Why do These Match? Explaining the Behavior of Image Similarity Models

Explaining a deep learning model can help users understand its behavior and allow researchers to discern its shortcomings. Recent work has primarily focused on explaining models for tasks like image classification or visual question answering. In this paper, we introduce Salient Attributes for Network Explanation (SANE) to explain image similarity models, where a model's output is a score measuring the similarity of two inputs rather than a classification score. In this task, an explanation depends on both of the input images, so standard methods do not apply. Our SANE explanations pairs a saliency map identifying important image regions with an attribute that best explains the match. We find that our explanations provide additional information not typically captured by saliency maps alone, and can also improve performance on the classic task of attribute recognition. Our approach's ability to generalize is demonstrated on two datasets from diverse domains, Polyvore Outfits and Animals with Attributes 2. Code available at: https://github.com/VisionLearningGroup/SANEComment: Accepted at ECCV 202

Long-Term Evolution of Massive Black Hole Binaries. II. Binary Evolution in Low-Density Galaxies

We use direct-summation N-body integrations to follow the evolution of binary black holes at the centers of galaxy models with large, constant-density cores. Particle numbers as large as 400K are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of loss-cone theory, under the assumption that the supply of stars to the binary is limited by the rate at which they can be scattered into the binary's influence sphere by gravitational encounters. The agreement between theory and simulation is quite good; in particular, we are able to quantitatively explain the observed dependence of binary hardening rate on N. We do not verify the recent claim of Chatterjee, Hernquist & Loeb (2003) that the hardening rate of the binary stabilizes when N exceeds a particular value, or that Brownian wandering of the binary has a significant effect on its evolution. When scaled to real galaxies, our results suggest that massive black hole binaries in gas-poor nuclei would be unlikely to reach gravitational-wave coalescence in a Hubble time.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

A 2MASS All-Sky View of the Sagittarius Dwarf Galaxy: IV. Modeling the Sagittarius Tidal Tails

M giants recovered from the Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) have recently been used to map the position and velocity distributions of tidal debris from the Sagittarius (Sgr) dwarf spheroidal galaxy entirely around the Galaxy. We compare this data set to both test particle orbits and N-body simulations of satellite destruction run within a variety of rigid Milky Way potentials and find that the mass of the Milky Way within 50 kpc of its center should be 3.8-5.6 x 10^11 Msun in order for any Sgr orbit to simultaneously fit the velocity gradient in the Sgr trailing debris and the apocenter of the Sgr leading debris. Orbital pole precession of young debris and leading debris velocities in regions corresponding to older debris provide contradictory evidence in favor of oblate/prolate Galactic halo potentials respectively, leading us to conclude that the orbit of Sgr has evolved over the past few Gyr. Based upon the velocity dispersion and width along the trailing tidal stream we estimate the current bound mass of Sgr to be M_Sgr = 2 - 5 x 10^8 Msun independant of the form of the Galactic potential; this corresponds to a range of mass to light ratios (M/L)_Sgr = 14 - 36 (M/L)_Sun for the Sgr core. Models with masses in this range best fit the apocenter of leading Sgr tidal debris when they orbit with a radial period of roughly 0.85 Gyr and have periGalactica and apoGalactica of about 15 kpc and 60 kpc respectively. These distances will scale with the assumed distance to the Sgr dwarf and the assumed depth of the Galactic potential. The density distribution of debris along the orbit in these models is consistent with the M giant observations, and debris at all orbital phases where M giants are obviously present is younger (i.e. was lost more recently from the satellite) than the typical age of a Sgr M giant star.Comment: 42 pages, 13 figures; Accepted for publication by ApJ (October 08, 2004; originally submitted May 10, 2004). Fixed typos and added references. PDF file with high resolution figures may be downloaded from http://www.astro.caltech.edu/~drlaw/Papers/Sgr_paper4.pd

Psychosocial outcomes of an inclusive adapted sport and adventurous training course for military personnel.

PURPOSE: To explore the psychosocial outcomes of an inclusive adapted sport and adventurous training course that aims to support the rehabilitation and personal development of military personnel who have sustained physical and/or psychological disability. METHOD: Narrative life story interviews were conducted with 11 men aged 20-43 taking part in one of the 5-day courses. A thematic narrative analysis was conducted, focusing on accounts that provided insights into personally meaningful psychosocial outcomes of the course. FINDINGS: We identified six themes, falling into two distinct clusters. "Bringing me back to myself" was achieved through the themes of (1) returning to activity, (2) rediscovering a sense of purpose, and (3) reconnecting to others. "New rooms to explore" was realised through (4) experiencing new activities, (5) being valued/respected/cared for and (6) being inspired by other people. CONCLUSION: Involvement in the course stimulated a balance of present- and future-oriented psychosocial outcomes through which participants both recreated aspects of themselves that had been lost through injury/trauma and moved forward with their lives as a result of new horizons of possibility. IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION: This 5-day inclusive adapted sport and adventurous training course offered meaningful psychosocial outcomes among military personnel who had experienced physical and/or psychological disability. The course helped participants recover aspects of their previous life and self through becoming physically active again, rediscovering a sense of purpose and reconnecting to others. Participants describe a broadening of life horizons as a result of the course, through new activities, being valued/respected/cared for, and being inspired by other people

Historical tropospheric and stratospheric ozone radiative forcing using the CMIP6 database

We calculate ozone radiative forcing (RF) and stratospheric temperature adjustments for the period 1850-2014 using the newly availableCMIP6 ozone dataset. The CMIP6 total ozone RF (1850s-2000s) is 0.28+/-0.17 W m-2 (which is 80% higher than our CMIP5 estimation), and 0.30+/-0.17 W m-2 out to the present day (2014). The total ozone RF grows rapidly until the 1970s, slows towards the 2000s, and shows a renewed growth thereafter. Since the 1990s the shortwave RF exceeds the longwave RF. Global stratospheric ozone RF is positive between 1930 and 1970 and then turns negative, but remains positive in the Northern Hemisphere throughout. Derived stratospheric temperature changes show a localized cooling in the subtropical lower stratosphere due to tropospheric ozone increases, and cooling in the upper stratosphere due to ozone depletion by more than 1K already prior to the satellite era (1980), and by more than 2K out to the present day(2014)

The climate impact of past changes in halocarbons and CO2in the tropical UTLS region

A chemistry-climate model coupled to an ocean model is used to compare the climate impact of past (1960-2010) changes in concentrations of halocarbons with those of CO2 in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The halocarbon contribution to both upper troposphere warming and the associated increase in lower stratospheric upwelling is about 40% as large as that due to CO2. Trends in cold-point temperature and lower stratosphere water vapor are positive for both halocarbons and CO2, and are of about the same magnitude. Trends in lower stratosphere ozone are negative, due to the increased upwelling. These increases in water vapor and decreases in lower stratosphere ozone feed back on lower stratosphere temperature through radiative cooling. The radiative cooling from ozone is about a factor of two larger than that from water vapor in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, while water vapor dominates at heights above 50 hPa. For halocarbons this indirect radiative cooling more than offsets the direct radiative warming, and together with the adiabatic cooling accounts for the lack of a halocarbon-induced warming of the lower stratosphere. For CO2 the indirect cooling from increased water vapor and decreased ozone is of comparable magnitude to the direct warming from CO2 in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, and (together with the increased upwelling) lowers the height at which CO2 increases induce stratospheric cooling, thus explaining the relatively weak increase in cold-point temperature due to the CO2 increases

Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Glaciers respond to climate variations and leave geomorphic evidence that represents an important terrestrial paleoclimate record. However, the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions from glacial geology is limited by the challenge of representing mountain meteorology in numerical models. Precipitation is usually treated in a simple manner and yet represents difficult-to-characterize variables such as amount, distribution, and phase. Furthermore, precipitation distributions during a glacial probably differed from present-day interglacial patterns. We applied two models to investigate glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation in the eastern Southern Alps of New Zealand. A 2-D model was used to quantify variations in the length of the reconstructed glaciers resulting from plausible precipitation distributions compared to variations in length resulting from change in mean annual air temperature and precipitation amount. A 1-D model was used to quantify variations in length resulting from interannual climate variability. Assuming that present-day interglacial values represent precipitation distributions during the last glacial, a range of plausible present-day precipitation distributions resulted in uncertainty in the Last Glacial Maximum length of the Pukaki Glacier of 17.1 km (24%) and the Rakaia Glacier of 9.3 km (25%), corresponding to a 0.5°C difference in temperature. Smaller changes in glacier length resulted from a 50% decrease in precipitation amount from present-day values (−14% and −18%) and from a 50% increase in precipitation amount (5% and 9%). Our results demonstrate that precipitation distribution can produce considerable variation in simulated glacier extents and that reconstructions of paleoglaciers should include this uncertainty

Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model that is coupled to an ocean is used to investigate the separate effects of climate change and ozone depletion on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere. This is achieved by performing three sets of simulations extending from 1960 to 2099: 1) greenhouse gases (GHGs) fixed at 1960 levels and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) varying in time, 2) ODSs fixed at 1960 levels and GHGs varying in time, and 3) both GHGs and ODSs varying in time. The response of various dynamical quantities to theGHGand ODS forcings is shown to be additive; that is, trends computed from the sum of the first two simulations are equal to trends from the third. Additivity is shown to hold for the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, the mass flux into and out of the stratosphere, and the latitudinally averaged wave drag in SH spring and summer, as well as for final warming dates. Ozone depletion and recovery causes seasonal changes in lower-stratosphere mass flux, with reduced polar downwelling in the past followed by increased downwelling in the future in SH spring, and the reverse in SH summer. These seasonal changes are attributed to changes in wave drag caused by ozone-induced changes in the zonal mean zonal winds. Climate change, on the other hand, causes a steady decrease in wave drag during SH spring, which delays the breakdown of the vortex, resulting in increased wave drag in summe

Characterising the seasonal and geographical variability in tropospheric ozone, stratospheric influence and recent changes

The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability, and its changes and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified-dynamics chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry – Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (IGAC-SPARC) (IGAC–SPARC) Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozone-sonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (∼0–5.5 km) sub-column ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2 to 8 Dobson units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (∼±4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozone-sondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with a negative bias in the troposphere resulting from a likely underestimation of photochemical ozone production. This has ramifications for diagnosing the level of model–measurement agreement. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozone-sondes in comparison with OMI, which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is inferred that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) compared to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is significant and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long-term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5 %–10 %) between 1980–1989 and 2001–2010. Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25 % to 30 % at the surface to as much as 50 %–80 % in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) across some regions of the world, including western Eurasia, eastern North America, the South Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere