An Efficient Method to Take into Account Forecast Uncertainties in Large Scale Probabilistic Power Flow

The simulation of uncertainties due to renewable and load forecasts is becoming more and more important in security assessment analyses performed on large scale networks. This paper presents an efficient method to account for forecast uncertainties in probabilistic power flow (PPF) applications, based on the combination of PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and PEM (Point Estimate Method), in the context of operational planning studies applied to large scale AC grids. The benchmark against the conventional PEM method applied to large power system models shows that the proposed method assures high speed up ratios, preserving a good accuracy of the marginal distributions of the outputs

Ghrelin regulates proliferation and differentiation of osteoblastic cells

Abstract It has previously been reported that growth hormone secretagogues (GHS) may have a role in the regulation of bone metabolism in animals and humans. In this study we evaluated the effect of ghrelin, the endogenous ligand of GHS receptors, on the proliferation rate and on osteoblast activity in primary cultures of rat calvaria osteoblasts. In the same experiments, we compared the effects of ghrelin with those of hexarelin (HEXA) and EP-40737, two synthetic GHS with different characteristics. Both ghrelin and HEXA (10(-11)-10(-8) M) significantly stimulated osteoblast proliferation at low concentrations (10(-10) M). Surprisingly, EP-40737 demonstrated an antiproliferative effect at 10(-9)-10(-8) M, whereas lower concentrations had no effect on cell proliferation. Ghrelin and HEXA significantly increased alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and osteocalcin (OC) production. At variance with these peptides, EP-40737 did not significantly stimulate ALP and OC. The mRNA for GHS-R1a receptors and the corresponding protein were detected in calvarial osteoblasts by RT-PCR and Western blot respectively, indicating that ghrelin and GHS may bind and activate this specific receptor. We conclude that endogenous ghrelin and synthetic GHS modulate proliferation and differentiation of rat osteoblasts, probably by acting on their specific receptor

A Risk-Based Methodology and Tool Combining Threat Analysis and Power System Security Assessment

A thorough investigation of power system security requires the analysis of the vulnerabilities to natural and man-related threats which potentially trigger multiple contingencies. In particular, extreme weather events are becoming more and more frequent due to climate changes and often cause large load disruptions on the system, thus the support for security enhancement gets tricky. Exploiting data coming from forecasting systems in a security assessment environment can help assess the risk of operating power systems subject to the disturbances provoked by the weather event itself. In this context, the paper proposes a security assessment methodology, based on an updated definition of risk suitable for power system risk evaluations. Big data analytics can be useful to get an accurate model for weather-related threats. The relevant software (SW) platform integrates the security assessment methodology with prediction systems which provide short term forecasts of the threats affecting the system. The application results on a real wet snow threat scenario in the Italian High Voltage grid demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security approaches, by complementing the conventional "N - 1" security criterion and exploiting big data to link the security assessment phase to the analysis of incumbent threat

Interobserver reproducibility in pathologist interpretation of columnar-lined esophagus

Confirmation of endoscopically suspected esophageal metaplasia (ESEM) requires histology, but confusion in the histological definition of columnar-lined esophagus (CLE) is a longstanding problem. The aim of this study is to evaluate interpathologist variability in the interpretation of CLE. Thirty pathologists were invited to review three ten-case sets of CLE biopsies. In the first set, the cases were provided with descriptive endoscopy only; in the second and the third sets, ESEM extent using Prague criteria was provided. Moreover, participants were required to refer to a diagnostic chart for evaluation of the third set. Agreement was statistically assessed using Randolph’s free-marginal multirater kappa. While substantial agreement in recognizing columnar epithelium (K = 0.76) was recorded, the overall concordance in clinico-pathological diagnosis was low (K = 0.38). The overall concordance rate improved from the first (K = 0.27) to the second (K = 0.40) and third step (K = 0.46). Agreement was substantial when diagnosing Barrett’s esophagus (BE) with intestinal metaplasia or inlet patch (K = 0.65 and K = 0.89), respectively, in the third step, while major problems in interpretation of CLE were observed when only cardia/cardia-oxyntic atrophic-type epithelium was present (K = 0.05–0.29). In conclusion, precise endoscopic description and the use of a diagnostic chart increased consistency in CLE interpretation of esophageal biopsies. Agreement was substantial for some diagnostic categories (BE with intestinal metaplasia and inlet patch) with a well-defined clinical profile. Interpretation of cases with cardia/cardia-oxyntic atrophic-type epithelium, with or without ESEM, was least consistent, which reflects lack of clarity of definition and results in variable management of this entity

A multi-scale modelling framework combining musculoskeletal rigid-body simulations with adaptive finite element analyses, to evaluate the impact of femoral geometry on hip joint contact forces and femoral bone growth

Multi-scale simulations, combining muscle and joint contact force (JCF) from musculoskeletal simulations with adaptive mechanobiological finite element analysis, allow to estimate musculoskeletal loading and predict femoral growth in children. Generic linearly scaled musculoskeletal models are commonly used. This approach, however, neglects subject- and age-specific musculoskeletal geometry, e.g. femoral neck-shaft angle (NSA) and anteversion angle (AVA). This study aimed to evaluate the impact of proximal femoral geometry, i.e. altered NSA and AVA, on hip JCF and femoral growth simulations. Musculoskeletal models with NSA ranging from 120° to 150° and AVA ranging from 20° to 50° were created and used to calculate muscle and hip JCF based on the gait analysis data of a typically developing child. A finite element model of a paediatric femur was created from magnetic resonance images. The finite element model was morphed to the geometries of the different musculoskeletal models and used for mechanobiological finite element analysis to predict femoral growth trends. Our findings showed that hip JCF increase with increasing NSA and AVA. Furthermore, the orientation of the hip JCF followed the orientation of the femoral neck axis. Consequently, the osteogenic index, which is a function of cartilage stresses and defines the growth rate, barely changed with altered NSA and AVA. Nevertheless, growth predictions were sensitive to the femoral geometry due to changes in the predicted growth directions. Altered NSA had a bigger impact on the growth results than altered AVA. Growth simulations based on mechanobiological principles were in agreement with reported changes in paediatric populations

An H-TERT Mutated Skin Metastasis as First Occurrence in a Case of Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma

Differentiated thyroid cancer arising from thyroid follicular epithelial cells is the most frequent endocrine malignancy, and skin metastases are very rare. We describe a case of a 70-year-old women with a history of an indeterminate thyroid nodule on cytology. A painless, erythematous skin nodule of about 7 mm diameter was removed from the scalp and diagnosed as a metastasis from thyroid cancer. After total thyroidectomy, a histological diagnosis of follicular thyroid cancer was made. Two cycles of radioactive iodine were performed. Both the follicular thyroid carcinoma and the metastasis were investigated for the presence of BRAF/RAS and TERT promoter mutations. The results showed that the cutaneous metastasis was BRAF wild-type and TERT promoter-mutated (position g.1,295,228 C>T); in contrast, the primary thyroid lesion was negative for both molecular markers

A custom-made guide-wire positioning device for Hip Surface Replacement Arthroplasty: description and first results

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hip surface replacement arthroplasty (SRA) can be an alternative for total hip arthroplasty. The short and long-term outcome of hip surface replacement arthroplasty mainly relies on the optimal size and position of the femoral component. This can be defined before surgery with pre-operative templating. Reproducing the optimal, templated femoral implant position during surgery relies on guide wire positioning devices in combination with visual inspection and experience of the surgeon. Another method of transferring the templated position into surgery is by navigation or Computer Assisted Surgery (CAS). Though CAS is documented to increase accurate placement particularly in case of normal hip anatomy, it requires bulky equipment that is not readily available in each centre.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A custom made neck jig device is presented as well as the results of a pilot study.</p> <p>The device is produced based on data pre-operatively acquired with CT-scan. The position of the guide wire is chosen as the anatomical axis of the femoral neck. Adjustments to the design of the jig are made based on the orthopedic surgeon's recommendations for the drill direction. The SRA jig is designed as a slightly more-than-hemispherical cage to fit the anterior part of the femoral head. The cage is connected to an anterior neck support. Four knifes are attached on the central arch of the cage. A drill guide cylinder is attached to the cage, thus allowing guide wire positioning as pre-operatively planned.</p> <p>Custom made devices were tested in 5 patients scheduled for total hip arthroplasty. The orthopedic surgeons reported the practical aspects of the use of the neck-jig device. The retrieved femoral heads were analyzed to assess the achieved drill place in mm deviation from the predefined location and orientation compared to the predefined orientation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The orthopedic surgeons rated the passive stability, full contact with neck portion of the jig and knife contact with femoral head, positive. There were no guide failures. The jig unique position and the number of steps required to put the guide in place were rated 1, while the complexity to put the guide into place was rated 1-2. In all five cases the guide wire was accurately positioned. Maximum angular deviation was 2.9° and maximum distance between insertion points was 2.1 mm.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Pilot testing of a custom made jig for use during SRA indicated that the device was (1) successfully applied and user friendly and (2) allowed for accurate guide wire placement according to the preoperative plan.</p

Structural reorganization of cylindrical nanoparticles triggered by polylactide stereocomplexation

YesCo-crystallization of polymers with different configurations/tacticities provides access to materials with enhanced performance. The stereocomplexation of isotactic poly(L-lactide) and poly(D-lactide) has led to improved properties compared with each homochiral material. Herein, we report the preparation of stereocomplex micelles from a mixture of poly(L-lactide)-b-poly(acrylic acid) and poly(D-lactide)-b-poly(acrylic acid) diblock copolymers in water via crystallization-driven self-assembly. During the formation of these stereocomplex micelles, an unexpected morphological transition results in the formation of dense crystalline spherical micelles rather than cylinders. Furthermore, mixture of cylinders with opposite homochirality in either THF/H2O mixtures or in pure water at 65 °C leads to disassembly into stereocomplexed spherical micelles. Similarly, a transition is also observed in a related PEO-b-PLLA/PEO-b-PDLA system, demonstrating wider applicability. This new mechanism for morphological reorganization, through competitive crystallization and stereocomplexation and without the requirement for an external stimulus, allows for new opportunities in controlled release and delivery applications.University of Warwick, Swiss National Science Foundation and the EPSRC. The Royal Society - an Industry Fellowship to A.P.D. The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/G004897/1) - funding to support postdoctoral fellowships for A.P.B. as well as funding for J.S. and M.A.D. through the Warwick Centre for Analytical Science (EP/F034210/1). The Science City Research Alliance and the HEFCE Strategic Development Fund - funding support. Some items of equipment that were used in this research were funded by Birmingham Science City, with support from Advantage West Midlands and part-funded by the European Regional Development Fund