Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States: A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends

Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections.Influenza activity data from 2003-04 through 2007-08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance). Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003-04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90).This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003-04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness among Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Southern China

In China the protective effect of seasonal influenza vaccine has only been assessed in controlled clinical trials and proven to be highly effective. However, the post-licensure effectiveness of influenza vaccine has not been examined. In our study all influenza cases from the 19 surveillance sites in Guangzhou were laboratory confirmed during 2009 and 2010. Controls were randomly selected from children aged 6 to 59 months in the Children's Expanded Programmed Immunization Administrative Computerized System. 2529 cases and 4539 controls were finally enrolled. After adjusting for gender, age and area of residence, the vaccine effectiveness of full vaccination was 51.79% and 57.78% in the 2009 and 2010 influenza season, respectively. Partial vaccination provided 39.38% and 35.98% protection to children aged 24 to 59 months in 2009 and 2010, respectively, and no protective effect was observed among younger children. Full vaccination is highly protective and partial vaccination is protective for older children. Influenza vaccination in general should be encouraged, and full vaccination should be particularly encouraged because its protective effect is much stronger than that of partial vaccination

Fatal Cases of Influenza A in Childhood

In the northern hemisphere winter of 2003–04 antigenic variant strains (A/Fujian/411/02 –like) of influenza A H3N2 emerged. Circulation of these strains in the UK was accompanied by an unusually high number of laboratory confirmed influenza associated fatalities in children. This study was carried out to better understand risk factors associated with fatal cases of influenza in children.Case histories, autopsy reports and death registration certificates for seventeen fatal cases of laboratory confirmed influenza in children were analyzed. None had a recognized pre-existing risk factor for severe influenza and none had been vaccinated. Three cases had evidence of significant bacterial co-infection. Influenza strains recovered from fatal cases were antigenically similar to those circulating in the community. A comparison of protective antibody titres in age stratified cohort sera taken before and after winter 2003–04 showed that young children had the highest attack rate during this season (21% difference, 95% confidence interval from 0.09 to 0.33, p = 0.0009). Clinical incidences of influenza-like illness (ILI) in young age groups were shown to be highest only in the years when novel antigenic drift variants emerged.This work presents a rare insight into fatal influenza H3N2 in healthy children. It confirms that circulating seasonal influenza A H3N2 strains can cause severe disease and death in children in the apparent absence of associated bacterial infection or predisposing risk factors. This adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the burden of severe illness due to seasonal influenza A in childhood

The dynamics of nasopharyngeal streptococcus pneumoniae carriage among rural Gambian mother-infant pairs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Streptococcus pneumoniae </it>is an important cause of community acquired pneumonia, sepsis, meningitis and otitis media globally and has been incriminated as a major cause of serious childhood bacterial infections in The Gambia. Better understanding of the dynamics of transmission and carriage will inform control strategies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study was conducted among 196 mother-infant pairs recruited at birth from six villages in the West Kiang region of The Gambia. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from mother-infant pairs at birth (within 12 hours of delivery), 2, 5 and 12 months. Standard techniques of culture were used to identify carriage and serotype <it>S. pneumoniae</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 46 serotypes identified, the 6 most common, 6A, 6B, 14, 15, 19F and 23F, accounted for 67.3% of the isolates from infants. Carriage of any serotype among infants rose from 1.5% at birth to plateau at approximately 80% by 2 m (prevalence at 2 m = 77%; 5 m = 86%; 12 m = 78%). Likewise, maternal carriage almost doubled in the first 2 months post-partum and remained elevated for the next 10 m (prevalence at birth = 13%; 2 m = 24%; 5 m = 22%; 12 m = 21%). Carriage was significantly seasonal in both infants and mothers with a peak in December and lowest transmission in August. The total number of different serotypes we isolated from each infant varied and less than would be expected had the serotypes assorted independently. In contrast, this variability was much as expected among mothers. The half-life of a serotype colony was estimated to be 1.90 m (CI_95%: 1.66-2.21) in infants and 0.75 m (CI_95%: 0.55-1.19) in mothers. While the odds for a serotype to be isolated from an infant increased by 9-fold if it had also been isolated from the mother, the population attributable fraction (PAF) of pneumococcal carriage in infants due to maternal carriage was only 9.5%. Some marked differences in dynamics were observed between vaccine and non-vaccine serotypes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Colonisation of the nasopharynx in Gambian infants by <it>S. pneumoniae </it>is rapid and highly dynamic. Immunity or inter-serotype competition may play a role in the dynamics. Reducing mother-infant transmission would have a minimal effect on infant carriage.</p

Influenza virus infection among pediatric patients reporting diarrhea and influenza-like illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and hospitalization among children. While less often reported in adults, gastrointestinal symptoms have been associated with influenza in children, including abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From September 2005 and April 2008, pediatric patients in Indonesia presenting with concurrent diarrhea and influenza-like illness were enrolled in a study to determine the frequency of influenza virus infection in young patients presenting with symptoms less commonly associated with an upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). Stool specimens and upper respiratory swabs were assayed for the presence of influenza virus.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seasonal influenza A or influenza B viral RNA was detected in 85 (11.6%) upper respiratory specimens and 21 (2.9%) of stool specimens. Viable influenza B virus was isolated from the stool specimen of one case. During the time of this study, human infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus were common in the survey area. However, among 733 enrolled subjects, none had evidence of H5N1 virus infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The detection of influenza viral RNA and viable influenza virus from stool suggests that influenza virus may be localized in the gastrointestinal tract of children, may be associated with pediatric diarrhea and may serve as a potential mode of transmission during seasonal and epidemic influenza outbreaks.</p

Towards a collaborative research: A case study on linking science to farmers' perceptions and knowledge on Arabica coffee pests and diseases and its management

The scientific community has recognized the importance of integrating farmer's perceptions and knowledge (FPK) for the development of sustainable pest and disease management strategies. However, the knowledge gap between indigenous and scientific knowledge still contributes to misidentification of plant health constraints and poor adoption of management solutions. This is particularly the case in the context of smallholder farming in developing countries. In this paper, we present a case study on coffee production in Uganda, a sector depending mostly on smallholder farming facing a simultaneous and increasing number of socio-ecological pressures. The objectives of this study were (i) to examine and relate FPK on Arabica Coffee Pests and Diseases (CPaD) to altitude and the vegetation structure of the production systems; (ii) to contrast results with perceptions from experts and (iii) to compare results with field observations, in order to identify constraints for improving the information flow between scientists and farmers. Data were acquired by means of interviews and workshops. One hundred and fifty farmer households managing coffee either at sun exposure, under shade trees or inter-cropped with bananas and spread across an altitudinal gradient were selected. Field sampling of the two most important CPaD was conducted on a subset of 34 plots. The study revealed the following findings: (i) Perceptions on CPaD with respect to their distribution across altitudes and perceived impact are partially concordant among farmers, experts and field observations (ii) There are discrepancies among farmers and experts regarding management practices and the development of CPaD issues of the previous years. (iii) Field observations comparing CPaD in different altitudes and production systems indicate ambiguity of the role of shade trees. According to the locality-specific variability in CPaD pressure as well as in FPK, the importance of developing spatially variable and relevant CPaD control practices is proposed. (Résumé d'auteur

Streptococcus pneumoniae Clonal Complex 199: Genetic Diversity and Tissue-Specific Virulence

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important cause of otitis media and invasive disease. Since introduction of the heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, there has been an increase in replacement disease due to serotype 19A clonal complex (CC)199 isolates. The goals of this study were to 1) describe genetic diversity among nineteen CC199 isolates from carriage, middle ear, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid, 2) compare CC199 19A (n = 3) and 15B/C (n = 2) isolates in the chinchilla model for pneumococcal disease, and 3) identify accessory genes associated with tissue-specific disease among a larger collection of S. pneumoniae isolates. CC199 isolates were analyzed by comparative genome hybridization. One hundred and twenty-seven genes were variably present. The CC199 phylogeny split into two main clades, one comprised predominantly of carriage isolates and another of disease isolates. Ability to colonize and cause disease did not differ by serotype in the chinchilla model. However, isolates from the disease clade were associated with faster time to bacteremia compared to carriage clade isolates. One 19A isolate exhibited hypervirulence. Twelve tissue-specific genes/regions were identified by correspondence analysis. After screening a diverse collection of 326 isolates, spr0282 was associated with carriage. Four genes/regions, SP0163, SP0463, SPN05002 and RD8a were associated with middle ear isolates. SPN05002 also associated with blood and CSF, while RD8a associated with blood isolates. The hypervirulent isolate's genome was sequenced using the Solexa paired-end sequencing platform and compared to that of a reference serotype 19A isolate, revealing the presence of a novel 20 kb region with sequence similarity to bacteriophage genes. Genetic factors other than serotype may modulate virulence potential in CC199. These studies have implications for the long-term effectiveness of conjugate vaccines. Ideally, future vaccines would target common proteins to effectively reduce carriage and disease in the vaccinated population

Effects of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Metapneumovirus, Parainfluenza Virus 3 and Influenza Virus on CD4+ T Cell Activation by Dendritic Cells

BACKGROUND: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV), and to a lesser extent human metapneumovirus (HMPV) and human parainfluenza virus type 3 (HPIV3), re-infect symptomatically throughout life without antigenic change, suggestive of incomplete immunity. One causative factor is thought to be viral interference with dendritic cell (DC)-mediated stimulation of CD4+ T cells. METHODOLOGY, PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We infected human monocyte-derived DC with purified HRSV, HMPV, HPIV3, or influenza A virus (IAV) and compared their ability to induce activation and proliferation of autologous CD4+ T cells in vitro. IAV was included because symptomatic re-infection without antigenic change is less frequent, suggesting that immune protection is more complete and durable. We examined virus-specific memory responses and superantigen-induced responses by multiparameter flow cytometry. Live virus was more stimulatory than inactivated virus in inducing DC-mediated proliferation of virus-specific memory CD4+ T cells, suggesting a lack of strong suppression by live virus. There were trends of increasing proliferation in the order: HMPV<HRSV<HPIV3<IAV, and greater production of interferon-γ and tumor necrosis factor-α by proliferating cells in response to IAV, but differences were not significant. Exposure of DC to HRSV, HPIV3, or IAV reduced CD4+ T cell proliferation in response to secondary stimulus with superantigen, but the effect was transitory and greatest for IAV. T cell cytokine production was similar, with no evidence of Th2 or Th17 skewing. CONCLUSIONS, SIGNIFICANCE: Understanding the basis for the ability of HRSV in particular to symptomatically re-infect without significant antigenic change is of considerable interest. The present results show that these common respiratory viruses are similar in their ability to induce DC to activate CD4+ T cells. Thus, the results do not support the common model in which viral suppression of CD4+ T cell activation and proliferation by HRSV, HMPV, and HPIV3 is a major factor in the difference in re-infectability compared to IAV