Simplified methods of assessing the impact of grid frequency dynamics upon generating plants

The frequency of the national electricity grid is affected by fluctuations in supply and demand, and so continually "judders" in an essentially unpredictable fashion around 50 Hz. At present such perturbations do not seemingly affect Nuclear Electric as most of their plant is run at more or less constant load, but they would like to be able to offer the national grid a mode of operation in which they "followed" the grid frequency: i.e., as the frequency rose above or fell below 50 Hz, the plant's output would be adjusted so as to tend to restore the frequency to 50 Hz. The aim is to maintain grid frequency within 0.2 Hz of its notional value. Such a mode of operation, however, would cause a certain amount of damage to plant components owing to the consequent continual changes in temperature and pressure within them. Nuclear Electric currently have complex computational models of how plants will behave under these conditions, which allows them to compute plant data (e.g., reactor temperatures) from given grid frequency data. One approach to damage assessment would require several years'-worth of real grid data to be fed into this model and the corresponding damage computed (via "cycle distributions" created by their damage experts). The results of this analysis would demonstrate one of three possibilities: the damage may be acceptable under all reasonable operating conditions; or it may be acceptable except in the case of an exceptional abrupt change in grid frequency (caused by power transmission line failure, or another power station suddenly going off-line, for instance), in which case some kind of backup supply (e.g., gas boilers) would be required; or it may simply be unacceptable. However, their current model runs in approximately real time, making it inappropriate for such a large amount of data: our problem was to suggest alternative approaches. Specifically, we were asked the following questions: - Can component damage be reliably estimated directly from cycle distributions of grid frequency? i.e., are there maps from frequency cycle distributions to plant parameter cycle distributions? - Can a simple model of plant dynamics be used to assess the potential for such maps? - What methods can be used to select representative samples of grid frequency behaviour? - What weightings should be applied to the selections? - Is it possible to construct a "cycle transform" (Fourier transform) which will capture the essential features of grid frequency and which can then be inverted to generate simulated frequency transients? We did not consider this last question, other than to say "probably not". We were supplied with data of the actual grid frequency measurements for the evening of 29/7/95, and the corresponding plant responses (obtained using Nuclear Electric's current computational model). A simplified nonlinear mathematical model of the plant was also provided. Two main approaches were considered: statistical prediction and analytical modelling via a reduction of the simplified plant model

Long term behaviour of geothermal reservoirs

A number of different aspects of geothermal reservoir behaviour were studied during the week. These ranged from the correct formulation of the thermo-elastic deformation equations for granite, and the possible practical methods of implementing the thermo-elastic effects within the existing large computer codes, to the generation of simple models describing the long term thermal effects. This report describes the results of simple modelling. The approach was to consider first how the rock cooled as a result of water moving through the network of cracks and then to consider second how this cooling might change the rock stresses and water viscosity, and hence the effective permeability of the cracks, thereby altering the flow pattern from inlet to outlet bore-hole

Do the Barker Codes End?

A Barker code is a binary code with k^th autocorrelation <= 1 for all nonzero k. At the workshop, the Barker code group split into four non-disjoint subgroups: - An "algebra group", who explored symmetries of the search space that preserve the autocorrelations' magnitude. - A "computing group", who explored methods for quickly finding binary codes with very good autocorrelation properties. - A "statistics group", who explored ways to quantify what has been empirically observed about autocorrelation in the search space S_2^N. - A "continuous group", who explored a non-discrete analogue of the problem of finding sequences with good autocorrelations

Modelling Li+ Ion Battery Electrode Properties

We formulated two detailed models for an electrolytic cell with particulate electrodes based on a lithium atom concentration dependent Butler-Volmer condition at the interface between electrode particles and the electrolyte. The first was based on a dilute-ion assumption for the electrolyte, while the second assumed that Li ions are present in excess. For the first, we used the method of multiple scales to homogenize this model over the microstructure, formed by the small lithium particles in the electrodes. For the second, we gave rigorous bounds for the effective electrochemical conductivity for a linearized case. We expect similar results and bounds for the "full nonlinear problem" because variational results are generally not adversely affected by a sinh term. Finally we used the asymptotic methods, based on parameters estimated from the literature, to attain a greatly simplified one-dimensional version of the original homogenized model. This simplified model accounts for the fact that diffusion of lithium atoms within individual electrode particles is relatively much faster than that of lithium ions across the whole cell so that lithium ion diffusion is what limits the performance of the battery. However, since most of the potential drop occurs across the Debye layers surrounding each electrode particle, lithium ion diffusion only significantly affects cell performance if there is more or less complete depletion of lithium ions in some region of the electrolyte which causes a break in the current flowing across the cell. This causes catastrophic failure. Providing such failure does not occur the potential drop across the cell is determined by the concentration of lithium atoms in the electrode particles. Within each electrode lithium atom concentration is, to leading order, a function of time only and not of position within the electrode. The depletion of electrode lithium atom concentration is directly proportional to the current being drawn off the cell. This leads one to expect that the potential of the cell gradually drops as current is drawn of it. We would like to emphasize that all the homogenization methods employed in this work give a systematic approach for investigating the effect that changes in the microstructure have on the behaviour of the battery. However, due to lack of time, we have not used this method to investigate particular particle geometries

Chronic wounds in Sierra Leone: searching for Buruli ulcer, a NTD caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, at Masanga Hospital

BACKGROUND: Chronic wounds pose a significant healthcare burden in low- and middle-income countries. Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans infection, causes wounds with high morbidity and financial burden. Although highly endemic in West and Central Africa, the presence of BU in Sierra Leone is not well described. This study aimed to confirm or exclude BU in suspected cases of chronic wounds presenting to Masanga Hospital, Sierra Leone. METHODOLOGY: Demographics, baseline clinical data, and quality of life scores were collected from patients with wounds suspected to be BU. Wound tissue samples were acquired and transported to the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Switzerland, for analysis to detect Mycobacterium ulcerans using qPCR, microscopic smear examination, and histopathology, as per World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. FINDINGS: Twenty-one participants with wounds suspected to be BU were enrolled over 4-weeks (Feb-March 2019). Participants were predominantly young working males (62% male, 38% female, mean 35yrs, 90% employed in an occupation or as a student) with large, single, ulcerating wounds (mean diameter 9.4cm, 86% single wound) exclusively of the lower limbs (60% foot, 40% lower leg) present for a mean 15 months. The majority reported frequent exposure to water outdoors (76%). Self-reports of over-the-counter antibiotic use prior to presentation was high (81%), as was history of trauma (38%) and surgical interventions prior to enrolment (48%). Regarding laboratory investigation, all samples were negative for BU by microscopy, histopathology, and qPCR. Histopathology analysis revealed heavy bacterial load in many of the samples. The study had excellent participant recruitment, however follow-up proved difficult. CONCLUSIONS: BU was not confirmed as a cause of chronic ulceration in our cohort of suspected cases, as judged by laboratory analysis according to WHO standards. This does not exclude the presence of BU in the region, and the definitive cause of these treatment-resistance chronic wounds is uncertain

Evaluating Lossy Data Compression on Climate Simulation Data within a Large Ensemble

High-resolution Earth system model simulations generate enormous data volumes, and retaining the data from these simulations often strains institutional storage resources. Further, these exceedingly large storage requirements negatively impact science objectives, for example, by forcing reductions in data output frequency, simulation length, or ensemble size. To lessen data volumes from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we advocate the use of lossy data compression techniques. While lossy data compression does not exactly preserve the original data (as lossless compression does), lossy techniques have an advantage in terms of smaller storage requirements. To preserve the integrity of the scientific simulation data, the effects of lossy data compression on the original data should, at a minimum, not be statistically distinguishable from the natural variability of the climate system, and previous preliminary work with data from CESM has shown this goal to be attainable. However, to ultimately convince climate scientists that it is acceptable to use lossy data compression, we provide climate scientists with access to publicly available climate data that have undergone lossy data compression. In particular, we report on the results of a lossy data compression experiment with output from the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) Community Project, in which we challenge climate scientists to examine features of the data relevant to their interests, and attempt to identify which of the ensemble members have been compressed and reconstructed. We find that while detecting distinguishing features is certainly possible, the compression effects noticeable in these features are often unimportant or disappear in post-processing analyses. In addition, we perform several analyses that directly compare the original data to the reconstructed data to investigate the preservation, or lack thereof, of specific features critical to climate science. Overall, we conclude that applying lossy data compression to climate simulation data is both advantageous in terms of data reduction and generally acceptable in terms of effects on scientific results