The role of social interactions in conservation conflict: goose management across Scotland

Increasing anthropogenic influence has left no corner of the natural world untouched. As the negative impacts of people on the natural world have become more prominent, pro-conservation actions have been incentivised across scales, from individual to societal to intergovernmental. Clashes over conservation objectives, when there is a perception that one party is asserting its interests at the expense of the other, is termed Conservation Conflict, and causes negative outcomes for biodiversity and people. Conservation conflicts are complex problems, the successful management of which can rarely be undertaken unilaterally, for both practical and ethical reasons. Finding the best ways for encouraging social interactions and cooperative behaviours are therefore vital in managing conservation conflict. I take a conservation conflict surrounding the damaging of crops by hyper-abundant flocks of wild geese across Scotland as a case study to explore the roles of social interactions in conservation conflict. In Chapter 2 I start at the network scale by modelling the interactions between individuals and organisations involved in the goose conflict at two locations. I test the networks for the prevalence of particular sets of network configurations which represent individuals forming interactions in response to either a coordination problem (where solutions are sought and implemented efficiently to tackle an agreed goal) or to a cooperation problem (where goals are not shared, and for which solutions must be sought through negotiation). I find that interaction networks in both locations were formed in response to, and have the function to tackle, coordination problems. This is useful for dealing with coordination problems such as the practical management of geese. Interaction networks formed in response to, and having the function to tackle, cooperation problems were less prevalent. This presents a problem when collective problem solving requires negotiation, such as for managing conservation conflict. Networks at both locations would benefit from forming certain types of interactions to strengthen the network for future cooperation problems. To effectively manage conservation conflicts in-depth knowledge of the cooperative behaviours of the people involved is required. In Chapter 3 I use stakeholder interviews, to investigate how and why individual members of three important stakeholder groups (farmers & crofters, conservation managers, and shooters) cooperated with one another and what barriers to cooperation they faced. I identify three dimensions of cooperation in the goose conflict: i) that the lack of horizontal interactions (between actors who interact with others at a similar organisational scale, for example farmers communicating with other farmers or conservation project managers communicating with other conservation project managers) and vertical interactions (between actors across different organisational scales, for example farmers communicating with farming union representatives, or conservation project managers communicating with senior management) linking widely distributed actors meant both shared learning and the perception of fairness suffer. Building up horizontal and vertical interactions could bypass these scientific and political barriers; ii) a false belief in uniformity among stakeholder groups can be the source of poor system understanding, which can be prevented by developing wider or alternative stakeholder representation; and iii) for long-term, complex issues, identification and discussion of trade-offs is needed to avoid poor outcomes throughout the process, not just at the planning stages. Laboratory experiments with volunteers show cooperation is less likely in the presence of uncertainty. Much less is known about how stakeholders in real-life conservation conflicts respond to different types of uncertainty. In Chapter 4, I test the effect of different sources of uncertainty on cooperative behaviour using a framed field experiment and interviews with crofters in Scotland. The experiment compared a baseline scenario of perfect certainty with scenarios including either: i) scientific uncertainty about the effectiveness of a conflict-reduction intervention; ii) administrative uncertainty about intervention funding; or iii) political uncertainty about the extent of community support. I find that crofters’ intention to cooperate is high but lessened by uncertainty, especially over the commitment from other stakeholders to cooperate on goose management. I conclude that existing cooperation on goose management may be at risk if uncertainty isn’t reduced outright or if commitments between parties are not strengthened. To avert this issue researchers and government advisers need to: i) determine how uncertainty will impact intention of stakeholders to cooperate; and ii) take steps (such as uncertainty reduction, communication, or acceptance) to reduce the negative impact of uncertainty on cooperation. In Chapter 5 I use the findings from Chapters 2 to 4 in conjunction with a conservation conflict management tool to evaluate goose conflict management in Scotland. I find many existing structures and processes of goose conflict management in Scotland were successful, but in order to build on these successes I propose several practical interventions. Increasing interactions between disparate groups; building data commons for shared learning; identification, acknowledgement, discussion and inclusion of trade-offs as they emerge; and making commitments to balance and fairness across the system. Enacting these recommendations would give goose conflict management in Scotland greater ability to deliver positive outcomes in what is a highly dynamic issue. This thesis uses mixed methods to investigate the role of social interaction in conservation conflict. The work succeeds in both identifying interventions specific for managing the goose conflict in Scotland and developing the theory of social interactions and cooperation in conservation conflict management more widely

Using think-aloud interviews to characterize model-based reasoning in electronics for a laboratory course assessment

Models of physical systems are used to explain and predict experimental results and observations. The Modeling Framework for Experimental Physics describes the process by which physicists revise their models to account for the newly acquired observations, or change their apparatus to better represent their models when they encounter discrepancies between actual and expected behavior of a system. While modeling is a nationally recognized learning outcome for undergraduate physics lab courses, no assessments of students' model-based reasoning exist for upper-division labs. As part of a larger effort to create two assessments of students' modeling abilities, we used the Modeling Framework to develop and code think-aloud problem-solving activities centered on investigating an inverting amplifier circuit. This study is the second phase of a multiphase assessment instrument development process. Here, we focus on characterizing the range of modeling pathways students employ while interpreting the output signal of a circuit functioning far outside its recommended operation range. We end by discussing four outcomes of this work: (1) Students engaged in all modeling subtasks, and they spent the most time making measurements, making comparisons, and enacting revisions; (2) Each subtask occurred in close temporal proximity to all over subtasks; (3) Sometimes, students propose causes that do not follow logically from observed discrepancies; (4) Similarly, students often rely on their experiential knowledge and enact revisions that do not follow logically from articulated proposed causes.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Perceptually smooth timbral guides by state-space analysis of phase-vocoder parameters

Sculptor is a phase-vocoder-based package of programs that allows users to explore timbral manipulation of sound in real time. It is the product of a research program seeking ultimately to perform gestural capture by analysis of the sound a performer makes using a conventional instrument. Since the phase-vocoder output is of high dimensionality — typically more than 1,000 channels per analysis frame—mapping phase-vocoder output to appropriate input parameters for a synthesizer is only feasible in theory

Characterizing lab instructors' self-reported learning goals to inform development of an experimental modeling skills assessment

The ability to develop, use, and refine models of experimental systems is a nationally recognized learning outcome for undergraduate physics lab courses. However, no assessments of students' model-based reasoning exist for upper-division labs. This study is the first step toward development of modeling assessments for optics and electronics labs. In order to identify test objectives that are likely relevant across many institutional contexts, we interviewed 35 lab instructors about the ways they incorporate modeling in their course learning goals and activities. The study design was informed by the Modeling Framework for Experimental Physics. This framework conceptualizes modeling as consisting of multiple subtasks: making measurements, constructing system models, comparing data to predictions, proposing causes for discrepancies, and enacting revisions to models or apparatus. We found that each modeling subtask was identified by multiple instructors as an important learning outcome for their course. Based on these results, we argue that test objectives should include probing students' competence with most modeling subtasks, and test items should be designed to elicit students' justifications for choosing particular modeling pathways. In addition to discussing these and other implications for assessment, we also identify future areas of research related to the role of modeling in optics and electronics labs.Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures, 5 tables; submitted to Phys. Rev. PE

Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results

The problem of modelling football data has become increasingly popular in the last few years and many different models have been proposed with the aim of estimating the characteristics that bring a team to lose or win a game, or to predict the score of a particular match. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to fulfil both these aims and test its predictive strength based on data about the Italian Serie A 1991-1992 championship. To overcome the issue of overshrinkage produced by the Bayesian hierarchical model, we specify a more complex mixture model that results in a better fit to the observed data. We test its performance using an example of the Italian Serie A 2007-2008 championship

Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008)

There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required