Scavenging patterns of generalist predators in forested areas: the potential implications of increase in carrion availability on a threatened capercaillie population

The increases in ungulate populations and hunting bags throughout Europe and North America have resulted in higher carcass numbers available for mesocarnivore species in temperate and boreal forests. The increase in food resources can sustain denser predator populations, potentially affecting prey species such as the threatened western capercaillie Tetrao urogallus. We investigated the ungulate population trends in recent decades and the carrion use by facultative scavengers in areas of the Pyrenees occupied by capercaillie to assess the potential effects on predation of nests and adult birds, and on its population trend. We found a significant increase in the number of ungulates harvested during the period of sharp capercaillie population decline. Carrion was provided experimentally in forested areas occupied by capercaillie showing that remains were mainly consumed by red fox Vulpes vulpes, followed by wild boar Sus scrofa and marten species (Martes sp.). Season (cold or warm) was the most important factor determining scavenging activity in most species. Main predators of capercaillie nests and adults were martens and red fox, with no predation by wild boar. Our data show that main predators of capercaillie are the same species that mainly consume carrion, especially in winter, and that plentiful carrion resources could maintain higher populations of these species, potentially increasing predation pressure on the capercaillie population. This study shows that managing carrion arising from hunting activity in areas of capercaillie distribution is a necessary management action to reduce the available carrion biomass and so reduce the impact of mesocarnivores on capercaillie conservation.We acknowledge the forestry rangers of Generalitat de Catalunya for field work. The comments of two anonymous reviewers improved the previous version. This work was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (RTI2018-099609-B-C22) and the Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge

Protecting the underscreened women in developed countries: the value of HPV test

Background: Poor attendance to cervical cancer (CC) screening is a major risk factor for CC. Efforts to capture underscreened women are considerable and once women agree to participate, the provision of longitudinal validity of the screening test is of paramount relevance. We evaluate the addition of high risk HPV test (HPV) to cervical cytology as a primary screening test among underscreened women in the longitudinal prediction of intraepithelial lesions grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). Methods: Women were included in the study if they were older than 39 years and with no evidence of cervical cytology in the previous five years within the Public Primary Health Care System in Catalonia (Spain). 1,832 underscreened women from eight public primary health areas were identified during 2007-2008 and followed-up for over three years to estimate longitudinal detection of CIN2+. Accuracy of each screening test and the combination of both to detect CIN2+ was estimated. The risk of developing CIN2+ lesions according to histology data by cytology and HPV test results at baseline was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: At baseline, 6.7% of participants were HPV positive, 2.2% had an abnormal cytology and 1.3% had both tests positive. At the end of follow-up, 18 out of 767 (2.3%) underscreened women had a CIN2+, two of which were invasive CC. The three-year longitudinal sensitivity and specificity estimates to detect CIN2+ were 90.5% and 93.0% for HPV test and 38.2% and 97.8% for cytology. The negative predictive value was >99.0% for each test. No additional gains in validity parameters of HPV test were observed when adding cytology as co-test. The referral to colposcopy was higher for HPV but generated 53% higher detection of CIN2+ compared to cytology. Conclusions: Underscreened women had high burden of cervical disease. Primary HPV screening followed by cytology triage could be the optimal strategy to identify CIN2+ leading to longer and safe screen intervals

Protecting the underscreened women in developed countries: the value of HPV test

Background: Poor attendance to cervical cancer (CC) screening is a major risk factor for CC. Efforts to capture underscreened women are considerable and once women agree to participate, the provision of longitudinal validity of the screening test is of paramount relevance. We evaluate the addition of high risk HPV test (HPV) to cervical cytology as a primary screening test among underscreened women in the longitudinal prediction of intraepithelial lesions grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). Methods: Women were included in the study if they were older than 39 years and with no evidence of cervical cytology in the previous five years within the Public Primary Health Care System in Catalonia (Spain). 1,832 underscreened women from eight public primary health areas were identified during 2007-2008 and followed-up for over three years to estimate longitudinal detection of CIN2+. Accuracy of each screening test and the combination of both to detect CIN2+ was estimated. The risk of developing CIN2+ lesions according to histology data by cytology and HPV test results at baseline was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: At baseline, 6.7% of participants were HPV positive, 2.2% had an abnormal cytology and 1.3% had both tests positive. At the end of follow-up, 18 out of 767 (2.3%) underscreened women had a CIN2+, two of which were invasive CC. The three-year longitudinal sensitivity and specificity estimates to detect CIN2+ were 90.5% and 93.0% for HPV test and 38.2% and 97.8% for cytology. The negative predictive value was >99.0% for each test. No additional gains in validity parameters of HPV test were observed when adding cytology as co-test. The referral to colposcopy was higher for HPV but generated 53% higher detection of CIN2+ compared to cytology. Conclusions: Underscreened women had high burden of cervical disease. Primary HPV screening followed by cytology triage could be the optimal strategy to identify CIN2+ leading to longer and safe screen intervals