Socioeconomic and Demographic Trends of Northwest Indiana since 1970

Northwest Indiana is a region with a storied economic past. Once one of the dominant steel and manufacturing powerhouses of the United States, the region began a decline in the 1970s similar to that of other Rust Belt regions in the United States. Since the 1970s, the region has undergone dramatic change as it struggles to define itself for the 21st century. Despite these challenges, the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and trends, when viewed at the regional level, appear quite typical for the United States. The representative nature of Northwest Indiana at this level conceals vast differences between cities within the region, however. In this paper, I analyze the broad socioeconomic and demographic changes in Northwest Indiana at the city level since the 1970s. I find significant variation between cities within the region in terms of trends in population, income, age, education, race, ethnicity, and poverty. The former urban core of the region still faces significant challenges, while some of the surrounding cities and towns have been extremely successful and are developing more quickly than the State of Indiana and the nation overall

An Interdisciplinary Analysis of Course Meeting Frequency, Attendance and Performance

Using data from Economics and History courses, taught across multiple semesters, we show that a triweekly meeting frequency improves student performance relative to a biweekly meeting frequency. We provide evidence that this effect operates through two channels. First, there is an indirect effect that operates through attendance. While greater attendance improves course score, this effect is less in a triweekly course. Second, there is a direct positive effect to more frequent course meetings on student performance. These two effects combine to increase student performance by 3 to 9 percentage points when meeting triweekly instead of biweekly. While students perform better overall on a triweekly meeting schedule, there are more absences and less consistent attendance.

The effect of in-person primary and secondary school instruction on county-level SARS-CoV-2 spread in Indiana

Background To determine the county-level effect of in-person primary and secondary school reopening on daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Indiana. Methods This is a county-level population-based study using a panel data regression analysis of the proportion of in-person learning to evaluate an association with community-wide daily new SARS-CoV-2 cases. The study period was July 12-October 6, 2020. We included 73 out of 92 (79.3%) Indiana counties in the analysis, accounting for 85.7% of school corporations and 90.6% of student enrollement statewide. The primary exposure was the proportion of students returning to in-person instruction. The primary outcome was the daily new SARS-CoV-2 cases per 100,000 residents at the county level. Results There is a statistically significant relationship between the proportion of students attending K-12 schools in-person and the county level daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 28 days later. For all ages, the coefficient of interest (β) is estimated at 3.36 (95% CI: 1.91—4.81; p < 0.001). This coefficient represents the effect of a change the proportion of students attending in-person on new daily cases 28 days later. For example, a 10 percentage point increase in K-12 students attending school in-person is associated with a daily increase in SARS-CoV-2 cases in the county equal to 0.336 cases/100,000 residents of all ages. Conclusion In-person primary and secondary school is associated with a statistically significant but proportionally small increase in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 cases

Essays in political economy

In this dissertation I consider the application of an economic framework to situations outside of traditional economics. I look at two areas: the first is the behavior of politicians in dynamic elections and the second is addiction in online video games. I show how the power of economic incentives shapes phenomena that are outside the realm of traditional economics. Chapter 1 analyzes the incentives of politicians when their behavior in office affects the severity of issues upon which their re-election may depend. Elections are often about which candidate can best deal with the most pressing national issues. The severity of issues, however, is endogenous and depends on the actions taken by earlier politicians. If a politician has a comparative advantage in dealing with a particular issue, then this endogeneity creates an agency problem. An incumbent has an incentive to manipulate the severity of issues to create a more favorable environment for re-election. To analyze this incentive problem I develop a dynamic elections model in which candidates from differentiated parties have a comparative advantage in dealing with a specific issue. The incumbent chooses how much to invest in each issue, which endogenously determines the severity and relative importance of these issues to the voters in the future. I show that when politicians care about re-election they invest inefficiently. An incumbent invests less in the issue in which he has an advantage and more in the issue of his opponent. Because of this behavior, issues improve slower over time, are more severe in the stationary state, and parties remain in control of an office longer than is socially optimal. Chapter 2 uses a unique panel dataset to analyze rational addiction in an online video game. As playing video games becomes more common among both children and adults, the extent to which video games can and should be considered addictive has become controversial. To look at this question from an economics perspective, I develop a model of rational addiction for video games. Using a unique and very large panel dataset collected from the online video game \textit{Team Fortress 2} I show evidence of rational addiction: past and future consumption of this game play a significant role in determining how much an individual plays today. My data are rich enough that by estimating the model separately for each individual, I am able to identify and characterize potential addicts in a way that is consistent with rational addiction. The individuals identified as addicts in this way are very different than from using simple metrics, for instance by only looking at how much an individual plays, to define addiction. Estimating the model separately for each individual also provides evidence of significant heterogeneity among individuals, and suggests an individual-specific approach to analyzing addiction. Finally, I modify the model to allow for learning or endogenous skill development and provide evidence of a skill-playtime feedback loop: by playing today an individual improves his skill which reinforces his decision to play in the future and feeds back into addiction

NWI Index: August 2014 Release

In August the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.3 points from 139.0 to 139.3. This growth continues a trend of expansion and recovery that is consistent with, but lagging behind slightly, the state and national economy. Due to overall weakness in the index and leading components, the forecast for economic growth over the next six months for the region has been downgraded to weak or no growth (less than 1% growth)

NWI Index: December 2014 Quarterly Summary

The Northwest Indiana Coincident Index finished strongly in the fourth quarter, increasing by 1.0 point from its November level of 140.2. This is the second month of strong growth for the region after a stagnant third quarter. Despite these gains, the forecast for the regional economy over the next six months is for weak growth of about 1%

NWI Index: January 2015 Release

In January the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index fell 0.1 points. A decrease in employment, especially in the construction sector, due to the unusually poor weather in January was the main contributing factor

NWI Index: August 2015 Release

In August the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.3 points to 141.4, marking the fifth month in a row with positive growth. This growth was driven primarily by a turnaround in employment, which expanded by 1,600 after the last two months of sharp declines, while the remaining factors remained stable