Análise estrutural e considerações sobre a dinâmica sucessional de dois fragmentos florestais semideciduais do Jardim Botânico Municipal de Bauru, SP, Brasil Structural analysis and considerations on the successional dynamic of two semideciduous forest fragments at the Municipal Botanical Garden of Bauru, SP, Brazil

Parâmetros fitossociológicos, como freqüência de classes de altura e de diâmetro, são muito utilizados em inferências sobre sucessão secundária em fitocenoses. Indivíduos abustivo-arbóreos com no mínimo 1,5 m de altura e fuste a 1,3 m, foram amostrados em 2.600 m² de floresta estacional semidecidual do Jardim Botânico Municipal de Bauru (JBMB). Informações sobre as freqüências de classes de diâmetro das cinco espécies com maior índice de valor de importância (Ocotea pulchella, Protium heptaphyllum, Copaifera langsdorffii, Platypodium elegans e Trichilia pallida) e a classificação sucessional das populações mais numerosas também foram analisadas para inferências sobre as características sucessionais da comunidade estudada. As freqüências de classes de diâmetro de Vochysia tucanorum, espécie típica de savana, também foi estudada. As informações obtidas permitiram considerar que a floresta do JBMB encontra-se em estádio sucessional intermediário, e que, embora tenha sofrido com a ação do fogo no passado, algumas dessas populações estão conseguindo renovar-se.<br>Phytosociological parameters, as the frequency of height and diameter classes, are commonly used to make inferences about secondary succession in given phytocenoses. Shrub and tree individuals higher than 1.5 m and with a bole length of at least 1.3 m were sampled in 2,600 m2 of semideciduous seasonal forest in the Municipal Botanical Garden of Bauru (JBMB). Information on the diameter class frequencies of five species with the highest Importance Value Index (Ocotea pulchella, Protium heptaphyllum, Copaifera langsdorffii, Platypodium elegans and Trichilia pallida) and the more numerous species' successional classification were analyzed to make inferences about the successional features of the studied community. The diameter class frequencies of savannic species Vochysia tucanorum were also studied. The information obtained allowed to consider that the forest of the JBMB is at an intermediate successional stage, and that, although it used to be periodically burnt, some of its populations are able to renew themselves

Modelling and monitoring land-cover change processes in tropical regions

Transformations in terrestrial ecosystems are increasingly regarded as an important element of global change. Quantitative data on where, when and why land-cover changes take place globally are still incomplete. This article reviews recent approaches to the monitoring and modelling of deforestation and dryland degradation in tropical regions. The review highlights the requirement to tailor the investigation method to the specific research question of interest. Different techniques to monitor land-cover changes at regional scales are analysed. The following modelling scenarios are discussed and illustrated by specific studies: projection of future land-cover changes with descriptive models, explanation of land-cover changes with empirical models, projection of future spatial patterns of changes with spatial statistical models, test of scenarios on future changes in land-cover with dynamic ecosystem models, and design of policy interventions with economic models. The article stresses the needs for a better integration of social science knowledge in land-cover change models and for a comprehensive theory of land-use changes