Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand forecasts

This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand forecasting experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the forecasts. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. Forecasting the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand forecasts ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range forecasts are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the forecasts are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the forecasting. Modification of the forecasting procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year forecasting

Impact of Insulin Treatment on the Effect of Eplerenone:Insights From the EMPHASIS-HF Trial

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and insulin-treated diabetes have a high risk of cardiovascular complications. Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists may mitigate this risk. We aim to explore the effect of eplerenone on cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in HFrEF patients with diabetes, including those treated with insulin in the EMPHASIS-HF trial (Eplerenone in Patients with Systolic Heart Failure and Mild Symptoms). METHODS: The primary outcome was the composite of heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death. Cox models with treatment-by-diabetes subgroup interaction terms were used. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 21 (10-33) months. Of the 2737 patients included, 623 (23%) had non-insulin-treated diabetes, 236 (9%) had insulin-treated diabetes and 1878 did not have diabetes. Patients with insulin-treated diabetes were younger, more often women, with higher body mass index, waist circumference, more frequent ischemic heart failure cause, impaired kidney function, and longer diabetes duration. Compared with patients without diabetes, those with insulintreated diabetes had a 2-fold higher risk of having a primary outcome event. The hazard ratio (95% CI) for the effect of eplerenone, compared with placebo, on the primary outcome was 0.31 (0.19-0.50) in insulin-treated diabetes, 0.69 (0.500.93) in non-insulin-treated diabetes, and 0.72 (0.58-0.88) in patients without diabetes; interaction P=0.007. The annualized number needed-to-treat-to-benefit with regards to the primary outcome was 3 (95% CI, 3-4) in patients with insulin-treated diabetes, 16 (13-19) in patients with diabetes not receiving insulin, and 26 (24-28) in patients without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with insulin-treated diabetes experienced a greater benefit from eplerenone than those with diabetes not treated with insulin and people without diabetes

Renal function stratified dose comparisons of eplerenone versus placebo in the EMPHASIS-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Current heart failure guidelines recommend target eplerenone dose of 50 mg/day. We have examined the effect of different eplerenone doses based on pre-specified renal function stratification in the Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure (EMPHASIS-HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In EMPHASIS-HF, the target dose of eplerenone/placebo was stratified at randomization according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR): 50 mg/day if eGFR ≥ 50 mL/min/1.73 m2 and ≤ 25 mg/day if eGFR 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2 . Patients remained within these dose ranges during the trial (as per stratification). The primary outcome was a composite of heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular mortality. Eplerenone was superior to placebo within each respective eGFR stratum [eplerenone vs. placebo in the eGFR ≥ 50 mL/min/1.73 m2 stratum: hazard ratio (HR) 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-0.74; and eplerenone vs. placebo in the eGFR 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2 stratum: HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.49-0.78; Pinteraction  = 0.89]. Despite receiving lower eplerenone doses, patients in the eGFR 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2 stratum more often had hyperkalaemia, renal failure events, and drug discontinuation. CONCLUSION: In EMPHASIS-HF the eplerenone dose was stratified according to renal function and the treatment effect was not influenced by renal function: 25 mg/day in patients with eGFR 30-49 mL/min/1.73 m2 was as effective as 50 mg/day in patients with eGFR > =50 mL/min/1.73 m2 . However, patients with impaired renal function experienced more adverse events, despite reveiving lower eplerenone doses. Current guidelines do not recommend tailoring the dose of eplereone according to renal function but the current data suggest they should

Reliability of dynamic causal modelling of resting‐state magnetoencephalography

This study assesses the reliability of resting‐state dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of magnetoencephalography (MEG) under conductance‐based canonical microcircuit models, in terms of both posterior parameter estimates and model evidence. We use resting‐state MEG data from two sessions, acquired 2 weeks apart, from a cohort with high between‐subject variance arising from Alzheimer's disease. Our focus is not on the effect of disease, but on the reliability of the methods (as within‐subject between‐session agreement), which is crucial for future studies of disease progression and drug intervention. To assess the reliability of first‐level DCMs, we compare model evidence associated with the covariance among subject‐specific free energies (i.e., the ‘quality’ of the models) with versus without interclass correlations. We then used parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) to investigate the differences between the inferred DCM parameter probability distributions at the between subject level. Specifically, we examined the evidence for or against parameter differences (i) within‐subject, within‐session, and between‐epochs; (ii) within‐subject between‐session; and (iii) within‐site between‐subjects, accommodating the conditional dependency among parameter estimates. We show that for data acquired close in time, and under similar circumstances, more than 95% of inferred DCM parameters are unlikely to differ, speaking to mutual predictability over sessions. Using PEB, we show a reciprocal relationship between a conventional definition of ‘reliability’ and the conditional dependency among inferred model parameters. Our analyses confirm the reliability and reproducibility of the conductance‐based DCMs for resting‐state neurophysiological data. In this respect, the implicit generative modelling is suitable for interventional and longitudinal studies of neurological and psychiatric disorders

Impact of eplerenone on major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with systolic heart failure according to baseline heart rate.

BACKGROUND: Increased resting heart rate is a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) have been shown to improve cardiac sympathetic nerve activity, reduce heart rate and attenuate left ventricular remodelling. Whether or not the beneficial effects of MRA are affected by heart rate in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) is unclear. METHODS: We undertook a secondary analysis of data from the Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure study to assess if clinical outcomes, as well as the efficacy of eplerenone, varied according to heart rate at baseline. RESULTS: High resting heart rate of 80 bpm and above predisposed patients to greater risk of all outcomes in the trial, regardless of treatment allocation. The beneficial effects of eplerenone were observed across all categories of heart rate. Eplerenone reduced the risk of primary endpoint, the composite of cardiovascular death and hospitalisation for heart failure, by 30% (aHR 0.70; 95% CI 0.54-0.91) in subjects with heart rate ≥ 80 bpm, and by 48% (aHR 0.52; 95% CI 0.33-0.81) in subjects with heart rate ≤ 60 bpm. Eplerenone also reduced the risks of hospitalisation for heart failure, cardiovascular deaths and all-cause deaths independently of baseline heart rate. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline heart rate appears to be an important predictor of major clinical outcome events in patients with HFREF, as has been previously reported. The benefits of eplerenone were preserved across all categories of baseline heart rate, without observed heterogeneity in the responses

Introduction of a novel magnetic resonance imaging-based scoring system for assessing disease activity in children with juvenile dermatomyositis

Objectives: We aimed to develop and assess the reliability of a novel MRI-based scoring system for reporting the severity of MRI findings in children with suspected JDM. Methods: Nine consultant paediatric radiologists independently assessed and scored 40 axial and 30 coronal thigh MR images of children with suspected JDM on two occasions using the juvenile dermatomyositis magnetic resonance Imaging Score (JIS). JIS was calculated for both reads for each plane and each limb, with possible scores ranging from 0 (normal) to 100 (severe). Inter- and intraobserver agreement was calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and two- and one-way random effects models, respectively. Bland-Altman plots of the difference in JIS against the average JIS were also produced for each rater. Results: Overall, the interobserver reliability and agreement was good-for axial images, JIS ranged from 46.8 to 61.0 [ICC = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.92)] for the left limb and 47.9-61.4 [ICC = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.92)] for the right limb. For coronal images, JIS ranged from 56.7 to 65.1 [ICC = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.95)] for the left limb and 55.7 to 66.8 [ICC = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.94)] for the right limb. The intraobserver reliability and agreement was good, with ICC ranging from 0.90 to 0.94. Conclusion: JIS is a semi-objective scoring system with potential to serve as a reliable biomarker of disease severity and response to therapeutic interventions in children with JDM

Interdomain Interactions Control Ca2+-Dependent Potentiation in the Cation Channel TRPV4

Several Ca2+-permeable channels, including the non-selective cation channel TRPV4, are subject to Ca2+-dependent facilitation. Although it has been clearly demonstrated in functional experiments that calmodulin (CaM) binding to intracellular domains of TRP channels is involved in this process, the molecular mechanism remains elusive. In this study, we provide experimental evidence for a comprehensive molecular model that explains Ca2+-dependent facilitation of TRPV4. In the resting state, an intracellular domain from the channel N terminus forms an autoinhibitory complex with a C-terminal domain that includes a high-affinity CaM binding site. CaM binding, secondary to rises in intracellular Ca2+, displaces the N-terminal domain which may then form a homologous interaction with an identical domain from a second subunit. This represents a novel potentiation mechanism that may also be relevant in other Ca2+-permeable channels

Filovirus RefSeq Entries: Evaluation and Selection of Filovirus Type Variants, Type Sequences, and Names

Sequence determination of complete or coding-complete genomes of viruses is becoming common practice for supporting the work of epidemiologists, ecologists, virologists, and taxonomists. Sequencing duration and costs are rapidly decreasing, sequencing hardware is under modification for use by non-experts, and software is constantly being improved to simplify sequence data management and analysis. Thus, analysis of virus disease outbreaks on the molecular level is now feasible, including characterization of the evolution of individual virus populations in single patients over time. The increasing accumulation of sequencing data creates a management problem for the curators of commonly used sequence databases and an entry retrieval problem for end users. Therefore, utilizing the data to their fullest potential will require setting nomenclature and annotation standards for virus isolates and associated genomic sequences. The National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s) RefSeq is a non-redundant, curated database for reference (or type) nucleotide sequence records that supplies source data to numerous other databases. Building on recently proposed templates for filovirus variant naming [ ()////-], we report consensus decisions from a majority of past and currently active filovirus experts on the eight filovirus type variants and isolates to be represented in RefSeq, their final designations, and their associated sequences

Baseline characteristics of patients in the reduction of events with darbepoetin alfa in heart failure trial (RED-HF)

<p>Aims: This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients in the Reduction of Events with Darbepoetin alfa in Heart Failure trial (RED-HF) which is testing the hypothesis that anaemia correction with darbepoetin alfa will reduce the composite endpoint of death from any cause or hospital admission for worsening heart failure, and improve other outcomes.</p> <p>Methods and results: Key demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings, along with baseline treatment, are reported and compared with those of patients in other recent clinical trials in heart failure. Compared with other recent trials, RED-HF enrolled more elderly [mean age 70 (SD 11.4) years], female (41%), and black (9%) patients. RED-HF patients more often had diabetes (46%) and renal impairment (72% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Patients in RED-HF had heart failure of longer duration [5.3 (5.4) years], worse NYHA class (35% II, 63% III, and 2% IV), and more signs of congestion. Mean EF was 30% (6.8%). RED-HF patients were well treated at randomization, and pharmacological therapy at baseline was broadly similar to that of other recent trials, taking account of study-specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) haemoglobin at baseline was 112 (106–117) g/L.</p> <p>Conclusion: The anaemic patients enrolled in RED-HF were older, moderately to markedly symptomatic, and had extensive co-morbidity.</p&gt