Ascertainment bias causes false signal of anticipation in genetic prion disease.

Anticipation is the phenomenon whereby age of onset in genetic disease decreases in successive generations. Three independent reports have claimed anticipation in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) caused by the c.598G > A mutation in PRNP encoding a p.Glu200Lys (E200K) substitution in the prion protein. If confirmed, this finding would carry clear implications for genetic counseling. We analyzed pedigrees with this mutation from four prion centers worldwide (n = 217 individuals with the mutation) to analyze age of onset and death in affected and censored individuals. We show through simulation that selective ascertainment of individuals whose onset falls within the historical window since the mutation's 1989 discovery is sufficient to create robust false signals both of anticipation and of heritability of age of onset. In our data set, the number of years of anticipation observed depends upon how strictly the data are limited by the ascertainment window. Among individuals whose disease was directly observed at a study center, a 28-year difference between parent and child age of onset is observed (p = 0.002), but including individuals ascertained retrospectively through family history reduces this figure to 7 years (p = 0.005). Applying survival analysis to the most thoroughly ascertained subset of data eliminates the signal of anticipation. Moreover, even non-CJD deaths exhibit 16 years anticipation (p = 0.002), indicating that ascertainment bias can entirely explain observed anticipation. We suggest that reports of anticipation in genetic prion disease are driven entirely by ascertainment bias. Guidelines for future studies claiming statistical evidence for anticipation are suggested

Ascertainment bias causes false signal of anticipation in genetic prion disease.

Anticipation is the phenomenon whereby age of onset in genetic disease decreases in successive generations. Three independent reports have claimed anticipation in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) caused by the c.598G > A mutation in PRNP encoding a p.Glu200Lys (E200K) substitution in the prion protein. If confirmed, this finding would carry clear implications for genetic counseling. We analyzed pedigrees with this mutation from four prion centers worldwide (n = 217 individuals with the mutation) to analyze age of onset and death in affected and censored individuals. We show through simulation that selective ascertainment of individuals whose onset falls within the historical window since the mutation's 1989 discovery is sufficient to create robust false signals both of anticipation and of heritability of age of onset. In our data set, the number of years of anticipation observed depends upon how strictly the data are limited by the ascertainment window. Among individuals whose disease was directly observed at a study center, a 28-year difference between parent and child age of onset is observed (p = 0.002), but including individuals ascertained retrospectively through family history reduces this figure to 7 years (p = 0.005). Applying survival analysis to the most thoroughly ascertained subset of data eliminates the signal of anticipation. Moreover, even non-CJD deaths exhibit 16 years anticipation (p = 0.002), indicating that ascertainment bias can entirely explain observed anticipation. We suggest that reports of anticipation in genetic prion disease are driven entirely by ascertainment bias. Guidelines for future studies claiming statistical evidence for anticipation are suggested

R47H TREM2 variant increases risk of typical early-onset Alzheimer's disease but not of prion or frontotemporal dementia.

BACKGROUND: Rare TREM2 variants are significant risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: We used next generation sequencing of the whole gene (n = 700), exon 2 Sanger sequencing (n = 2634), p.R47H genotyping (n = 3518), and genome wide association study imputation (n = 13,048) to determine whether TREM2 variants are risk factors or phenotypic modifiers in patients with AD (n = 1002), frontotemporal dementia (n = 358), sporadic (n = 2500), and variant (n = 115) Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). RESULTS: We confirm only p.R47H as a risk factor for AD (odds ratio or OR = 2.19; 95% confidence interval or CI = 1.04-4.51; P = .03). p.R47H does not significantly alter risk for frontotemporal dementia (OR = 0.81), variant or sporadic CJD (OR = 1.06 95%CI = 0.66-1.69) in our cohorts. Individuals with p.R47H associated AD (n = 12) had significantly earlier symptom onset than individuals with no TREM2 variants (n = 551) (55.2 years vs. 61.7 years, P = .02). We note that heterozygous p.R47H AD is memory led and otherwise indistinguishable from "typical" sporadic AD. CONCLUSION: We find p.R47H is a risk factor for AD, but not frontotemporal dementia or prion disease

Quantifying prion disease penetrance using large population control cohorts

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