According to new research, once governments try to impose cuts above 2 per cent of GDP, a major surge in social instability can be expected.

Do government cut-backs lead to greater levels of social unrest? Hans-Joachim Voth and Jacopo Ponticelli have analysed 90 years worth of data for 26 European countries and found an unambiguous message- the more governments cut, the greater the levels of social unrest.

Productivity Differences and Factors' Allocation: Empirical Evidence from Macro and Micro Data

Questa tesi presenta nuova evidenza empirica sulla relazione tra allocazione dei fattori di produzione e differenze di produttivita' tra paesi (primo capitolo) e tra imprese (secondo capitolo). Il primo capitolo analizza la questione degli scarsi movimenti di capitale tra paesi ricchi e paesi poveri (Lucas' paradox). Una calibrazione del modello neoclassico applicata a nuovi dati mostra come, una volta tenuto conto delle differenze nello stock di capitale umano e nella remunerazione del fattore capitale, i rendimenti da capitale fisico sono molti simili tra paesi ricchi e paesi poveri. Il secondo capitolo studia la relazione tra l'allocazione dei fattori fra imprese e la produttivita' totale dei fattori (TFP). Applicando il modello di Hsieh e Klenow (2009) a dati di imprese manifatturiere di Cile e Messico negli anni '80, si nota una minore presenza di distorsioni nell'allocazione dei fattori in Cile. Questa piu' efficiente allocazione dei fattori di produzione tra imprese potrebbe aiutare a capire perche' l'economia cilena, diversamente da quella messicana, recupero' velocemente dopo la crisi dei primi anni '80.This Thesis provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the allocation of factors of production and differences in productivity across countries (first chapter) and across firms (second chapter). In the first chapter I address the issue of small capital flows between rich and poor countries (the so-called Lucas' paradox) observed in data. Applying a calibration approach to new data I show that, taking into account differences in human capital and in the capital share on output, returns to physical capital in rich and poor countries are fairly close. In the second chapter I investigate the relationship between the allocation of factors across firms within a country and TFP. Applying the model proposed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) to firm level data of Chile and Mexico during 1980s I find that there are less distortions operating on average in the Chilean manufacturing sector with respect to the Mexican one. I argue that the more efficient allocation of factors across firms could help explain why Chile recovered rapidly while Mexico stagnated after the crisis of the early 1980s

How climate change reallocates labour and capital within countries

The negative impact of climate change on local economic activity has been well studied. However, so far, we have lacked a clear understanding of how it affects the allocation of labour and capital. Christoph Albert, Paula Bustos, and Jacopo Ponticelli use new data on extreme weather events that occurred in Brazil during the last two decades and write that prolonged droughts cause the reallocation of capital and labour away from affected regions, effectively changing the structure of the economy in both directly affected areas and those integrated via labour and capital markets

According to new research, once governments try to impose cuts above 2 per cent of GDP, a major surge in social instability can be expected

Do government cut-backs lead to greater levels of social unrest? Hans-Joachim Voth and Jacopo Ponticelli have analysed 90 years worth of data for 26 European countries and found an unambiguous message- the more governments cut, the greater the levels of social unrest

Essays on finance and development

This thesis investigates various aspects of economic development. In the first chapter I study the effect of financial reform on firms. In particular, I study to what extent this effect depends on enforcement's quality. I find that -- when court enforcement works poorly -- financial reform increasing creditor protection is ineffective in fostering firm access to credit and productivity. In the second chapter I exploit the adoption of genetically engineered soybean seeds in Brazil to study the effects of agricultural productivity on industrial development. I find that areas more affected by technical change in soy production experienced faster manufacturing growth due to increased supply of cheap labour and larger credit availability. In the third chapter I study the relationship between fiscal consolidation and social unrest in Europe using cross-country data between 1919 and 2008. Results show that expenditure cuts are particularly potent in fuelling protests; tax rises have insignificant effects.Aquesta tesi investiga varis aspectes del desenvolupament econòmic. En el primer capítol estudio l’efecte de la reforma financera a les empreses. En particular, estudio fins a quin punt aquest efecte depèn de la qualitat de l’execució de la llei. He trobat que – quan l’execució jurisdiccional no funciona – la reforma finançaria que augmenta la protecció del creditor és poc efectiva a l’hora de fomentar l’accés al crèdit i la productivitat de les empreses. En el segon capítol utilitzo l’adopció al Brasil de llavors de soja genèticament modificades per estudiar els efectes de la productivitat agricultora en el desenvolupament industrial. Trobo que les zones més afectades pel canvi tecnològic derivat de la producció de soja han experimentat un creixement productiu més ràpid a causa del augment de ma d’obra barata i més disponibilitat de crèdit. Al tercer capítol, estudio la relació entre la consolidació fiscal i el malestar social a Europa utilitzant dades a de varis països entre els anys 1919 i el 2008. Els resultats demostren que les retallades son potents detonants de protestes; les pujades d’impostos, per altre banda, tenen un efecte insignificant

Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919-2008

Does fiscal consolidation lead to social unrest? Using cross-country evidence for the period 1919 to 2008, we examine the extent to which societies become unstable after budget cuts. The results show a clear correlation between fiscal retrenchment and instability. Expenditure cuts are particularly potent in fueling protests; tax rises have only small and insignificant effects. We test if the relationship simply reflects economic downturns, using a recently-developed IMF dataset on exogenous expenditure shocks, and conclude that this is not the case. While autocracies and democracies show broadly similar responses to budget cuts, countries with more constraints on the executive are less likely to see unrest after austerity measures. Growing media penetration does not strengthen the effect of cut-backs on the level of unrest. We also find that austerity episodes that result in unrest lead to quick reversals of fiscal policy

Austerity and anarchy: budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919-2008

Does fiscal consolidation lead to social unrest? Using cross-country evidence for the period 1919 to 2008, we examine the extent to which societies become unstable after budget cuts. We find a positive correlation between fiscal retrenchment and instability. Expenditure cuts are particularly potent in fueling protests; tax rises have only small effects. To isolate the effect of policy decisions on social unrest we exploit variation in neighboring countries’ past fiscal policies