Tackling the Monday Morning Quarterback: Applications of Hindsight Bias in Decision-Making Settings

Extant research has focused largely on what causes hindsight distortion. In contrast, this work examines applied aspects related to the bias in decision-making environments. A conceptual framework is provided and recent real–world examples are presented to outline how decision makers—and those who observe them—show hindsight effects. Then, both negative and positive consequences of the bias are outlined. Strategies are presented to reduce negative effects that occur when decision makers show hindsight distortion. Finally, because it is often not possible to avoid or to correct others\u27 hindsight–tainted evaluations, suggestions for coping with the bias are discussed

Association between adenoma location and risk of recurrence

The biological environment varies across the colorectum and may therefore differently affect neoplastic growth in the proximal and distal colon. The aim of the study was to evaluate the risk for recurrent adenomas and their anatomic location based on adenoma location at baseline colonoscopy

ANALISIS BANJIR RANCANGAN DENGAN METODE HSS NAKAYASU PADA BENDUNGAN GINTUNG

Jebolnya Situ Gintung merupakan akibat dari perubahan debit banjir yang terus bertambah. Hal tersebut perlu diana/isis terhadap debit banjir rancangan yang selanjutnya dapat digunakan untuk merencanakan Bendungan Gintung yang baru. Berdasarkan permasalahan di atas, maka perlu dikembangkan perhitungan banjir rancangan dengan metode HSS Nakayasu. Perhitungan dengan menggunaan data hujan. Pada penelitian ini digunakan 18 Pos stasiun penangkar hujan yang diseleksi menurut kelayakan data menjadi 9 pos stasiun hujan dengan memasukan nilai hujan harian maksimum tahunan. Data curah hujan yang disaring memilki tingkat kepercayaan yang rendah, namun masih masuk ke dalam data aman. Dalam penentuan debit banjir rencana terlebih dahulu dilakukan ana/isa frekuensi dan penetapan sebaran data curah hujan kemudian diuji dengan chi-kuadrat. Distribusi yang sesuai adalah distribusi Log Pearson Type III. Dari hasil ana/isa debit banjir rancangan, untuk merencanakan bendungan digunakan debit banjir kala ulang Ql000 = 289,348 m3/dt

Thermal Conductivity across the Phase Diagram of Cuprates: Low-Energy Quasiparticles and Doping Dependence of the Superconducting Gap

Heat transport in the cuprate superconductors YBa$_2$Cu$_3$O$_{y}$ and La$_{2-x}$Sr$_x$CuO$_4$ was measured at low temperatures as a function of doping. A residual linear term kappa_{0}/T is observed throughout the superconducting region and it decreases steadily as the Mott insulator is approached from the overdoped regime. The low-energy quasiparticle gap extracted from kappa_{0}/T is seen to scale closely with the pseudogap. The ubiquitous presence of nodes and the tracking of the pseudogap shows that the overall gap remains of the pure d-wave form throughout the phase diagram, which excludes the possibility of a complex component (ix) appearing at a putative quantum phase transition and argues against a non-superconducting origin to the pseudogap. A comparison with superfluid density measurements reveals that the quasiparticle effective charge is weakly dependent on doping and close to unity.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure

The Grizzly, May 5, 1992

Smells Like Summer • Psychology Conference a Success • Whitians Recognize Honor Students • Theatre Workshop Presentations • Lily Redner Speaks: Lessons of The Holocaust • Record Review: Tori Amos • Movie Review: Death Stalker II • Senior Reflection Special: A Look Back on the Last Four Years; Most Memorable Moments at Ursinus • The Knowledge of Experience • Valete Ursini • Medinger Pottery Exhibit Opens • On Government and the People • America the Innocent • Letter: Wismer Abuses • Ursinus Joins All-Sports Conference • Breakdown on NBA \u2792 • Women\u27s LAX Snag MAC Title, End Seasonhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1297/thumbnail.jp

Factors underlying age-related changes in discrete aiming

Age has a clear impact on one’s ability to make accurate goal-directed aiming movements. Older adults seem to plan slower and shorter-ranged initial pulses towards the target, and rely more on sensory feedback to ensure endpoint accuracy. Despite the fact that these age-related changes in manual aiming have been observed consistently, the underlying mechanism remains speculative. In an attempt to isolate four commonly suggested underlying factors, young and older adults were instructed to make discrete aiming movements under varying speed and accuracy constraints. Results showed that older adults were physically able to produce fast primary submovements and that they demonstrated similar movement-programming capacities as young adults. On the other hand, considerable evidence was found supporting a decreased visual feedback-processing efficiency and the implementation of a play-it-safe strategy in older age. In conclusion, a combination of the latter two factors seems to underlie the age-related changes in manual aiming behaviour

Oligoclonal bands increase the specificity of MRI criteria to predict multiple sclerosis in children with radiologically isolated syndrome

Background: Steps towards the development of diagnostic criteria are needed for children with the radiologically isolated syndrome to identify children at risk of clinical demyelination. Objectives: To evaluate the 2005 and 2016 MAGNIMS magnetic resonance imaging criteria for dissemination in space for multiple sclerosis, both alone and with oligoclonal bands in cerebrospinal fluid added, as predictors of a first clinical event consistent with central nervous system demyelination in children with radiologically isolated syndrome. Methods: We analysed an international historical cohort of 61 children with radiologically isolated syndrome (18 years), defined using the 2010 magnetic resonance imaging dissemination in space criteria (Ped-RIS) who were followed longitudinally (mean 4.2 4.7 years). All index scans also met the 2017 magnetic resonance imaging dissemination in space criteria. Results: Diagnostic indices (95% confidence intervals) for the 2005 dissemination in space criteria, with and without oligoclonal bands, were: sensitivity 66.7% (38.4\u201388.2%) versus 72.7% (49.8\u201389.3%); specificity 83.3% (58.6\u201396.4%) versus 53.9% (37.2\u201369.9%). For the 2016 MAGNIMS dissemination in space criteria diagnostic indices were: sensitivity 76.5% (50.1\u201393.2%) versus 100% (84.6\u2013100%); specificity 72.7% (49.8\u201389.3%) versus 25.6% (13.0\u201342.1%). Conclusions: Oligoclonal bands increased the specificity of magnetic resonance imaging criteria in children with Ped-RIS. Clinicians should consider testing cerebrospinal fluid to improve diagnostic certainty. There is rationale to include cerebrospinal fluid analysis for biomarkers including oligoclonal bands in planned prospective studies to develop optimal diagnostic criteria for radiologically isolated syndrome in children