant problems with frequentism, particularly its inability to assign probability scores to single events. Popper thus proposed an alternative objectivist view of probability, called propensity theory, which he allies to a theory of corroboration; but this too has significant problems, in particular, it may not successfully avoid induction. If this is so then Bayesianism might be philosophically the strongest of the statistical approaches. The article sets out a number of its philosophical and methodological attractions. Finally, it outlines a way in which critical realism and Bayesianism might work together. </p

A Topos Foundation for Theories of Physics: I. Formal Languages for Physics

This paper is the first in a series whose goal is to develop a fundamentally new way of constructing theories of physics. The motivation comes from a desire to address certain deep issues that arise when contemplating quantum theories of space and time. Our basic contention is that constructing a theory of physics is equivalent to finding a representation in a topos of a certain formal language that is attached to the system. Classical physics arises when the topos is the category of sets. Other types of theory employ a different topos. In this paper we discuss two different types of language that can be attached to a system, S. The first is a propositional language, PL(S); the second is a higher-order, typed language L(S). Both languages provide deductive systems with an intuitionistic logic. The reason for introducing PL(S) is that, as shown in paper II of the series, it is the easiest way of understanding, and expanding on, the earlier work on topos theory and quantum physics. However, the main thrust of our programme utilises the more powerful language L(S) and its representation in an appropriate topos.Comment: 36 pages, no figure

Passage of Time in a Planck Scale Rooted Local Inertial Structure

It is argued that the `problem of time' in quantum gravity necessitates a refinement of the local inertial structure of the world, demanding a replacement of the usual Minkowski line element by a 4+2n dimensional pseudo-Euclidean line element, with the extra 2n being the number of internal phase space dimensions of the observed system. In the refined structure, the inverse of the Planck time takes over the role of observer-independent conversion factor usually played by the speed of light, which now emerges as an invariant but derivative quantity. In the relativistic theory based on the refined structure, energies and momenta turn out to be invariantly bounded from above, and lengths and durations similarly bounded from below, by their respective Planck scale values. Along the external timelike world-lines, the theory naturally captures the `flow of time' as a genuinely structural attribute of the world. The theory also predicts expected deviations--suppressed quadratically by the Planck energy--from the dispersion relations for free fields in the vacuum. The deviations from the special relativistic Doppler shifts predicted by the theory are also suppressed quadratically by the Planck energy. Nonetheless, in order to estimate the precision required to distinguish the theory from special relativity, an experiment with a binary pulsar emitting TeV range gamma-rays is considered in the context of the predicted deviations from the second-order shifts.Comment: 17 pages; Diagram depicting "the objective flow of time" is replaced with a much-improved diagra

Nonlocality, Bell's Ansatz and Probability

Quantum Mechanics lacks an intuitive interpretation, which is the cause of a generally formalistic approach to its use. This in turn has led to a certain insensitivity to the actual meaning of many words used in its description and interpretation. Herein, we analyze carefully the possible mathematical meanings of those terms used in analysis of EPR's contention, that Quantum Mechanics is incomplete, as well as Bell's work descendant therefrom. As a result, many inconsistencies and errors in contemporary discussions of nonlocality, as well as in Bell's Ansatz with respect to the laws of probability, are identified. Evading these errors precludes serious conflicts between Quantum Mechanics and both Special Relativity and Philosophy.Comment: 8&1/2 pages revtex; v2: many corrections, clairifications & extentions, all small; v3: editorial scru

Accurate masses and radii of normal stars: modern results and applications

This paper presents and discusses a critical compilation of accurate, fundamental determinations of stellar masses and radii. We have identified 95 detached binary systems containing 190 stars (94 eclipsing systems, and alpha Centauri) that satisfy our criterion that the mass and radius of both stars be known to 3% or better. To these we add interstellar reddening, effective temperature, metal abundance, rotational velocity and apsidal motion determinations when available, and we compute a number of other physical parameters, notably luminosity and distance. We discuss the use of this information for testing models of stellar evolution. The amount and quality of the data also allow us to analyse the tidal evolution of the systems in considerable depth, testing prescriptions of rotational synchronisation and orbital circularisation in greater detail than possible before. The new data also enable us to derive empirical calibrations of M and R for single (post-) main-sequence stars above 0.6 M(Sun). Simple, polynomial functions of T(eff), log g and [Fe/H] yield M and R with errors of 6% and 3%, respectively. Excellent agreement is found with independent determinations for host stars of transiting extrasolar planets, and good agreement with determinations of M and R from stellar models as constrained by trigonometric parallaxes and spectroscopic values of T(eff) and [Fe/H]. Finally, we list a set of 23 interferometric binaries with masses known to better than 3%, but without fundamental radius determinations (except alpha Aur). We discuss the prospects for improving these and other stellar parameters in the near future.Comment: 56 pages including figures and tables. To appear in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. Ascii versions of the tables will appear in the online version of the articl

Evaluating GAIA performances on eclipsing binaries. I. Orbits and stellar parameters for V505 Per, V570 Per and OO Peg

The orbits and physical parameters of three detached, double-lined A-F eclipsing binaries have been derived combining H_P, V_T, B_T photometry from the Hipparcos/Tycho mission with 8500-8750 Ang ground-based spectroscopy, mimicking the photometric+spectroscopic observations that should be obtained by GAIA, the approved Cornerstone 6 mission by ESA. This study has two main objectives, namely (a) to derive reasonable orbits for a number of new eclipsing binaries and (b) to evaluate the expected performances by GAIA on eclipsing binaries and the accuracy achievable on the determination of fundamental stellar parameters like masses and radii. It is shown that a 1% precision in the basic stellar parameters can be achieved by GAIA on well observed detached eclipsing binaries provided that the spectroscopic observations are performed at high enough resolution. Other types of eclipsing binaries (including semi-detached and contact types) and different spectral types will be investigated in following papers along this series.Comment: A&A, 11 pages, 5 figures, 5 table

Speakable in Quantum Mechanics

At the 1927 Como conference Bohr spoke the now famous words "It is wrong to think that the task of physics is to find out how nature is. Physics concerns what we can say about nature." However, if the Copenhagen interpretation really holds on to this motto, why then is there this feeling of conflict when comparing it with realist interpretations? Surely what one can say about nature should in a certain sense be interpretation independent. In this paper I take Bohr's motto seriously and develop a quantum logic that avoids assuming any form of realism as much as possible. To illustrate the non-triviality of this motto a similar result is first derived for classical mechanics. It turns out that the logic for classical mechanics is a special case of the derived quantum logic. Finally, some hints are provided in how these logics are to be used in practical situations and I discuss how some realist interpretations relate to these logics

Drivers and outcomes of work alienation: reviving a concept

This article sheds new light on an understudied construct in mainstream management theory, namely, work alienation. This is an important area of study because previous research indicates that work alienation is associated with important individual and organizational outcomes. We tested four antecedents of work alienation: decision-making autonomy, task variety, task identity, and social support. Moreover, we examined two outcomes of alienation: deviance and performance, the former measured 1 year after the independent variables were measured, and the latter as rated by supervisors. We present evidence from a sample of 283 employees employed at a construction and consultancy organization in the United Kingdom. The results supported the majority of our hypotheses, indicating that alienation is a worthy concept of exploration in the management sciences

Ambient interaction and situational influence: case studies in public sites.

An audience's direct physical intervention is widely believed to be instrumental in the field of interactive art. However, this long established expectation faces new challenges through the increasing accessibility of a growing diversity of interactive technologies and ubiquitous smart media. Such innovations are often fully integrated components of interactive public artworks, many of which do not directly involve audiences or individuals as key agents in the functional or aesthetic realisation of the work. Based on three case studies of interactive artworks in public places, this article identifies an important characteristic of interactivity in interactive art, through the largely unexplored concept of 'Ambient Interaction' in which artworks are embodied and enacted through environmental conditions and situational influences rather than exclusively through people's intentional and direct physical engagement