On A Simple Method For Analyzing Multivariate Survival Data Using Sample Survey Methods

A simple technique is illustrated for analyzing multivariate survival data. The data situation arises when an individual records multiple survival events, or when individuals recording single survival events are grouped into clusters. Past work has focused on developing new methods to handle such data. Here, we use a connection between Poisson regression and survival modeling and a cluster sampling approach to adjust the variance estimates. The approach requires parametric assumption for the marginal hazard function, but avoids specification of a joint multivariate survival distribution. A simulation study demonstrates the proposed approach is a competing method of recent developed marginal approaches in the literature

Robust Estimation Of Multivariate Failure Data With Time-Modulated Frailty

A time-modulated frailty model is proposed for analyzing multivariate failure data. The effect of frailties, which may not be constant over time, is discussed. We assume a parametric model for the baseline hazard, but avoid the parametric assumption for the frailty distribution. The well-known connection between survival times and Poisson regression model is used. The parameters of interest are estimated by generalized estimating equations (GEE) or by penalized GEE. Simulation studies show that the procedure is successful to detect the effect of time-modulated frailty. The method is also applied to a placebo controlled randomized clinical trial of gamma interferon, a study of chronic granulomatous disease (CGD)

Patients on Antithrombotic Agents with Small Bowel Bleeding –Yield of Small Bowel Capsule Endoscopy and Subsequent Management

Background and Aims: Small bowel gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is associated with multiple blood transfusions, prolonged and/or multiple hospital admissions, utilization of significant healthcare resources, and negative effects on patient quality of life. There is a well-recognized association between antithrombotic medications and small bowel GIB. We aimed to identify the diagnostic yield of small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) in patients on antithrombotic medications and the impact of SBCE on treatment course. Methods: The electronic medical records of nineteen hundred eighty-six patients undergoing SBCE were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The diagnostic yield for detecting stigmata of recent bleeding and/or actively bleeding lesions in SBCE was higher in patients that were on antiplatelet agents (21.6%), patients on anticoagulation (22.5%), and in patients that had their SBCE performed while they were inpatient (21.8%), when compared to the patients not on antiplatelet agents (12.1%), patients not on anticoagulation (13.5%), and with patients that had their SBCE performed in the outpatient setting (12%). Of 318 patients who had stigmata of recent bleeding and/or actively bleeding lesion(s) identified on SBCE, SBCE findings prompted endoscopic evaluation (small bowel enteroscopy, esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), and/or colonoscopy) in 25.2%, with endoscopic hemostasis attempted in 52.5%. Conclusions: Our study, the largest conducted to date, emphasizes the importance of performing SBCE as part of the evaluation for suspected small bowel bleeding, particularly in patients taking antithrombotic therapy, and especially during their inpatient hospital stay

Association of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors With Neurologic Adverse Events: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Neurologic adverse events (NAEs) due to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) can be fatal but are underexplored. Objective: To compare NAEs reported in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of US Food and Drug Administration-approved ICIs with other forms of chemotherapy and placebo. Data Sources: Bibliographic databases (Embase, Ovid, MEDLINE, and Scopus data) and trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov) were searched from inception through March 1, 2020. Study Selection: Phase II/III RCTs evaluating the use of ICIs were eligible for inclusion. Unpublished trials were excluded from the analysis. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two investigators independently performed screening of trials using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guideline. NAEs were recorded for each arm. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of NAEs with ICI use compared with any drug regimen, cytotoxic chemotherapy, and placebo. Results: A total 39 trials including 23 705 patients were analyzed (16 135 [68.0%] men, 7866 [33.1%] White). The overall risk of a NAE was lower in the ICI group (risk ratio [RR], 0.59; 95% CI, 0.45-0.77) and in the subgroup of RCTs comparing ICI use with chemotherapy (RR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.13-0.39). In the subgroup of RCTs comparing ICI with placebo, the overall risk of NAE was significantly higher in the ICI group (RR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.30-1.89). Peripheral neuropathy (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.17-0.51) and dysgeusia (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.27-0.63) were significantly lower in the ICI group. Headache was more common with the use of ICIs (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.59). In the subgroup analysis of RCTs comparing ICI use with chemotherapy, peripheral neuropathy (RR, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.05-0.17), dysgeusia (RR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.21-0.85), and paresthesia (RR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.13-0.67) were significantly lower in the ICI group. RCTs comparing ICIs with placebo showed a higher risk of headache with ICI use (RR, 1.63; 95%, CI, 1.32-2.02). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this meta-analysis suggest that the overall risk of NAEs, peripheral neuropathy, and dysgeusia is lower with the use of ICI. When compared with chemotherapy, the overall risk of NAE, peripheral neuropathy, paresthesia, and dysgeusia was lower with ICI use; however, when compared with placebo, the risk of NAEs is higher with the use of ICI

Deep learning-based prediction of response to HER2-targeted neoadjuvant chemotherapy from pre-treatment dynamic breast MRI: A multi-institutional validation study

Predicting response to neoadjuvant therapy is a vexing challenge in breast cancer. In this study, we evaluate the ability of deep learning to predict response to HER2-targeted neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) from pre-treatment dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI acquired prior to treatment. In a retrospective study encompassing DCE-MRI data from a total of 157 HER2+ breast cancer patients from 5 institutions, we developed and validated a deep learning approach for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to HER2-targeted NAC prior to treatment. 100 patients who received HER2-targeted neoadjuvant chemotherapy at a single institution were used to train (n=85) and tune (n=15) a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict pCR. A multi-input CNN leveraging both pre-contrast and late post-contrast DCE-MRI acquisitions was identified to achieve optimal response prediction within the validation set (AUC=0.93). This model was then tested on two independent testing cohorts with pre-treatment DCE-MRI data. It achieved strong performance in a 28 patient testing set from a second institution (AUC=0.85, 95% CI 0.67-1.0, p=.0008) and a 29 patient multicenter trial including data from 3 additional institutions (AUC=0.77, 95% CI 0.58-0.97, p=0.006). Deep learning-based response prediction model was found to exceed a multivariable model incorporating predictive clinical variables (AUC < .65 in testing cohorts) and a model of semi-quantitative DCE-MRI pharmacokinetic measurements (AUC < .60 in testing cohorts). The results presented in this work across multiple sites suggest that with further validation deep learning could provide an effective and reliable tool to guide targeted therapy in breast cancer, thus reducing overtreatment among HER2+ patients.Comment: Braman and El Adoui contributed equally to this work. 33 pages, 3 figures in main tex

HPV Infection and EGFR Activation/Alteration in HIV-Infected East African Patients with Conjunctival Carcinoma

Background There has been substantial growth in the numbers of patients with conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma infected with HIV in East Africa. The natural history of the conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma appears to be unique in this region of the world, but the etiologic mechanism unclear and therapeutic options limited. This research was carried out to determine if conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma harbors human papillomavirus DNA and is associated with activation of the EGFR signaling pathway. Positive findings would identify etiologic causes and provide clinical guidance to improve treatment. Methods/Findings Expression of p-MAPK/MAPK, p-Akt/Akt and p-EGFR/EGFR in cell nuclei and cytoplasm of 38 FFPE specimens were assessed by immunohistochemistry; HPV genotype was detected by qPCR assay; EGFR mutation was assessed by DNA sequencing analysis; and EGFR mRNA expression was measured using relative qPCR. Statistical analyses included two-sided Fisher exact test or chi-square test, Spearman correlation coefficient and ANOVA. HPV 18 was found in 61% of samples, with HPV 16 double-genotype in 6 patients (16%). Immunohistochemistry and qPCR data suggest that activation and expression of the EGFR signaling pathway is related to disease progression of conjunctival cancer. The associations between cytoplasmic p-MAPK, cytoplasmic p-Akt and tumor invasiveness were significant (p = 0.05 or 0.028). Nuclear p-EGFR appeared only in invasive tumors. A significant positive association between EGFR expression and disease invasiveness was observed (p = 0.01). A SNP in 10 patients and one missense mutation were found within EGFR tyrosine kinase domain. Statistical analysis indicates that patients with measurable EGFR expression more likely harbor EGFR mutations, compared to those with negative EGFR expression (35.3% vs. 0%). Conclusions/Significance We conclude that HPV types 16/18 infection is frequent in East African patients with AIDS-associated squamous cell carcinoma of the conjunctiva. EGFR activation/alteration may contribute to and sustain the high prevalence of this cancer. Our findings hint that adoption of HPV vaccination strategies may impact the incidence of conjunctival carcinoma. Agents that target the EGFR pathway may have potential therapeutic benefit

HPV Infection and EGFR Activation/Alteration in HIV-Infected East African Patients with Conjunctival Carcinoma

Background There has been substantial growth in the numbers of patients with conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma infected with HIV in East Africa. The natural history of the conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma appears to be unique in this region of the world, but the etiologic mechanism unclear and therapeutic options limited. This research was carried out to determine if conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma harbors human papillomavirus DNA and is associated with activation of the EGFR signaling pathway. Positive findings would identify etiologic causes and provide clinical guidance to improve treatment. Methods/Findings Expression of p-MAPK/MAPK, p-Akt/Akt and p-EGFR/EGFR in cell nuclei and cytoplasm of 38 FFPE specimens were assessed by immunohistochemistry; HPV genotype was detected by qPCR assay; EGFR mutation was assessed by DNA sequencing analysis; and EGFR mRNA expression was measured using relative qPCR. Statistical analyses included two-sided Fisher exact test or chi-square test, Spearman correlation coefficient and ANOVA. HPV 18 was found in 61% of samples, with HPV 16 double-genotype in 6 patients (16%). Immunohistochemistry and qPCR data suggest that activation and expression of the EGFR signaling pathway is related to disease progression of conjunctival cancer. The associations between cytoplasmic p-MAPK, cytoplasmic p-Akt and tumor invasiveness were significant (p = 0.05 or 0.028). Nuclear p-EGFR appeared only in invasive tumors. A significant positive association between EGFR expression and disease invasiveness was observed (p = 0.01). A SNP in 10 patients and one missense mutation were found within EGFR tyrosine kinase domain. Statistical analysis indicates that patients with measurable EGFR expression more likely harbor EGFR mutations, compared to those with negative EGFR expression (35.3% vs. 0%). Conclusions/Significance We conclude that HPV types 16/18 infection is frequent in East African patients with AIDS-associated squamous cell carcinoma of the conjunctiva. EGFR activation/alteration may contribute to and sustain the high prevalence of this cancer. Our findings hint that adoption of HPV vaccination strategies may impact the incidence of conjunctival carcinoma. Agents that target the EGFR pathway may have potential therapeutic benefit

Pilot trial of a type I - polarized autologous dendritic cell vaccine incorporating tumor blood vessel antigen-derived peptides in patients with metastatic breast cancer

Cancer vaccines based on tumor-associated antigens are rarely curative in advanced cancer. This limitation relates to the heterogeneity of cancer due to defects in antigen presentation and altered immunophenotypes. Therefore, another method to promote anti-tumor immunity is to prime T cells against tumor-associated stromal cells. We have reported [1] that IL-12 gene therapy of established HLA-A2neg B16 melanomas in HLA-A2+ transgenic mice resulted in CD8+ T cell-mediated immunity against the host HLA-A2+ stromal cells within the tumor microenvironment (TME). We have also shown [2] that vaccines based on a subset of tumor blood vessel antigen (TBVA)-derived peptides (DLK1, EphA2, HBB, NRP1, PDGFRβ, RGS5 or TEM1) prevented HLA-A2neg MC38 tumor establishment and promoted the regression of tumors in HLA-A2+ mice by CD8+ T cell targeting of HLA-A2+ pericytes and vascular endothelial cells in the TME. Based on this pre-clinical data, we propose to undertake a Susan G. Komen -funded (IIR13261822) clinical trial of chemo-immunotherapy using the immunomodulatory drug gemcitabine with a dendritic cell vaccine pulsed with six HLA-A2-presented TBVA-derived peptides (DLK1310-318, EphA2883-891, HBB31-39, NRP1433-441, RGS55-13 and TEM1691-700) in 30 HLA-A2+ patients with metastatic breast cancer. The specific aims of this study are to determine vaccine-induced generation of TBVA-Tc1 immunity and clinical response

An Imaging Biomarker of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes to Risk-Stratify Patients With HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancer

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has excellent control rates compared to nonvirally associated OPSCC. Multiple trials are actively testing whether de-escalation of treatment intensity for these patients can maintain oncologic equipoise while reducing treatment-related toxicity. We have developed OP-TIL, a biomarker that characterizes the spatial interplay between tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and surrounding cells in histology images. Herein, we sought to test whether OP-TIL can segregate stage I HPV-associated OPSCC patients into low-risk and high-risk groups and aid in patient selection for de-escalation clinical trials. METHODS: Association between OP-TIL and patient outcome was explored on whole slide hematoxylin and eosin images from 439 stage I HPV-associated OPSCC patients across 6 institutional cohorts. One institutional cohort (n = 94) was used to identify the most prognostic features and train a Cox regression model to predict risk of recurrence and death. Survival analysis was used to validate the algorithm as a biomarker of recurrence or death in the remaining 5 cohorts (n = 345). All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: OP-TIL separated stage I HPV-associated OPSCC patients with 30 or less pack-year smoking history into low-risk (2-year disease-free survival [DFS] = 94.2%; 5-year DFS = 88.4%) and high-risk (2-year DFS = 82.5%; 5-year DFS = 74.2%) groups (hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval = 1.52 to 4.32; P \u3c .001), even after adjusting for age, smoking status, T and N classification, and treatment modality on multivariate analysis for DFS (hazard ratio = 2.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.32 to 3.94; P = .003). CONCLUSIONS: OP-TIL can identify stage I HPV-associated OPSCC patients likely to be poor candidates for treatment de-escalation. Following validation on previously completed multi-institutional clinical trials, OP-TIL has the potential to be a biomarker, beyond clinical stage and HPV status, that can be used clinically to optimize patient selection for de-escalation

Phase I study of intra-osseous co-transplantation of a single-unit cord blood and mesenchymal stromal cells with reduced intensity conditioning regimens

Cord blood (CB) is a valuable graft source for patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) who lack human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched donors. However, single-unit CB-HCT is limited by the insufficient cell dose and slow engraftment. To overcome these limitations, we combined a single-unit CB with third-party healthy donors’ bone marrow (BM) derived mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) to improve engraftment and injected intra-osseously (IO) to enhance homing. In this phase I clinical trial, six patients with high-risk hematologic malignancies were enrolled and received allogeneic HCT using reduced intensity conditioning regimens. The primary objective was to determine the engraftment rate at day 42. The median age of enrolled patients was 68 years, and only one patient was in complete remission at the time of HCT. The median CB total nucleated cell dose was 3.2x107/kg. No serious adverse events were reported. Two patients had early deaths due to persistent disease and multi-drug resistant bacterial infection, respectively. Of the remaining four evaluable patients, all had successful neutrophil engraftment in a median of 17.5 days. No grade 3 or higher acute graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) was observed, and only one patient developed moderate-extensive chronic GvHD. In conclusion, IO co-transplantation of a single-unit CB and MSCs was feasible and resulted in a reasonable engraftment rate in these very high-risk patients