Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)

Recently a number of studies on banking systems’ procyclicality have been drawn. Such an issue, often developed as a consequence of Basel 2 agreements, is related with credit crunch phenomena and financial stability. Typically, a temporary shock may produce a long term effect following or amplifying fluctuations through finance. For this reason procyclicality may significantly affect capital accumulation and long-term growth. Therefore, verifying and measuring whether a banking system is, or is not, procyclical is relevant in order to understand which effects regulatory schemes and financial architectures can produce on capital formation processes. While studies generally have a short period perspective, this paper analyses business fluctuations and banking cycles in the long run. The Italian financial history could provide useful insights because its evolutionary path experimented two different banking patterns. Universal banking prevailed until the Great Depression, whilst specialised financial institutions emerged afterwards. Economic historians have considered Italian universal banks, up to the early 1930s, a convincing example of procyclical intermediaries. Such hypothesis relies on qualitative research based on case studies, but it has not been verified in quantitative terms, yet. Thus, this paper aims to verify procyclicality of the Italian banking system in the long run applying VAR analysis on a wide set of economic and financial indicators. What emerges is that a certain cycle-smoothing effect is observed during the whole period, in spite of the major institutional shock occurred in the early 1930s (i.e. the new bank law), whilst relevant changes in banks’ asset structures suggest that central bank and government intervention had important impact on banks behaviour and policiescredit cycles, business cycles, procyclicality, credit crunch, financial stability, universal banking

Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?

This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of prociclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus. Effects in the opposite direction are much smaller. Results are quite stable over time.credit cycles, fiscal policy, procyclicality

Chômage involontaire et rationnement du crédit : une relecture de la relation salaire-emploi

International audienceThis article aims to establish a new type of relation between wage and employment. Following Keynes who has established a postulate of asymmetry between firms and workers by rejecting the "second classical postulate", we introduce, in addition to this postulate, an assumption of asymmetry between financial capital and firms. The latter makes it possible to obtain an imbalance of the credit market and of the labour market, while at the same time the market of the good is in balance. From now on, when the nominal wage decreases, the labour demand and the real wage remains inchanged.L'objet de cet article est de mettre en évidence une nouvelle relation salaire-emploi. A la suite de Keynes qui formule un postulat d'asymétrie entre entrepreneurs et salariés en rejetant le " second postulat classique ", nous introduisons dans un modèle d'équilibre général standard, outre ce postulat, une hypothèse d'asymétrie entre capital financier et entrepreneurs. Cette dernière permet d'obtenir un déséquilibre du marché du crédit et sur le marché du travail, alors même que le marché du bien est en équilibre. Désormais, quand le salaire nominal diminue, le salaire réel et la demande de travail restent inchangés

Postulat de la monnaie et théorie de la valeur chez Marx

International audienceL'article tente de réévaluer la portée de la critique de Carlo Benetti au sujet de la théorie de la monnaie marxienne. Si effectivement il n'est pas possible de déduire logiquement la théorie de la monnaie de la théorie de la marchandise chez Marx, nous proposons de postuler la monnaie à l'intérieur même de la théorie de la valeur. Ce type de postulat serait fondamentalement différent du postulat keynésien de la monnaie qui conduit à rejeter la théorie de la valeur et de la répartition. Cette proposition de " postulat marxien de la monnaie " présente l'avantage de conserver les enseignements qu'apporte l'analyse marxienne de l'économie monétaire

La convention financière chez Keynes

This article attempts to question the conventionalist interpretation of the General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money’s twelfth chapter. It analyzes the keynesian concept of financial convention. Can it be thought as an alternative way of coordination? Does it truly provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of the French Convention School? According to our reading of the Chapter 12, coordination does work through prices, yet now defined as product of opinions. Cet article tente de questionner l’interprétation conventionnaliste du chapitre 12 de la Théorie générale, et d’analyser la signification du concept de convention financière chez Keynes. La convention financière est-elle réellement chez Keynes un mode de coordination alternatif aux prix? La réponse à cette question nous permettra de savoir s’il est possible de trouver chez Keynes un fondement théorique à l’analyse de l’économie des conventions. D’après notre analyse, il n’existe pas véritablement de mode de coordination alternatif aux prix chez Keynes, mais plutôt des prix qui sont le produit pur d’opinions.

SARNET2 Severe Accident Phenomenology Course - January 2011

The first SARNET2 “Severe Accident Phenomenology Short Course” was organized from 10 to 14 January 2011 by CEA and UNIPI and hosted by Pisa University, with the participation of about 100 students from 20 different countries. This was a 1-week course on phenomenology, focused on disseminating the knowledge gained on severe accidents in the last two decades to students, young engineers and researchers. The goal was also to refresh participants memories after 5 years and SARNET new outcomes, with a program covering severe accident phenomenology and progression in current watercooled Gen. II NPPs, but also the different design solutions in Gen. III ones. Lecturers were experts from 8 different countries, with large skills and knowledge on Gen. II and III plants and on the progression of a severe accident. The course was open to university students with a discount fee and contributed for 3 ECTS with a strong link among SARNET2 and ENEN

Reinforced concrete columns strengthened with angles and battens subjected to eccentric load

The aim of the work is, on the one hand, the presentation of a theoretical fiber model able to predict the moment curvature behaviour of RC columns confined by means of angles and battens and, on the other hand, the validation of the proposed model by means of the comparison between analytical results and experimental evidence coming from 13 specimens tested under axial forcemoment interaction. The analytical model is able to account for many parameters often neglected in current design practice, such as the influence of both hoops and battens on concrete confinement, the buckling of longitudinal bars and the influence of the structural detail aimed at assuring the continuity through the concrete floor slab which affects the angle behaviour. The proposed model has been used for predicting the load carrying capacity of both unstrengthened and strengthened columns, obtaining a good degree of accuracy. In addition, the comparison in terms of momentrotation curves has been performed, showing the model accuracy in predicting the structural response in the whole deformation range

Doppler imaging of the young late-type star LO Pegasi (BD +22 4409) in September 2003

A Doppler image of the ZAMS late-type rapidly rotating star LO Pegasi, based on spectra acquired between 12 and 15 September 2003, is presented. The Least Square Deconvolution technique is applied to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the mean rotational broadened line profiles extracted from the observed spectra. In the present application, a unbroadened spectrum is used as a reference, instead of a simple line list, to improve the deconvolution technique applied to extract the mean profiles. The reconstructed image is similar to those previously obtained from observations taken in 1993 and 1998, and shows that LO Peg photospheric activity is dominated by high-latitude spots with a non-uniform polar cap. The latter seems to be a persistent feature as it has been observed since 1993 with little modifications. Small spots, observed between ~ 10 and ~ 60 degrees of latitude, appears to be different with respect to those present in the 1993 and 1998 maps.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, accepted by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Plastic design of seismic resistant V-braced frames.

In this article, a new method for designing chevron concentrically braced steel frames is presented. The aim of the proposed method is the design of concentrically braced steel frames able to guarantee, under seismic horizontal forces, a collapse mechanism of global type. This result is of great importance in the seismic design of structures, because local failure modes give rise to a worsening of the energy dissipation capacity of structures and, therefore, to an higher probability of failure during severe earthquakes. With reference to the examined structural typology, the global mechanism is characterized by the yielding of tensile bracing diagonals and by the buckling of the compressed diagonals of all the stories. The proposed method is rigorously based on ‘‘capacity design approach’’ which requires that dissipative zones have to be designed to withstand the internal actions due to the seismic design horizontal forces and the vertical loads acting in the seismic load combination; while non dissipative zones have to be designed considering the maximum internal actions that dissipative zones, yielded and strain-hardened, are able to transmit. The new design issue covered by the proposed design procedure is the need to account for the contribution of the compressed diagonals in deriving the design axial force of non dissipative members. The seismic inelastic response of a sample structure is investigated by means of nonlinear dynamic analyses. The results carried out with reference to braced frames designed according to the proposed procedure are compared with those obtained with reference to the same structural schemes designed according to Eurocode 8

Stress testing and solvency for the credit cooperative banks in view of Basel 3

This paper investigates the adequacy of solvency in the credit cooperative banks (BCC) which operate in the Italian market in view of the application of the new rules of Basel 3. The study analyses the solvency of BCC and immediately applies the rules of Basel 3. Moreover, it activates a stress testing on the sample in order to understand BCC financial strength in the case of a new financial crisis. The research shows that the credit cooperative banks are more solid than the other banks in the Italian market and leads the lawmaker to reflect about the opportunity to fix the same rules both for small and large banks (more oriented to the investment banking model) which operate in Italy.Basilea 3; Credito Cooperativo; Stress Testing; Solvibilità