Copula-type Estimators for Flexible Multivariate Density Modeling using Mixtures

Copulas are popular as models for multivariate dependence because they allow the marginal densities and the joint dependence to be modeled separately. However, they usually require that the transformation from uniform marginals to the marginals of the joint dependence structure is known. This can only be done for a restricted set of copulas, e.g. a normal copula. Our article introduces copula-type estimators for flexible multivariate density estimation which also allow the marginal densities to be modeled separately from the joint dependence, as in copula modeling, but overcomes the lack of flexibility of most popular copula estimators. An iterative scheme is proposed for estimating copula-type estimators and its usefulness is demonstrated through simulation and real examples. The joint dependence is is modeled by mixture of normals and mixture of normals factor analyzers models, and mixture of t and mixture of t factor analyzers models. We develop efficient Variational Bayes algorithms for fitting these in which model selection is performed automatically. Based on these mixture models, we construct four classes of copula-type densities which are far more flexible than current popular copula densities, and outperform them in simulation and several real data sets.Comment: 27 pages, 3 figure

Young people’s recall and perceptions of gambling advertising and intentions to gamble on sport

Background There has been an increased international policy focus on the factors that may contribute to, and prevent, the normalization of gambling for young people. However, there is still limited research, which investigates the role of advertising in shaping young people’s gambling attitudes and consumption intentions. Methods Mixed methods study of 111 young people aged 11–16 years recruited from community basketball stadiums in Victoria, Australia, between May and July 2018. Interviewer-assisted surveys investigated recall and awareness of sports betting brands, perceptions of promotional strategies, intention to gamble, and reasons for betting on particular sports. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and χ2 tests. Thematic analyses were used to interpret qualitative responses. Results Young people had high recall and awareness of advertising, with most able to name at least one betting brand (n = 90, 81.1%), and many demonstrating a high awareness of the distinct characteristics (such as colors and appeal strategies) of different brands. A fifth of young people (n = 25, 22.5%) expressed intentions to gamble at 18 years, with boys significantly more likely than girls to state they would gamble (χ2 = 10.90, p = .001). Young people perceived that advertising strategies associated with inducement promotions would be the most influential in encouraging individuals to gamble. While many young people took promotions at face value, there was evidence that some were able to critically engage with and challenge the messages within marketing. Discussion and conclusions Current regulatory structures appear to be ineffective in limiting young people’s recall and awareness of gambling advertising. Lessons from tobacco control support the application of precautionary approaches as a more effective way to limit young people’s development of positive gambling attitudes and behaviors

Protecting children and young people from contemporary marketing for gambling

Around the world, children are being exposed to intensive marketing for gambling products. This normalizes perceptions that gambling is essentially a harmless form of entertainment, despite mounting evidence of the harms it causes. Young people and their parents are supportive of strategies to protect children from being exposed to gambling marketing. Yet existing regulatory efforts are inconsistent and inadequate, and have not protected children from exposure to the many forms of marketing now being developed and exploited by the gambling industry. We outline existing knowledge about strategies used by the gambling industry to market its products, with a specific focus on the potential impact of gambling marketing on young people. We provide a definition of gambling marketing and outline the different forms of promotion that are currently used to market gambling, current regulatory responses, and the impact of marketing on children and young people. We then argue that a comprehensive public health approach to gambling is urgently required, which must include effective action to limit the influence of marketing for gambling products, while recognizing that it is never possible to insulate children entirely from their reach

The impact of mental health recovery narratives on recipients experiencing mental health problems: Qualitative analysis and change model.

BACKGROUND: Mental health recovery narratives are stories of recovery from mental health problems. Narratives may impact in helpful and harmful ways on those who receive them. The objective of this paper is to develop a change model identifying the range of possible impacts and how they occur. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with adults with experience of mental health problems and recovery (n = 77). Participants were asked to share a mental health recovery narrative and to describe the impact of other people's recovery narratives on their own recovery. A change model was generated through iterative thematic analysis of transcripts. RESULTS: Change is initiated when a recipient develops a connection to a narrator or to the events descripted in their narrative. Change is mediated by the recipient recognising experiences shared with the narrator, noticing the achievements or difficulties of the narrator, learning how recovery happens, or experiencing emotional release. Helpful outcomes of receiving recovery narratives are connectedness, validation, hope, empowerment, appreciation, reference shift and stigma reduction. Harmful outcomes are a sense of inadequacy, disconnection, pessimism and burden. Impact is positively moderated by the perceived authenticity of the narrative, and can be reduced if the recipient is experiencing a crisis. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that incorporate the use of recovery narratives, such as peer support, anti-stigma campaigns and bibliotherapy, can use the change model to maximise benefit and minimise harms from narratives. Interventions should incorporate a diverse range of narratives available through different mediums to enable a range of recipients to connect with and benefit from this material. Service providers using recovery narratives should preserve authenticity so as to maximise impact, for example by avoiding excessive editing

Young people’s awareness of the timing and placement of gambling advertising on traditional and social media platforms: a study of 11–16-year-olds in Australia

Background Research has demonstrated that the promotion of gambling, particularly within sport, may have a significant impact on positively shaping young people’s attitudes towards gambling. While some governments have implemented restrictions to limit young people’s exposure to gambling advertising, few studies have investigated where young people recall seeing gambling advertising, and whether they perceive that advertising restrictions have gone far enough in reducing exposure to these promotions. Method Mixed methods, interviewer-assisted surveys were conducted with n = 111 young people aged 11–16 years, who were self-reported fans of basketball in Victoria, Australia. Interviews were conducted at basketball stadiums between May and July 2018. The study assessed media viewing patterns; recall and awareness of the timing, placement, and content of gambling advertising; the impact of gambling advertising restrictions; and attitudes towards sporting organisations’ roles in the promotion of gambling. Results The majority of young people recalled seeing gambling advertising on television (n = 101, 91.0%), with most recalling advertising within sporting matches or games (n = 79, 71.2%). Most young people recalled seeing gambling advertising in the early evening before 8:30 pm (n = 75, 67.6%). Just over half of young people described seeing gambling advertisements on social media (n = 61, 55.0%), and over a third (n = 40, 36.0%) recalled gambling advertising on YouTube, predominantly before watching sporting or gaming videos. The majority stated that they continued to watch sport after 8:30 pm (n = 93, 83.7%), which is when restrictions on advertising in live sport in Australia end. The majority (n = 88, 79.3%) stated that there were too many gambling advertisements in sport. Three quarters believed that sporting codes should do more to prevent young people from being exposed to advertising for gambling in sport (n = 84, 75.7%). Conclusions There is now a clear body evidence that current regulatory systems for gambling advertising are ineffective, with further restrictions urgently needed across a range of media channels to prevent exposure to promotions that may encourage young people’s interest and involvement in gambling

‘It's a tradition to go down to the pokies on your 18th birthday’ – the normalisation of gambling for young women in Australia

Objective: To understand the range of factors that may influence the normalisation of gambling for young women in Victoria, Australia. Methods: In-depth qualitative telephone interviews with 45 women aged 18–34 years. Results: Young women were exposed to gambling environments and some were gambling from an early age. Family members were the key facilitators of these activities. Once reaching the legal age of gambling, peers and boyfriends were instrumental in young women’s gambling practices. Women attributed the normalisation of gambling to excessive marketing, feminised gambling environments, and the widespread availability of gambling in the community. Conclusions: This study found several factors that influenced and encouraged young women to gamble, such as the feminisation of gambling products and environments, and determined that gambling is becoming a socio-culturally accepted activity for young women. Implications for public health: Researchers and policymakers should be increasingly focused on how different forms of gambling may be normalised for young women. Attention should be given to how young women may become a target market for the gambling industry, and how to implement strategies aimed at preventing any future potential harm posed by these industries and their marketing tactics and products

Factors that influence children's gambling attitudes and consumption intentions: Lessons for gambling harm prevention research, policies and advocacy strategies

Background: Harmful gambling is a public health issue that affects not only adults but also children. With the development of a range of new gambling products, and the marketing for these products, children are potentially exposed to gambling more than ever before. While there have been many calls to develop strategies which protect children from harmful gambling products, very little is known about the factors that may influence children's attitudes towards these products. This study aimed to explore children's gambling attitudes and consumption intentions and the range of consumer socialisation factors that may influence these attitudes and behaviours. Methods: Children aged 8 to 16 years old (n = 48) were interviewed in Melbourne, Australia. A semi-structured interview format included activities with children and open-ended questions. We explored children's perceptions of the popularity of different gambling products, their current engagement with gambling, and their future gambling consumption intentions. We used thematic analysis to explore children's narratives with a focus on the range of socialising factors that may shape children's gambling attitudes and perceptions. Results: Three key themes emerged from the data. First, children's perceptions of the popularity of different products were shaped by what they had seen or heard about these products, whether through family activities, the media (and in particular marketing) of gambling products, and/or the alignment of gambling products with sport. Second, children's gambling behaviours were influenced by family members and culturally valued events. Third, many children indicated consumption intentions towards sports betting. This was due to four key factors: (1) the alignment of gambling with culturally valued activities; (2) their perceived knowledge about sport; (3) the marketing and advertising of gambling products (and in particular sports betting); and (4) the influence of friends and family. Conclusions: This study indicates that there is a range of socialisation factors, particularly family and the media (predominantly via marketing), which may be positively shaping children's gambling attitudes, behaviours and consumption intentions. There is a need for governments to develop effective policies and regulations to reduce children's exposure to gambling products and ensure they are protected from the harms associated with gambling. © 2017 The Author(s)

Attitudes towards community gambling venues and support for regulatory reform: An online panel study of residents in New South Wales, Australia

Background: Harmful gambling has been identified as an important public health issue that affects individuals, families and the broader community. One gambling product, electronic gambling machines (EGMs), has been associated with significant gambling harm in Australia. There has been limited research that has explored community perceptions of EGMs and attitudes towards reform. This study, conducted in NSW, Australia, aimed to explore community use of EGM venues (clubs and hotels containing EGMs), attitudes towards EGMs and whether the use of these venues influenced attitudes towards EGM reform. Methods: An online survey was conducted with 500 adults aged 16 years and over, representative of the population for age and gender. Discrete choice and open-ended questions were used to gather data on gambling behaviours, use of and attitudes towards EGMs and EGM venues and support for gambling harm reduction measures. Results: Three quarters of participants had visited an EGM venue in the previous year. Participants who had attended such venues were significantly more likely to use EGMs at least once per month. Participants attended EGM venues for a range of reasons including use of non-gambling facilities such as restaurants, the social aspects of the venue and ease of access to the venue. Some participants also attended EGM venues specifically for the gambling facilities. Most participants identified some negative impacts of EGMs for local communities and were supportive of measures to reduce the number of EGMs and prevent children's exposure to EGMs in such venues. Conclusions: This study shows a high level of support for EGM reform amongst both individuals who attend EGM venues and also those who do not. There is potential for government to further regulate EGMs and the environments where they are located