Uncertainty in diffusion of competing technologies and application to electric vehicles

The diffusion of innovations is an important process and its models have applications in many fields, with particular relevance in technological forecast. The logistic equation is one of most important models in this context. Extensions of this approach as the Lotka-Volterra model have been developed to include the effect of mutual influences between technologies such as competition. However, many of the parameters entering this description are uncertain, difficult to estimate or simply unknown, particularly at early stages of the diffusion. Here, a systematic way to study the effect of uncertain or unknown parameters on the future diffusion of interacting innovations is proposed. The input required is a general qualitative understanding of the system: is the mutual influence positive or negative and does it apply symmetrically to either technology? Since the parameters enter the problem via a set of coupled non-linear differential equations, the approach proposed here goes beyond simple Monte-Carlo-like methods where the result is an explicit function of the parameters. The methodology is developed in detail and applied the case of three types of upcoming electric vehicle propulsion technologies. The findings indicate that competition between electric vehicles and mild hybrid vehicles implies a slow decline of the latter. The approach can easily be generalised to include other initial conditions, more technologies or other technological areas to find stable results for future market evolution independent of specific parameters. --diffusion of innovations,logistic equation,competition,electric vehicles,Monte Carlo methods

Technical Feasibility of Heavy-Duty Battery-Electric Trucks for Urban and Regional Delivery in Germany—A Real-World Case Study

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the Paris Agreement is challenging for road freight. While heavy-duty battery-electric trucks (BET) promise tremendous and immediate reduction potential, literature increasingly confirms technical feasibility in general, and several manufacturers launched BET models. However, their real-world application is still being questioned by fleet owners due to the limited range or payload penalties. Thus, our case study aims to assess the technical feasibility of urban and regional delivery in Germany based on real-world and per-vehicle operational data that feed into an energy simulation with Monte-Carlo modeling. Our results demonstrate the importance of vehicle-specific examination for the right battery capacity that ideally matches the vehicle’s operating profile. We find that full electrification may be most accessible for 18-t and 26-t rigid solo trucks, soon followed by tractor-trailers, while truck-trailers turn out as most challenging. With up to 600 kWh battery capacity available in all truck classes, we find nearly 40% of all transport performance and 60% of all diesel trucks may be replaced with BET—while already 400 kWh is sufficient for half of all trucks. Additional measures such as intermediate charging and adjusted and more flexible truck-tour allocation may significantly accelerate electrificatio

Status Quo und Perspektiven der Elektromobilität in Deutschland

Elektromobilität bietet große Potenziale zur Reduktion der verkehrsbedingten Treibhausgasemissionen und Erhöhung der Versorgungssicherheit, bedeutet aber auch Veränderungen in der Automobilbranche. In der Vielzahl der Entwicklungen und Ereignisse gehen häufig der Blick auf die wesentlichen Ergebnisse und die Perspektive für zentrale Entwicklungen verloren. Die vorliegende Studie versucht in diesem Umfeld Orientierung zu bieten und die zentralen Punkte des Absatzmarktes, der politischen Rahmenbedingungen und zukünftiger Nutzer darstellen. Den Ausgangspunkt bilden der aktuelle deutsche PKW-Markt und die Entwicklungen der letzten Jahre. Die nahe Zukunft der Elektromobilität in Deutschland wird mittels der Ankündigung großer Hersteller, politischer Rahmenbedingungen und vorliegenden Ergebnisse zu den möglichen Erstkäufern charakterisiert. Anhand von Trends lassen sich langfristige Entwicklungen skizzieren. Es lässt sich feststellen, dass heute kaum Elektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland zu-gelassen sind, was teilweise daran liegt, dass kaum Fahrzeuge käuflich erwerbbar sind. Mittlerweile haben einige Fahrzeughersteller Elektromobile in Aussicht gestellt, jedoch möchte die Politik einen Kauf bislang nicht direkt subventionieren, um Preisdifferenzen auszugleichen und den Markt anzukurbeln. Stattdessen setzt die Politik auf indirekte und vornehmlich non-monetäre Instrumente. In Hinblick auf eine mögliche Leitanbieterschaft scheint Deutschland insbesondere im Bereich der Elektromotoren gut aufgestellt, bei Leistungselektronik und Fahrzeugen ist man auf Augenhöhe mit zahlreichen weiteren Konkurrenten, während im Batteriebereich vor allem asiatische und nordamerikanische Hersteller den deutschen voraus sind. --Elektromobilität,Transport,Automobilbranche,Automobilwirtschaft

Complex Dynamics of Ultracold Atoms

Motivated by current experiments with ultracold atoms, the study of complex dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates in optical lattices forms the central subject of this work. A lattice model of interacting bosons under the influence of an external force is motivated and derived from the experimental setup. Several dynamical regimes of this model are discussed in this thesis. In a first part we will develop a new measure for detecting avoided crossings in complex energy spectra and apply it to the quantum chaotic regime of the single-band system. The second and main part of this work is dedicated to the coupling between energy bands described in terms of a two-band model. The complex time evolution is already apparent in the horizontal and vertical population dynamics of the non-interacting problem. We find resonances in the interband transport, and, in a second step, study the effect of inter-particle interactions on these resonant oscillations. We are able to predict all time scales of the complex interband dynamics even in the presence of interactions. This is possible via the introduction of an effective model that is motivated and supported by a multitude of numerical results and proves exactly solvable

Market diffusion of alternative fuels and powertrains in heavy-duty vehicles: A literature review

With about 22%, the transport sector is one of the largest global emitters of the greenhouse gas CO₂. Long-distance road freight transport accounts for a large and rising share within this sector. For this reason, in February 2019, the European Union agreed to introduce CO₂ emission standards following Canada, China, Japan and the United States. One way to reduce CO₂ emissions from long-distance road freight transport is to use alternative powertrains in trucks — especially heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) because of their high mileage, weight and fuel consumption. Multiple alternative fuels and powertrains (AFPs) have been proposed as potential options to lower CO₂ emissions. However, the current research does not paint a clear picture of the path towards decarbonizing transport that uses AFPs in HDVs. The aim of this literature review is to understand the current state of research on the market diffusion of HDVs with alternative powertrains. We present a summary of market diffusion studies of AFPs in HDVs, including their methods, main findings and policy recommendations. We compare and synthesize the results of these studies to identify strengths and weaknesses in the field, and to propose further options to improve AFP HDV market diffusion modelling. All the studies expect AFPs on a small scale in their reference scenarios under current regulations. In climate protection scenarios, however, AFPs dominate the market, indicating their positive effect on CO₂ reduction. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the emergence of a superior AFP technology for HDVs. The authors of this review recommend more research into policy measures, and that infrastructure development and energy supply should be included in order to obtain a holistic understanding of modelling AFP market diffusion for HDVs

Global Perspective on CO2 Emission Dynamics of Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a promising option for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the transport sector - especially when the fast decrease in carbon emissions from electricity provision is considered. The rapid uptake of renewable electricity generation worldwide implies an unprecedented change that affects the carbon content of electricity for battery production as well as charging and thus the GHG mitigation potential of PEV. However, most studies assume fixed carbon content of the electricity in the environmental assessment of PEV and the fast change of the generation mix has not been studied on a global scale yet. Furthermore, the inclusion of up-stream emissions remains an open policy problem. Here, we apply a reduced life cycle assessment approach including the well-to-wheel emissions of PEV and taking into account future changes in the electricity mix. We compare future global energy scenarios and combine them with PEV diffusion scenarios. Our results show that the remaining carbon budget is best used with a very early PEV market diffusion; waiting for cleaner PEV battery production cannot compensate for the lost carbon budget in combustion vehicle usage

Global Perspective on CO2 Emission Dynamics of Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a promising option for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the transport sector - especially when the fast decrease in carbon emissions from electricity provision is considered. The rapid uptake of renewable electricity generation worldwide implies an unprecedented change that affects the carbon content of electricity for battery production as well as charging and thus the GHG mitigation potential of PEV. However, most studies assume fixed carbon content of the electricity in the environmental assessment of PEV and the fast change of the generation mix has not been studied on a global scale yet. Furthermore, the inclusion of up-stream emissions remains an open policy problem. Here, we apply a reduced life cycle assessment approach including the well-to-wheel emissions of PEV and taking into account future changes in the electricity mix. We compare future global energy scenarios and combine them with PEV diffusion scenarios. Our results show that the remaining carbon budget is best used with a very early PEV market diffusion; waiting for cleaner PEV battery production cannot compensate for the lost carbon budget in combustion vehicle usage