Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar- Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a ‘‘pre-marked’’ sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios

Abundance and survival rates of the Hawai’i Island associated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) stock

Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai’i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture–recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai’i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture–recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE±0.05. Open and closed capture–recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221±4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631±60.1 SE, (95% CI 524–761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai’i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this Hawai’i Island stock is likely more vulnerable to negative impacts from human disturbance than previously believed

Evaluating monitoring methods for cetaceans

With increasing human pressures on wildlife comes a responsibility to monitor them effectively, particularly in an environment of declining research funds. Scarce funding resources compromise the level and efficacy of monitoring possible to detect trends in abundance, highlighting the priority for developing cost-effective programs. A systematic and rigorous sampling regime was developed to estimate abundance of a small, genetically isolated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) population exposed to high levels of human activities. Five monitoring scenarios to detect trends in abundance were evaluated by varying sampling effort, precision, power, and sampling interval. Scenario 1 consisted of monthly surveys, each of 12 days, used to obtain the initial two consecutive annual abundance estimates. Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 consisted of a reduced effort, while Scenario 5 doubled the effort of Scenario 1. Scenarios with the greatest effort (1 and 5) produced the most precise abundance estimates (CV = 0.09). Using a CV = 0.09 and power of 80%, it would take 9 years to detect a 5% annual change in abundance compared with 12 years at a power of 95%. Under this best-case monitoring scenario, if the trend was a decline, the population would have decreased by 37% and 46%, respectively, prior to detection of a significant decline: With the potential of a large decline in a small population prior to detection, the lower power level should be used to trigger a management intervention. The approach presented here is applicable across taxa for which individuals can be identified, including terrestrial and aquatic mammals, birds, and reptiles

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability.

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213–1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390–1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other

Preliminary estimates of the abundance and fidelity of dolphins associating with a demersal trawl fishery

The incidental capture of wildlife in fishing gear presents a global conservation challenge. As a baseline to inform assessments of the impact of bycatch on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) interacting with an Australian trawl fishery, we conducted an aerial survey to estimate dolphin abundance across the fishery. Concurrently, we carried out boat-based dolphin photo-identification to assess short-term fidelity to foraging around trawlers, and used photographic and genetic data to infer longer-term fidelity to the fishery. We estimated abundance at ≈ 2,300 dolphins (95% CI = 1,247-4,214) over the ≈ 25,880-km2 fishery. Mark-recapture estimates yielded 226 (SE = 38.5) dolphins associating with one trawler and some individuals photographed up to seven times over 12 capture periods. Moreover, photographic and genetic re-sampling over three years confirmed that some individuals show long-term fidelity to trawler-associated foraging. Our study presents the first abundance estimate for any Australian pelagic dolphin community and documents individuals associating with trawlers over days, months and years. Without trend data or correction factors for dolphin availability, the impact of bycatch on this dolphin population's conservation status remains unknown. These results should be taken into account by management agencies assessing the impact of fisheries-related mortality on this protected species

Effects of a Water Aerobics Program on the Blood Pressure, Percentage of Body Fat, Weight, and Resting Pulse Rate of Senior Citizens

Ten men and 18 women aged 57 to 76 participated in a 16-week water exercise class at Rose State College, Oklahoma City. The class met for one hour twice a week for the 16 weeks and was composed of flexibility exercises, aerobic exercises, and cool-down exercises. Pre- and postclass measurements were taken for blood pressure, weight, percentage of body fat, and resting pulse rate and were compared using a paired t-test. Reductions significant at the .05 level were recorded for diastolic blood pressure, weight, and percentage of body fat. There were no significant reductions in systolic blood pressure and resting pulse rate. I concluded that water aerobics is an ideal modality for senior citizens'aerobic exercise because of the favorable changes it produces in the health parameters investigated and because it places little stress on the weight-bearing joints during exercise.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Species-specific responses of planktivorous fish to the introduction of a new piscivore: implications for prey fitness

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75539/1/j.1365-2427.2007.01810.x.pd

Search for single vector-like B quark production and decay via B → bH(b¯b) in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for single production of a vector-like B quark decaying into a Standard Model b-quark and a Standard Model Higgs boson, which decays into a b¯b pair. The search is carried out in 139 fb−1 of √s = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC between 2015 and 2018. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and mass-dependent exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the resonance production cross-section in several theoretical scenarios determined by the couplings cW, cZ and cH between the B quark and the Standard Model W, Z and Higgs bosons, respectively. For a vector-like B occurring as an isospin singlet, the search excludes values of cW greater than 0.45 for a B resonance mass (mB) between 1.0 and 1.2 TeV. For 1.2 TeV < mB < 2.0 TeV, cW values larger than 0.50–0.65 are excluded. If the B occurs as part of a (B, Y) doublet, the smallest excluded cZ coupling values range between 0.3 and 0.5 across the investigated resonance mass range 1.0 TeV < mB < 2.0 TeV