CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios

Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle-climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse-response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO2 mitigation is limited and net CO2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the centur

Deployment and Evaluation of Sinusoidal Rumble Strips

Centerline and edge line rumble strips are effective tools for reducing crashes, but the resulting noise of rumble strip incursions can be disruptive to nearby residents. Sinusoidal rumble strips are emerging as quieter rumble strip construction technology. In this session we will discuss the design, construction, and evaluation of sinusoidal rumble strips on IN 1 in Fort Wayne

Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks

Anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections. A central problem are the large uncertainties associated with these model projections, and that uncertainty estimates are often based on expert judgment rather than objective quantitative methods. Further, important climate model parameters are still given as poorly constrained ranges that are partly inconsistent with the observed warming during the industrial period. Here we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by at least an order of magnitude. Using the observed surface warming over the industrial period and estimates of global ocean heat uptake as constraints for the ensemble, this method estimates ranges for climate sensitivity and radiative forcing that are consistent with observations. In particular, negative values for the uncertain indirect aerosol forcing exceeding -1.2Wm-2 can be excluded with high confidence. A parameterization to account for the uncertainty in the future carbon cycle is introduced, derived separately from a carbon cycle model. This allows us to quantify the effect of the feedback between oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake and global warming on global temperature projections. Finally, probability density functions for the surface warming until year 2100 for two illustrative emission scenarios are calculated, taking into account uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, model parameters and the observed temperature records. We find that warming exceeds the surface warming range projected by IPCC for almost half of the ensemble members. Projection uncertainties are only consistent with IPCC if a model-derived upper limit of about 5K is assumed for climate sensitivit

Fatal scuba diving incident with massive gas embolism in cerebral and spinal arteries

CT and MRI have the potential to become useful adjuncts to forensic autopsy in the near future. The examination of fatal injuries facilitates a profound experience in the clinical-radiological examination of these cases; the more severe findings in corpses with autopsy verification can help one to understand the tiny signs seen in clinical cases of surviving victims. We present the case of a 44-year-old male diver who died from severe decompression sickness after rapid ascent from approximately 120m. Post-mortem CT and MRI studies of the brain and spinal cord revealed extensive gas inclusions in cerebral arteries, spinal arteries and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces, while the intracranial venous sinuses remained unaffected. These findings were confirmed at autopsy. Appropriate imaging techniques can help forensic pathologists to aim their autopsies at findings that might otherwise remain undetecte

Model sensitivity in the effect of Antarctic sea ice and stratification on atmospheric pCO2

Several recent papers have demonstrated a decrease in atmospheric pCO(2) resulting from barriers to communication between the deep sea and the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean. Stephens and Keeling [2000] decreased pCO(2) by increasing Antarctic sea ice in a seven-box model of the world ocean, and Toggweiler [1999] showed a similar response to Southern Ocean stratification. In box models the pCO(2) of the atmosphere is controlled by the region of the surface ocean that fills the deep sea [Archer et al., 2000a]. By severing the Southern Ocean link between the deep sea and the atmosphere, atmospheric pCO(2) in these models is controlled elsewhere and typically declines, although the models range widely in their responses. "Continuum models,'' such as three-dimensional (3-D) and 2-D general circulation models, control pCO(2) in a more distributed way and do not exhibit box model sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice or presumably stratification. There is still uncertainty about the high-latitude sensitivity of the real ocean. Until these model sensitivities can be resolved, glacial pCO(2) hypotheses and interpretations based on Southern Ocean barrier mechanisms (see above mentioned references plus Elderfield and Rickaby [2000], Francois et al. [1998], Gildor and Tziperman [2001], Sigman and Boyle [2000], and Watson et al. [2000]) are walking on thin ice

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Assessment of Alternative Sinusoidal Rumble Stripe Construction

Studies have shown that rumble strips installed on a roadway significantly reduce the number of accidents caused by lane departures. However, when a vehicle engages the strips, a loud exterior noise is generated in addition to the alerting in-cabin noise. The extraneous exterior noise can travel at least several hundred feet at a volume which is considered a nuisance by nearby residents. In the recent years, a new rumble strip design in the form of a sine wave has been reported to produce low exterior noise, while still providing adequate warnings for drivers. This study evaluated three sinusoidal rumble strips of different wavelengths—12, 18, and 24 inch. The rumble strips were quantitatively compared by measuring the noise inside and outside of the vehicle as well as the vibration of the front seat frame. Results showed that the sound responses varied across the vehicles. From the exterior, all three sinusoidal rumble strips were quieter than the traditional rumble strips, with a reduction in sound power by 5 to 11 dBA. Interior cabin sound level was similar to standard rumble strips, with some cases increasing between 2 and 9 dBA. The retro reflectivity tests also exceed the minimum threshold set by INDOT specifications. Sinusoidal rumbles strips are a promising technology that is well suited for lane departure warning in residential areas. The results from this study suggest that the 12 in wavelength has a desirable decrease in exterior noise while still maintaining adequate lane departure warning to the driver