Prevalence of cervical disease at age 20 after immunisation with bivalent HPV vaccine at age 12-13 in Scotland: retrospective population study

The manuscript was reviewed by Jo’s Trust, which supports the conclusions. It made the following statement: We think (it has) massive implications for the screening programme, vaccine and also impact on diagnoses in the future. It gives weight for activity to increase vaccine uptake, has implications on screening intervals. The clinically relevant herd protection is very interesting too. It also feeds into our policy calls for a new IT infrastructure (for the screening programme in England) to record and enable invitations based on whether someone has at the vaccine if intervals can be extended. Funding: This study has been undertaken as part of the programme of surveillance of immunisation against human papillomavirus in Scotland, included within the routine work of Health Protection Scotland, a part of the Scottish National Health Service. No funding has been received from industry.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Waning immunity is associated with periodic large outbreaks of mumps: a mathematical modeling study of Scottish data

Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005 and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles- Mumps- Rubella) vaccine more than twenty years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modelling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004-2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004-2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake

A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland

In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014

Improving process algebra model structure and parameters in infectious disease epidemiology through data mining

Computational models are increasingly used to assist decision-making in public health epidemiology, but achieving the best model is a complex task due to the interaction of many components and variability of parameter values causing radically different dynamics. The modelling process can be enhanced through the use of data mining techniques. Here, we demonstrate this by applying association rules and clustering techniques to two stages of mod- elling: identifying pertinent structures in the initial model creation stage, and choosing optimal parameters to match that model to observed data. This is illustrated through application to the study of the circulating mumps virus in Scotland, 2004-2015

Development of an in-house ELISA to detect anti-HPV16-L1 antibodies in serum and dried blood spots

Measuring anti-HPV antibody levels is important for surveillance of the immunological response to both natural infection and vaccination. Here, an ELISA test for measurement of HPV-16L1 antibodies was developed and validated in sera and dried blood spots. An in-house ELISA was developed for measuring anti-HPV-16L1 IgA and IgG levels. The assay was standardized against WHO international standard serum and validated on serum, dried blood spots and cervical liquid based cytology samples from women attending colposcopy clinics in Scotland. Antibody avidity index was also measured in serum samples. The average HPV 16-L1 specific IgG and IgA levels measured in sera, in women attending a routine colposcopy service were 7.3 units/ml and 8.1 units/ml respectively. Significant correlations between serum and dried blood spot eluates for both IgG and IgA were observed indicating that the latter serve as a credible proxy for antibody levels. Average IgG Avidity Index was 35% (95% CI 25%-45%) suggesting previous, historical challenge with natural infection. This ELISA has potential for use in epidemiological and field studies of antibody prevalence and if coupled with avidity measurement may be of use in individual case monitoring of vaccine responses and failures

Increased risk of HPV-associated genital cancers in men and women as a consequence of pre-invasive disease

To assess the excess risk of HPV‐associated cancer (HPVaC) in two at‐risk groups – women with a previous diagnosis of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) and both men and women treated for non‐cervical pre‐invasive ano‐genital disease. All CIN3 cases diagnosed in 1989‐2015 in Scotland were extracted from the Scottish cancer registry (SMR06). All cases of pre‐invasive penile, anal, vulval, and vaginal disease diagnosed in 1990‐2015 were identified within the NHS pathology databases in the two largest NHS health boards in Scotland. Both were linked to SMR06 to extract subsequent incidence of HPVaC following the diagnosis of CIN3 or pre‐invasive disease. Standardised incidence ratios were calculated for the risk of acquiring HPVaC for the two at‐risk groups compared with the general Scottish population. Among 69714 females in Scotland diagnosed with CIN3 (890360.9 person‐years), 179 developed non‐cervical HPVaC. CIN3 cases were at 3.2‐fold (95% CI: 2.7 to 3.7) increased risk of developing non‐cervical HPVaC, compared to the general female population. Among 1235 patients diagnosed with non‐cervical pre‐invasive disease (9667.4 person‐years), 47 developed HPVaC. Individuals with non‐cervical pre‐invasive disease had a substantially increased risk of developing HPVaC ‐ 15.5‐fold (95% CI: 11.1 to 21.1) increased risk for females and 28‐fold (11.3 to 57.7) increased risk for males. We report a significant additional risk of HPV‐associated cancer in those have been diagnosed with pre‐invasive HPV‐associated lesions including but not confined to the cervix. Uncovering the natural history of pre‐invasive disease has potential for determining screening, prevention and treatment

Changes in HPV prevalence following a national bivalent HPV vaccination programme in Scotland: a 7-year cross-sectional study

Background: On Sept 1, 2008, Scotland launched routine vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18, targeted at 12–13-year-old girls, of whom 92·4% were fully vaccinated in 2008–09. In this study, we report on vaccine effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in these vaccinated women who attended for routine cervical screening at age 20–21 years. Methods: In this 7-year cross-sectional study (covering birth cohorts 1988–1995), we sampled approximately 1000 samples per year from those attending cervical screening at age 20–21 years and tested each for HPV. By linkage to vaccination records we ascertained prevalence by birth cohort and vaccination status. Estimates of vaccine effectiveness for HPV types 16 and 18, HPV types 31, 33, and 45, other high-risk types, and any HPV were calculated using logistic regression. Findings: In total, 8584 samples were HPV genotyped. Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 reduced substantially from 30·0% (95% CI 26·9–33·1) in the 1988 cohort to 4·5% (3·5–5·7) in the 1995 cohort, giving a vaccine effectiveness of 89·1% (85·1–92·3) for those vaccinated at age 12–13 years. All cross-protective types showed significant vaccine effectiveness (HPV type 31, 93·8% [95% CI 83·8–98·5]; HPV type 33, 79·1% [64·2–89·0]; HPV type 45, 82·6% [61·5–93·9]). Unvaccinated individuals born in 1995 had a reduced odds of HPV types 16 and 18 infection compared with those born in 1988 (adjusted odds ratio 0·13 [95% CI 0·06–0·28]) and reduced odds of HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (odds ratio 0·45 [0·23–0·89]). Interpretation: Bivalent vaccination has led to a startling reduction in vaccine and cross-protective HPV types 7 years after vaccination. There is also evidence of herd protection against the vaccine-specific and cross-protective types in unvaccinated individuals born in 1995. These findings should be considered in cost-effectiveness models informing vaccine choice and models to shape the future of cervical screening programmes

HPV status and favorable outcome in vulvar squamous cancer

It is universally accepted that high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) is the cause of cervical dysplasia and cancer. More recently, it has been shown that HPV is also a marker of clinical outcome in oropharyngeal cancer. However, contemporary information is lacking on both the prevalence of HPV infection in vulvar cancer (VSCC), its precursor lesion, vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) and the influence of HPV-status on the prognosis of this malignancy. We have conducted a detailed population-based study to examine rates of progression of VIN to VSCC, type-specific HPV prevalence in vulvar disease and the influence of HPV status on clinical outcome in VSCC. We observed that the age at which women are diagnosed with VSCC is falling and there is a significant time gap between first diagnosis of VIN and progression to invasive disease. HR-HPV infection was detected in 87% (97/112) cases of VIN and 52% cases (32/62) of VSCC. The presence of HR-HPV in squamous intraepithelial lesion was associated with lower rates of progression to invasive cancer (hazard ratio, 0.22, p = 0.001). In the adjusted analysis, HR-HPV was associated with improved progression-free survival of VSCC compared to those with HPV negative tumours (hazard ratio, 0.32, p = 0.02)