Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

Scenario development for integrated analysis focuses on adopting an interdisciplinary approach covering key elements of the biophysical environment as well as changes in livelihoods, education, economics and governance both locally and internationally. Most importantly, the development of these scenarios generates a dialogue across institutions, stakeholders and sectors, with the use of common data and agreement on shared qualitative and quantitative futures. The scenarios adopted combine three alternative future climates and three socio-economic development pathways. Quantification of these issues included estimation based on published data, expert knowledge and stakeholder engagement, particularly where data are most uncertain or unknown. This chapter demonstrates this approach for coastal Bangladesh

New Therapeutic Strategies for Systemic Sclerosis—a Critical Analysis of the Literature

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a multi-system disease characterized by skin fibrosis and visceral disease. Therapy is organ and pathogenesis targeted. In this review, we describe novel strategies in the treatment of SSc. Utilizing the MEDLINE and the COCHRANE REGISTRY, we identified open trials, controlled trials, for treatment of SSc from 1999 to April 2005. We used the terms scleroderma, systemic sclerosis, Raynaud's phenomenon, pulmonary hypertension, methotrexate, cyclosporin, tacrolimus, relaxin, low-dose penicillamine, IVIg, calcium channel blockers, losartan, prazocin, iloprost, N-acetylcysteine, bosentan, cyclophosphamide, lung transplantation, ACE inhibitors, anti-thymocyte globulin, and stem cell transplantation. Anecdotal reports were omitted

Climate change and water resources in arid regions : uncertainty of the baseline time period

Recent climate change studies have given a lot of attention to the uncertainty that stems from general circulation models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios, hydrological models and downscaling approaches. Yet, the uncertainty that stems from the selection of the baseline period has not been studied. Accordingly, the main research question is as follows: What would be the differences and/or the similarities in the evaluation of climate change impacts between the GCM and the delta perturbation scenarios using different baseline periods? This article addresses this issue through comparison of the results of two different baseline periods, investigating the uncertainties in evaluating climate change impact on the hydrological characteristics of arid regions. The Lower Zab River Basin (Northern Iraq) has been selected as a representative case study. The research outcomes show that the considered baseline periods suggest increases and decreases in the temperature and precipitation (P), respectively, over the 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods. The two climatic scenarios are likely to lead to similar reductions in the reservoir mean monthly flows, and subsequently, their maximum discharge is approximately identical. The predicted reduction in the inflow for the 2080–2099 time period fluctuates between 31 and 49% based on SRA1B and SRA2 scenarios, respectively. The delta perturbation scenario permits the sensitivity of the climatic models to be clearly determined compared to the GCM. The former allows for a wide variety of likely climate change scenarios at the regional level and are easier to generate and apply so that they could complement the latter

Informing the design of a national screening and treatment programme for chronic viral hepatitis in primary care: qualitative study of at-risk immigrant communities and healthcare professionals

n Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise statedThis paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under the Programme Grants for Applied Research programme (RP-PG-1209-10038).

Safety and efficacy of abatacept in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (ASSET): open-label extension of a phase 2, double-blind randomised trial

Background: Abatacept was well tolerated by patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in a phase 2, double-blind randomised trial, with potential efficacy at 12 months. We report here the results of an open-label extension for 6 months. / Methods: Patients (aged ≥18 years) with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis of less than 3 years' duration from their first non-Raynaud's symptom were enrolled into the ASSET trial (A Study of Subcutaneous Abatacept to Treat Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis), which is a double-blind trial at 22 sites in Canada, the UK, and the USA. After completion of 12 months of treatment with either abatacept or placebo, patients received a further 6 months of abatacept (125 mg subcutaneous every week) in an open-label extension. The primary endpoint of the double-blind trial was modified Rodnan Skin Score (mRSS) at 12 months, which was reassessed at 18 months in the open-label extension. The primary analysis included all participants who completed the double-blind trial and received at least one dose of open-label treatment (modified intention to treat). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02161406. / Findings: Between Sept 22, 2014, and March 15, 2017, 88 participants were randomly allocated in the double-blind trial either abatacept (n=44) or placebo (44); 32 patients from each treatment group completed the 6-month open-label extension. Among patients assigned abatacept, a mean improvement from baseline in mRSS was noted at 12 months (−6·6 [SD 6·4]), with further improvement seen during the open-label extension period (−9·8 [8·1] at month 18). Participants assigned placebo had a mean improvement from baseline in mRSS at 12 months (−3·7 [SD 7·6]), with a further improvement at month 18 (−6·3 [9·3]). Infections during the open-label extension phase occurred in nine patients in the placebo–abatacept group (12 adverse events, one serious adverse event) and in 11 patients in the abatacept–abatacept group (14 adverse events, one serious adverse event). Two deaths occurred during the 12-month double-blind period in the abatacept group, which were related to scleroderma renal crisis; no deaths were recorded during the open-label extension. / Interpretation: During the 6-month open-label extension, no new safety signals for abatacept were identified in the treatment of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis. Clinically meaningful improvements in mRSS and other outcome measures were observed in both the abatacept and placebo groups when patients transitioned to open-label treatment. These data support further studies of abatacept in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis. / Funding: Bristol-Myers Squibb and National Institutes of Health

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models

Treatments for people who use anabolic androgenic steroids: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence suggests that anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS) are used globally by a diverse population with varying motivations. Evidence has increased greatly in recent years to support understanding of this form of substance use and the associated health harms, but there remains little evidence regarding interventions to support cessation and treat the consequences of use. In this scoping review, we identify and describe what is known about interventions that aim to support and achieve cessation of AAS, and treat and prevent associated health problems. METHODS: A comprehensive search strategy was developed in four bibliographic databases, supported by an iterative citation searching process to identify eligible studies. Studies of any psychological or medical treatment interventions delivered in response to non-prescribed use of AAS or an associated harm in any setting were eligible. RESULTS: In total, 109 eligible studies were identified, which included case reports representing a diverse range of disciplines and sources. Studies predominantly focussed on treatments for harms associated with AAS use, with scant evidence on interventions to support cessation of AAS use or responding to dependence. The types of conditions requiring treatment included psychiatric, neuroendocrine, hepatic, kidney, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal and infectious. There was limited evidence of engagement with users or delivery of psychosocial interventions as part of treatment for any condition, and of harm reduction interventions initiated alongside, or following, treatment. Findings were limited throughout by the case report study designs and limited information was provided. CONCLUSION: This scoping review indicates that while a range of case reports describe treatments provided to AAS users, there is scarce evidence on treating dependence, managing withdrawal, or initiating behaviour change in users in any settings. Evidence is urgently required to support the development of effective services for users and of evidence-based guidance and interventions to respond to users in a range of healthcare settings. More consistent reporting in articles of whether engagement or assessment relating to AAS was initiated, and publication within broader health- or drug-related journals, will support development of the evidence base

Limits on WWZ and WW\gamma couplings from p\bar{p}\to e\nu jj X events at \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

We present limits on anomalous WWZ and WW-gamma couplings from a search for WW and WZ production in p-bar p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV. We use p-bar p -> e-nu jjX events recorded with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during the 1992-1995 run. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 96.0+-5.1 pb^(-1). Assuming identical WWZ and WW-gamma coupling parameters, the 95% CL limits on the CP-conserving couplings are -0.33<lambda<0.36 (Delta-kappa=0) and -0.43<Delta-kappa<0.59 (lambda=0), for a form factor scale Lambda = 2.0 TeV. Limits based on other assumptions are also presented.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 table