A view from above : changing seas, seabirds and food sources

In this review we summarize what is known about mechanisms by which climate change may be affecting the populations of seabirds around the UK. Breeding success and adult survival are the key factors affecting changes in seabird populations, and food intake is implicated as a major determinant of both. The diet of most UK seabird species is almost exclusively sandeels, small clupeoid fish or zooplankton and it is clear that the marine pelagic food web is the key ecological system determining food supply. Hence, we develop the review by first considering how climate changes may affect primary production, and then examine how this propagates through the food web to zooplankton and fish culminating in fluctuations in seabird numbers. A trend of increasing numbers of many seabird species since 1970, particularly puffins, guillemots and razorbills, appears to have been reversed since 2000. The proximate cause of the recent declines seems to be a succession of 5 years of low breeding success for a range of species due to a shortage of food, especially sandeels. However, the connection with climate change remains uncertain, though there are indications that declines in the productivity of sandeel populations may be linked in some complex way to warming sea temperatures. The main conclusion is that no part of the marine food web, including fisheries, can be considered in isolation when trying to understand and predict the consequences of climate change for seabirds. Impacts can be expected in all parts of the system, and all parts of the system are interconnected

Decoupling Growth from Growth-dependent Planning Paradigms: Contesting Prevailing Urban Renewal Futures in Sydney, Australia

With the population of Sydney expected to reach 7 million+ in the next 20 years, current strategic planning policy is firmly growth oriented in its aims, and growth dependent in its settings, with a key focus on promoting higher density redevelopment around rail stations through value uplift. Using the Sydenham-to-Bankstown Corridor as our case study, this paper engages with the contradictions underpinning current templates for market-driven urban renewal. Questioning models privileging a financialised, hypertrophic reconfiguration of existing neighbourhoods, we examine the business of densification and its spatial manifestation(s) to explore potential frameworks for greater inclusivity in both the process, and outcomes, of suburban growth. 摘要： 随着悉尼人口在未来20年内预计将达到700万以上，目前的战略规划政策的目标是坚定地以增长为导向，并在其环境中依赖增长，重点是通过价值提升促进火车站周围更高密度的再开发. 本文以西德纳姆-班克斯敦走廊为例，探讨了当前市场驱动的城市更新模式所存在的矛盾. 在质疑现有街区金融化、过度重组的模式时，我们研究了密集化的业务及其空间表现形式，以探索郊区发展过程和结果中更大包容性的潜在框架

Redeveloping the compact city: the challenges of strata collective sales

Purpose: High-density development requires large land parcels, but fragmented land ownership can impede redevelopment. While earlier compact city development in Sydney occurred on large-scale brownfield sites, redeveloping and re-amalgamating older strata-titled properties is now integral to further densification. The purpose of this study is to examine collective sales activity in one Sydney suburb where multiple strata-titled redevelopments and re-amalgamations have been attempted. The authors explore how owners navigate the process of selling collectively, focusing on their experience of legislation introduced to facilitate this process, the Strata Schemes Development Act 2015 [New South Wales (NSW)]. Design/methodology/approach: By reviewing sales listings, development applications and media coverage, and interviewing owners, lawyers and estate agents, the authors map out collective sale activity in a case study area in Sydney’s northwest. Findings: Strata collective sales are slow and difficult to complete, even when planning and market drivers align. Owners find the Strata Scheme Development Act 2015 (NSW) difficult to navigate and it has not prevented strategic blocking attempts by competing developers. The long timelines required to organise collective sales can result in failure if the market shifts in the interim. Nonetheless, owners remain interested in selling collectively. Originality/value: This case study is important for understanding the barriers to redevelopment to achieve a more compact city. It highlights lessons for other jurisdictions considering similar legislative changes. It also suggests that legislative change alone is insufficient to resolve the planning challenges created by hyper-fragmentation of land through strata-title development

A Statistical Social Network Model for Consumption Data in Food Webs

We adapt existing statistical modeling techniques for social networks to study consumption data observed in trophic food webs. These data describe the feeding volume (non-negative) among organisms grouped into nodes, called trophic species, that form the food web. Model complexity arises due to the extensive amount of zeros in the data, as each node in the web is predator/prey to only a small number of other trophic species. Many of the zeros are regarded as structural (non-random) in the context of feeding behavior. The presence of basal prey and top predator nodes (those who never consume and those who are never consumed, with probability 1) creates additional complexity to the statistical modeling. We develop a special statistical social network model to account for such network features. The model is applied to two empirical food webs; focus is on the web for which the population size of seals is of concern to various commercial fisheries.Comment: On 2013-09-05, a revised version entitled "A Statistical Social Network Model for Consumption Data in Trophic Food Webs" was accepted for publication in the upcoming Special Issue "Statistical Methods for Ecology" in the journal Statistical Methodolog

Carbon dioxide and ocean acidification observations in UK waters. Synthesis report with a focus on 2010–2015

Key messages: 1.1 The process of ocean acidification is now relatively well-documented at the global scale as a long-term trend in the open ocean. However, short-term and spatial variability can be high. 1.2 New datasets made available since Charting Progress 2 make it possible to greatly improve the characterisation of CO2 and ocean acidification in UK waters. 3.1 Recent UK cruise data contribute to large gaps in national and global datasets. 3.2 The new UK measurements confirm that pH is highly variable, therefore it is important to measure consistently to determine any long term trends. 3.3 Over the past 30 years, North Sea pH has decreased at 0.0035±0.0014 pH units per year. 3.4 Upper ocean pH values are highest in spring, lowest in autumn. These changes reflect the seasonal cycles in photosynthesis, respiration (decomposition) and water mixing. 3.5 Carbonate saturation states are minimal in the winter, and lower in 7 more northerly, colder waters. This temperature-dependence could have implications for future warming of the seas. 3.6 Over the annual cycle, North-west European seas are net sinks of CO2. However, during late summer to autumn months, some coastal waters may be significant sources. 3.7 In seasonally-stratified waters, sea-floor organisms naturally experience lower pH and saturation states; they may therefore be more vulnerable to threshold changes. 3.8 Large pH changes (0.5 - 1.0 units) can occur in the top 1 cm of sediment; however, such effects are not well-documented. 3.9 A coupled forecast model estimates the decrease in pH trend within the North Sea to be -0.0036±0.00034 pH units per year, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). 3.10 Seasonal estimates from the forecast model demonstrate areas of the North Sea that are particularly vulnerable to aragonite undersaturation

Disaster risk in Caribbean fisheries: How vulnerability is shaped and how it can be reduced in Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda

Hurricanes and tropical storms have a substantial and sustained influence on fisheries globally. These threats present particularly significant challenges in Caribbean islands, where fisheries contribute towards economies, food security, and social and cultural identities. Yet, storm impacts on coastal communities and fisheries are a relatively neglected area of disaster risk reduction. In response, this paper reports on a novel application and adaptation of the Pressure and Release model (PAR) focused on Caribbean Island fisheries. The PAR is a wellestablished framework used to understand how vulnerability manifests and to identify appropriate policy and management options to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in the longer-term. This research highlights how this approach can expose underlying social, cultural, and economic factors that can either reduce or exacerbate vulnerability in the Caribbean island fisheries sector following extreme weather events using Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda as case studies. This study combines a literature review compiling data on underlying factors of vulnerability for Caribbean Island fisheries, with in-person interviews with fisheries managers from Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda. It showcases the utility of the PAR in fisheries-focused recovery, and provides empirical evidence that fisheries play an important role in supporting immediate and medium-term coping and recovery after an extreme storm event. This approach has broader relevance for climate change adaptation as it highlights strategies for building resilience for fisheries-dependent societies

Acidification and its effect on the ecosystems of the ICES Area

This focuses on the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on ecosystems and higher trophic levels in the ICES Area. One of ICES distinguishing features is its access to scientists across the entire marine field. This report is based on the Report of the Workshop on the Significance of Changes in Surface CO2 and Ocean pH in ICES Shelf Sea Ecosystems (WKCpH; ICES, 2007c), updated to include recent research, using inputs from the chairs of ICES working groups. Oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to a perturbation of the chemical environment, primarily in ocean surface waters, which is associated with an increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The increase in atmospheric CO2 from ca. 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) 200 years ago to 390 ppmv today (2011) has most probably been caused by an average reduction across the surface of the oceans of ca. 0.08 pH units (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003) and a decrease in the carbonate ion (CO32−) of ca. 20 μmol kg −1 (Keshgi, 1995; Figure 5.1). It has been estimated that the level could drop by a further 0.3 – 0.4 pH units by the year 2100 if CO2 emissions are not regulated (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Raven et al., 2005). A study of potential changes in most of the North Sea (Blackford and Gilbert, 2007) suggests that pH change this century may exceed its natural annual variability. Impacts of acidity induced change are likely, but their exact nature remains largely unknown, and they may occur across the whole range of ecosystem processes. Most work has concentrated on open‐ocean systems, and little research has been applied to the complex systems found in shelf‐sea environments

Coding Early Naturalists' Accounts into Long-Term Fish Community Changes in the Adriatic Sea (1800–2000)

The understanding of fish communities' changes over the past centuries has important implications for conservation policy and marine resource management. However, reconstructing these changes is difficult because information on marine communities before the second half of the 20th century is, in most cases, anecdotal and merely qualitative. Therefore, historical qualitative records and modern quantitative data are not directly comparable, and their integration for long-term analyses is not straightforward. We developed a methodology that allows the coding of qualitative information provided by early naturalists into semi-quantitative information through an intercalibration with landing proportions. This approach allowed us to reconstruct and quantitatively analyze a 200-year-long time series of fish community structure indicators in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea). Our analysis provides evidence of long-term changes in fish community structure, including the decline of Chondrichthyes, large-sized and late-maturing species. This work highlights the importance of broadening the time-frame through which we look at marine ecosystem changes and provides a methodology to exploit, in a quantitative framework, historical qualitative sources. To the purpose, naturalists' eyewitness accounts proved to be useful for extending the analysis on fish community back in the past, well before the onset of field-based monitoring programs

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Marine recreational fishing and the implications of climate change

Marine recreational fishing is popular globally and benefits coastal economies and people's well-being. For some species, it represents a large component of fish landings. Climate change is anticipated to affect recreational fishing in many ways, creating opportunities and challenges. Rising temperatures or changes in storms and waves are expected to impact the availability of fish to recreational fishers, through changes in recruitment, growth and survival. Shifts in distribution are also expected, affecting the location that target species can be caught. Climate change also threatens the safety of fishing. Opportunities may be reduced owing to rougher conditions, and costs may be incurred if gear is lost or damaged in bad weather. However, not all effects are expected to be negative. Where weather conditions change favourably, participation rates could increase, and desirable species may become available in new areas. Drawing on examples from the UK and Australia, we synthesize existing knowledge to develop a conceptual model of climate-driven factors that could impact marine recreational fisheries, in terms of operations, participation and motivation. We uncover the complex pathways of drivers that underpin the recreational sector. Climate changes may have global implications on the behaviour of recreational fishers and on catches and local economies