Methods to select areas to survey for biological control agents: An example based on growth in relation to temperature and distribution of the weed Conyza bonariensis

A novel approach for selecting areas to survey for biological control agents, incorporating climate and a hypothesised biological control agent, is demonstrated using the target weed Conyza bonariensis (Asteraceae). This weed has become important in Australian cropping regions due to its persistence and herbicide resistance, and it is also increasingly an environmental weed. Both are reasons for the investigation of biological control options. We developed a species niche model for C. bonariensis in CLIMEX based on parameters informed by plant growth and distribution of the species in the Americas. A hypothetical biological control agent (HBCA-cold) was proposed that has its ideal growth range 5 °C below that of the weed, so as to favour development of the agent over that of the weed in parts of Australia. The southern part of the weed's native distribution in Argentina, Chile and the highlands of Ecuador and Columbia were identified as the most suitable areas for surveys that take into account both the climate suitable for the HBCA-cold and the target regions in Australia. This was compared to a model (HBCA-hot) that had an ideal growth range 5 °C above that of the weed, but which identified potential areas for surveys in South America that were not climatically aligned with the main regions of the weed's economic impact in Australia. This species distribution modelling method allows for prioritisation of search areas for biological control agents in the case of widespread target species such as C. bonariensis. © 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc

Potential distribution of Rapistrum rugosum (turnip weed)

Rapistrum rugosum (L.) All. (Brassicaceae) is a widely distributed weed of annual crops, especially pulses, in southern Australia. With the south-west of Western Australia predicted to become drier and hotter due to climate change, the development of predictive models to determine future weed threats to the agricultural industry is essential for early intervention and to enable adaptation measures to be put in place. We measured the plant’s growth in relation to temperature and used this information along with soil moisture and phenology information based on the known distribution to derive growth parameters to develop a CLIMEX model. Under a warming climateR. rugosum is projected to increase its distribution in the northern hemisphere, but to decrease its distribution in Australia

Potential Distribution of the Australian Native Chloris truncata Based on Modelling Both the Successful and Failed Global Introductions

Our aim was to model the current and future potential global distribution of Chloris truncata (windmill grass) based on the plant’s biology, soil requirements and colonisation success. The growth response of C. truncata to constant temperatures and soil moisture levels were measured and estimated respectively, to develop parameters for a CLIMEX bioclimatic model of potential distribution. The native distribution in eastern Australia and naturalised distribution in Western Australia was also used to inform the model. Associations with soil types were assessed within the suitable bioclimatic region in Australia. The global projection of the model was tested against the distribution of soil types and the known successful and failed global introductions. The verified model was then projected to future conditions due to climate change. Optimal temperature for plant development was 28°C and the plant required 970 degree-days above a threshold of 10°C. Early collection records indicate that the species is native to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The plant has been introduced elsewhere in Australia and throughout the world as a wool contaminant and as a potential pasture species, but some of the recorded establishments have failed to persist. The CLIMEX model projected to the world reflected effectively both the successful and failed distributions. The inclusion of soil associations improved the explanation of the observed distribution in Australia, but did not improve the ability to determine the potential distribution elsewhere, due to lack of similarity of soil types between continents. The addition of a climate change projection showed decreased suitability for this species in Australia, but increased suitability for other parts of the world, including regions where the plant previously failed to establish

Phase 2 trial of montelukast for prevention of pain in sickle cell disease.

Cysteinyl leukotrienes (CysLTs) are lipid mediators of inflammation. In patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), levels of CysLTs are increased compared with controls and associated with a higher rate of hospitalization for pain. We tested the hypothesis that administration of the CysLT receptor antagonist montelukast would improve SCD-related comorbidities, including pain, in adolescents and adults with SCD. In a phase 2 randomized trial, we administered montelukast or placebo for 8 weeks. The primary outcome measure was a >30% reduction in soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (sVCAM), a marker of vascular injury. Secondary outcome measures were reduction in daily pain, improvement in pulmonary function, and improvement in microvascular blood flow, as measured by laser Doppler velocimetry. Forty-two participants with SCD were randomized to receive montelukast or placebo for 8 weeks. We found no difference between the montelukast and placebo groups with regard to the levels of sVCAM, reported pain, pulmonary function, or microvascular blood flow. Although montelukast is an effective treatment for asthma, we did not find benefit for SCD-related outcomes. This clinical trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01960413

Controls on Last Glacial Maximum ice extent in the Weddell Sea embayment, Antarctica

The Weddell Sea sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is hypothesized to have made a significant contribution to sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a numerical flowline model we investigate the controls on grounding line motion across the eastern Weddell Sea and compare our results with field data relating to past ice extent. Specifically, we investigate the influence of changes in ice temperature, accumulation, sea level, ice shelf basal melt, and ice shelf buttressing on the dynamics of the Foundation Ice Stream. We find that ice shelf basal melt plays an important role in controlling grounding line advance, while a reduction in ice shelf buttressing is found to be necessary for grounding line retreat. There are two stable positions for the grounding line under glacial conditions: at the northern margin of Berkner Island and at the continental shelf break. Global mean sea-level contributions associated with these two scenarios are ~50 mm and ~130 mm, respectively. Comparing model results with field evidence from the Pensacola Mountains and the Shackleton Range, we find it unlikely that ice was grounded at the continental shelf break for a prolonged period during the last glacial cycle. However, we cannot rule out a brief advance to this position or a scenario in which the grounding line retreated behind present during deglaciation and has since re-advanced. Better constraints on past ice sheet and ice shelf geometry, ocean temperature, and ocean circulation are needed to reconstruct more robustly past behavior of the Foundation Ice Stream

Herbicide-Resistant Weed Seeds Contaminate Grain Sown in the Western Australian Grainbelt

Preventing the introduction of weeds into the farming system through sowing of clean seeds is an essential component of weed management. The weed seed contamination of cleaned grain and herbicide resistance levels of the recovered weed seeds were examined in a study conducted across 74 farms in the Western Australian grainbelt. Most farmers grew and conserved their own crop seed. The majority of cleaned samples had some level of seed contamination from 11 foreign weed and volunteer crop species, with an average of 62 seeds 10 kg−1 grain, substantially higher than the 28 seeds 10 kg−1 grain expected by farmers. The most common weed contaminants across all samples were rigid ryegrass, wild radish, brome, and wild oat.When categorized by crop type, rigid ryegrass was the most frequent contaminant of cereal crops (barley and wheat), however wild radish was the most frequent contaminant of lupin crops. Uncleaned crop seed samples had almost 25 times more contamination than cleaned crop seed. Herbicide resistance was highly prevalent within rigid ryegrass populations recovered from cleaned grain except for glyphosate, which controlled all populations tested. Some resistance was also found in wild radish and wild oat populations; however, brome was susceptible to fluazifop. This study has shown that farmers are unknowingly introducing weed seeds into their farming systems during crop seeding, many of which have herbicide resistance

Linking environmental variables with regional-scale variability in ecological structure and standing stock of carbon within UK kelp forests

Kelp forests represent some of the most productive and diverse habitats on Earth. Understanding drivers of ecological patterns at large spatial scales is critical for effective management and conservation of marine habitats. We surveyed kelp forests dominated by Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie 1884 across 9° latitude and \u3e1000 km of coastline and measured a number of physical parameters at multiple scales to link ecological structure and standing stock of carbon with environmental variables. Kelp density, biomass, morphology and age were generally greater in exposed sites within regions, highlighting the importance of wave exposure in structuring L. hyperborea populations. At the regional scale, wave-exposed kelp canopies in the cooler regions (the north and west of Scotland) were greater in biomass, height and age than in warmer regions (southwest Wales and England). The range and maximal values of estimated standing stock of carbon contained within kelp forests was greater than in historical studies, suggesting that this ecosystem property may have been previously undervalued. Kelp canopy density was positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and fine-scale water motion, whereas kelp canopy biomass and the standing stock of carbon were positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and light levels and negatively correlated with temperature. As light availability and summer temperature were important drivers of kelp forest biomass, effective management of human activities that may affect coastal water quality is necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning, while increased temperatures related to anthropogenic climate change may impact the structure of kelp forests and the ecosystem services they provide

Ecological performance differs between range centre and trailing edge populations of a cold-water kelp:implications for estimating net primary productivity

Kelp forests are extensive, widely distributed and highly productive. However, despite their importance, reliable estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) are currently unknown for most species and regions. In particular, how performance and subsequent NPP change throughout a species range is lacking. Here, we attempted to resolve this by examining growth and performance of the boreal kelp, Laminaria digitata, from range centre and trailing edge regions in the United Kingdom. During the peak growth season (March/April), range-centre individuals were up to three times heavier and accumulated biomass twice as fast as their trailing-edge counterparts. This was not apparent during the reduced growth season (August/September), when populations within both regions had similar biomass profiles. In total, annual NPP estimates were considerably lower for trailing-edge (181±34 g C m−2 year−1) compared to range-centre (344±33 g C m−2 year−1) populations. Our first-order UK estimates of total standing stock and NPP for L. digitata suggest this species makes a significant contribution to coastal carbon cycling. Further work determining the ultimate fate of this organic matter is needed to understand the overall contribution of kelp populations to regional and global carbon cycles. Nevertheless, we highlight the need for large-scale sampling across multiple populations and latitudes to accurately evaluate kelp species’ contributions to coastal carbon cycling

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete periods of anomalously warm water—have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.publishedVersio