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    Evaluating the Clinical Utility of a Biomarker: A Review of Methods for Estimating Health Impact

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    Biomarkers, broadly defined, are markers of a biological process or state.1 Biomarkers are often used in research studies, but they may also be useful for clinicians and patients if they provide information about current status or future risk of disease. It is not always clear, however, when a novel biomarker provides enough useful information to justify measuring it in the context of clinical care. Evaluating the clinical utility of a novel biomarker requires a phased approach.2 Early-phase studies must prove that the biomarker is associated statistically with the clinical state of interest and adds information about presence or risk of disease above and beyond established markers. Midphase studies describe how often this incremental information might alter physician prescribing decisions. Early- and mid-phase studies are useful because they help investigators compare biomarker performance in terms that are generic (ie, not dependent on the specifics of the disease state being studied). Generic measures of biomarker performance have been reviewed previously2,–,16 and are described in Table 1 along with relevant published examples.17,–,32 View this table: Table 1. Generic Measures of Biomarker Performance Measuring biomarker performance in generic terms, however, is not sufficient for demonstrating clinical utility.6 The decision to use a biomarker in clinical practice should be based on an expectation that it will have a positive net health impact, and measuring health impact, by definition, requires use of measurements that consider the specific disease state being studied and its consequences. The goal of this review is to describe the methods by which evidence about the health impact of measuring a biomarker may be generated (late-phase evidence2) using examples relevant to cardiovascular disease and with a focus on the use of randomized clinical trials and modeling for estimating health impact. ### Mechanisms by Which Biomarker Measurement Can Impact Health There are 3 fundamental
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