114 research outputs found
The Dynamics of Expectations. A Look on Forecasting as a Sequence
The paper claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly updates and revised. Paying attention to the dynamics of expectations provides the opportunity to study changes in expectations formed by professionals, and thus give insights into how their labor unfolds. Drawing upon data from a purposely-built database of forecasts running from Sep-tember 2006 to September 2017, linear and logistic regression models investigate the infor-mational and organizational grounds of forecasts revisions. It it suggests that similar forecasts form a consistent sequence, so that revisions mostly consist in the adjustments of âoldâ fore-casts with respect to newly available information. By and large, forecasting means updating former forecasts. Besides, data shows the core activity of forecasting organizations, and in turn their audience, matter to understand the extent to which they revise their forecasts: de-spite what forecasters claim in interviews, public institutions, among which the IMF or the OECD, tend to revise their forecasts on a wider scale than private banks or insurance com-panies. Eventually, scrutinizing how forecasts revisions distribute according to the years dur-ing which they are produced, stress that during major economic crises, such as the Great Recession, forecasters not only revise their former expectations downward but also upward. This hints at a Durkheim-inspired interpretation of economic crises as re-opening the future
Protection sociale, structures marchandes et temporalitĂ© de lâactivitĂ©:Pigistes et comĂ©diens face Ă lâassurance-chĂŽmage
LâĂ©tude des populations artistiques met en Ă©vidence le rĂŽle de la protection sociale, et notamment de lâassurance-chĂŽmage, dans le cas des carriĂšres « par projets ». Lâanalyse conjointe dâune population de comĂ©diens et de pigistes permet de revenir sur ce rĂ©sultat en montrant que les dispositifs de protection sociale ne sont pas nĂ©cessairement structurants pour toutes les carriĂšres « par projets ». La diffĂ©rence dans le rapport quâentretiennent les individus Ă lâindemnisation du chĂŽmage, dans les deux univers, met en jeu plusieurs dimensions qui permettent dâĂ©clairer la structure de ces mondes. En particulier, elle souligne lâimportance de la prise en compte des structures marchandes de ces univers, qui conditionnent lâorganisation temporelle de ces activitĂ©s. Elles peuvent faire du travail plutĂŽt que de lâemploi la catĂ©gorie cognitive pertinente pour lâindividu, si bien que, dans des activitĂ©s revĂȘtant une dimension entrepreneuriale, il soit peu amenĂ© Ă se considĂ©rer comme chĂŽmeurStudies of artistic populations emphasize the role of social security, notably employment insurance, for project-based careers. Analysis of populations of actors and freelance journalists provides an opportunity to question this result, and shows evidence that the social security system does not necessarily shape all project-based careers. In the worlds studied here, individuals' variable relationships to unemployment insurance bring to light several aspects which shed light on the structure of these worlds. It particularly advocates for the importance of taking into account market structures, as they shape the way in which activities are organized in time, with the result that work, rather than employment, emerges as the relevant cognitive category for an individual. Whenever activity comes to resemble entrepreneurship, a person may not be as inclined to define his/her situation as being "unemployed.
L'intermittence, nouvelle norme du marché du travail ?
Si le dĂ©veloppement de lâemploi Ă durĂ©e dĂ©terminĂ©e ou Ă temps partiel constitue lâune des Ă©volutions majeures du marchĂ© du travail au cours des derniĂšres dĂ©cennies, faire de lâintermittence une norme sur le marchĂ© du travail pose problĂšme. En effet, câest oublier que le marchĂ© du travail sâorganise, en France, autour du contrat Ă durĂ©e indĂ©terminĂ©e Ă temps plein. Les discours appelant de leurs vĆux lâavĂšnement dâun travail libĂ©rĂ© omettent, quant Ă eux, que les formes particuliĂšres dâemploi se rencontrent principalement sur les pans dominĂ©s du marchĂ© du travail. Cet article dĂ©crit finalement les traits saillants du marchĂ© de lâintermittence du spectacle, rĂ©guliĂšrement pris comme modĂšle des Ă©volutions rĂ©centes.For a couple of decades, the raise of fixed-term or part-time contracts has been one of the main features of the French labor market. Still, pretending âintermittenceâ (a specific form of contingent labor) is the new norm on this market is questionable. As a matter of fact, open-ended full-time contracts still organize the employment world in France. Advocates of a coming free labor forget that particular forms of employment remain associated with dominated sides of labor markets. This text ends with the description of salient features of the market for performing arts (âintermittence du spectacleâ), which is regularly regarded as the pattern for recent labor market changes
Compte rendu de l'ouvrage 'Les équipes parlementaires des eurodéputés'
EnvisagĂ©s sous lâangle du travail ou de la profession, les mĂ©tiers politiques figurent dĂ©sormais parmi les objets de la sociologie, au-delĂ du seul pĂ©rimĂštre des sciences sociales du politique. Lâouvrage de SĂ©bastien Michon revendique son inscription dans cette lignĂ©e. Il invite Ă prĂȘter attention Ă lâespace parlementaire europĂ©en, relativement dĂ©laissĂ© au profit de ses homologues nationaux ou locaux, et Ă sâintĂ©resser au travail parlementaire en se concentrant non pas sur sa « scĂšne » (incarnĂ©e par lâhĂ©micycle), mais sur ses « coulisses », peuplĂ©es dâassistants qui forment lâobjet empirique de lâĂ©tude. Lâinterrogation qui le sous-tend, inspirĂ©e de Pierre Bourdieu, porte sur la nature des capitaux que ces postes permettent dâaccumuler. Il apporte un Ă©clairage original sur la nature du travail parlementaire dans cet espace politique particulier quâest le Parlement EuropĂ©en (PE), et repose sur lâexploitation dâun matĂ©riau abondant aussi bien qualitatif (entretiens et observations ethnographiques, convoquĂ©es dans lâouvrage avec parcimonie) que quantitatif [Premier paragraphe]
Faire valoir ses compétences:Les pigistes et le placement de sujet
La hausse du nombre des pigistes parmi les journalistes suscite un changement des pratiques sur ce marché
du travail. En effet, le pigiste est souvent en concurrence avec dâautres pigistes pour obtenir des opportunitĂ©s dâemploi avec les diffĂ©rents employeurs. Le placement de sujet dĂ©signe alors lâensemble des techniques mises en oeuvre par le pigiste afin dâorienter la demande de lâentreprise vers son offre particuliĂšre de travail et lui vendre un sujet. Sa rĂ©ussite requiert aussi bien des compĂ©tences propres Ă lâensemble des journalistes que des compĂ©tences plus spĂ©cifiques, souvent acquises par la pratique.Publishersâ labour market practices have changed as the result of the increasing numbers of free-lance journalists. Free-lancers often have to compete with each other for work opportunities with various publishing firms. Selling their wares involves using a whole set of techniques to orient the requirements of publishing firms towards the type of article a journalist has to offer and selling them this article. Some of the competences required for this purpose are common to all journalists, whereas other more individual skills are often acquired by experience
Des 'employeurs multiples' au 'noyau dur' d'employeurs:Relations de travail et concurrence sur le marché du travail des comédiens
La littĂ©rature managĂ©riale se saisit parfois dâun idĂ©al-type du travail intermittent pour dĂ©crire ce quâelle envisage comme des Ă©volutions Ă venir des modes dâorganisation du travail et de mobilisation
de la main dâĆuvre. Ces mutations se traduiraient notamment par un raccourcissement des relations
dâemploi toujours plus Ă©phĂ©mĂšres et plus nombreuses. Cet article sâappuie sur lâexploitation de donnĂ©es
statistiques concernant les comédiens intermittents. Il se propose de montrer que la conception du travail
artistique sous-jacente Ă ce discours ne saurait rendre compte de la pluralitĂ© effective des relations de travail quâentretiennent les artistes intermittents avec leurs employeurs. On peut en effet distinguer deux
rĂ©gimes de relations dâemploi sur le marchĂ© du travail des comĂ©diens. Tandis que le premier demeure
proche de lâidĂ©al-type dâun travailleur intermittent nouant des relations ponctuelles avec ses employeurs,
le second repose sur la constitution par lâindividu dâun « noyau dur » dâemployeurs. Ce « noyau » sâavĂšre de surcroĂźt particuliĂšrement important tant pour lâactivitĂ© du comĂ©dien, dont il reprĂ©sente une
part prépondérante, que pour sa carriÚre, à la stabilité de laquelle il contribue de façon décisive.Managerial literature sometimes uses an ideal-type of contingent labor to describe what it imagines to
be future changes in organizing work and labor. These changes would entail a shortening and, therefore,
multiplication of labor contracts. Statistics on the intermittents du spectacle (an administrative category
in France referring to performers as well as stagehands who work for the duration of a project in show
business, television and the performing arts) are analyzed to show that the conception of work in the
media industry, as reflected in the aforementioned writings, cannot account for the actual plurality of relations between these part-time employees and their employers. In the media industry labor market, two
types of labor relations can be distinguished. The one is close to the ideal-type of an intermittent employee who has occasional relations with his employer, whereas the other is based on a âhard coreâ of employers with whom an employee has recurrent relations. This core significantly affects the number of engagements of these performing artists and contributes decisively to the stability of their careers
Des 'employeurs multiples' au 'noyau dur' d'employeurs:Relations de travail et concurrence sur le marché du travail des comédiens
La littĂ©rature managĂ©riale se saisit parfois dâun idĂ©al-type du travail intermittent pour dĂ©crire ce quâelle envisage comme des Ă©volutions Ă venir des modes dâorganisation du travail et de mobilisation
de la main dâĆuvre. Ces mutations se traduiraient notamment par un raccourcissement des relations
dâemploi toujours plus Ă©phĂ©mĂšres et plus nombreuses. Cet article sâappuie sur lâexploitation de donnĂ©es
statistiques concernant les comédiens intermittents. Il se propose de montrer que la conception du travail
artistique sous-jacente Ă ce discours ne saurait rendre compte de la pluralitĂ© effective des relations de travail quâentretiennent les artistes intermittents avec leurs employeurs. On peut en effet distinguer deux
rĂ©gimes de relations dâemploi sur le marchĂ© du travail des comĂ©diens. Tandis que le premier demeure
proche de lâidĂ©al-type dâun travailleur intermittent nouant des relations ponctuelles avec ses employeurs,
le second repose sur la constitution par lâindividu dâun « noyau dur » dâemployeurs. Ce « noyau » sâavĂšre de surcroĂźt particuliĂšrement important tant pour lâactivitĂ© du comĂ©dien, dont il reprĂ©sente une
part prépondérante, que pour sa carriÚre, à la stabilité de laquelle il contribue de façon décisive.Managerial literature sometimes uses an ideal-type of contingent labor to describe what it imagines to
be future changes in organizing work and labor. These changes would entail a shortening and, therefore,
multiplication of labor contracts. Statistics on the intermittents du spectacle (an administrative category
in France referring to performers as well as stagehands who work for the duration of a project in show
business, television and the performing arts) are analyzed to show that the conception of work in the
media industry, as reflected in the aforementioned writings, cannot account for the actual plurality of relations between these part-time employees and their employers. In the media industry labor market, two
types of labor relations can be distinguished. The one is close to the ideal-type of an intermittent employee who has occasional relations with his employer, whereas the other is based on a âhard coreâ of employers with whom an employee has recurrent relations. This core significantly affects the number of engagements of these performing artists and contributes decisively to the stability of their careers
Producing in Urgent Situations:The Management of Unpredictability in the World of Journalism
Journalistic work is confronted structurally with urgent situations. Unlike other sectors using just-in-time methods, here urgency is not only the result of random failures in the production cycle, it also relates to the nature of the commodity itselfâ current affairsâwhich must be handled within the context of a collective organization. Based on observations and interviews in the written press, this article examines how urgency impacts journalistic production on a daily basis. It brings to light attempts at serialization within this flow of unique products and the slim possibility of negotiating irreversibilityâinherent in industrial processes. The solution to the problems posed by urgent situations principally stems from inventory management, emphasizing the central role of prediction making in situations where the content of the work is itself characterized by uncertainty
The Dynamics of Expectations:A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting
The chapter claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly
updates and revised. Paying attention to the dynamics of expectations provides
the opportunity to study changes in expectations formed by professionals, and thus
give insights into how their labor unfolds. Drawing upon data from a purposelybuilt
database of forecasts running from September 2006 to September 2017, linear
and logistic regression models investigate the informational and organizational
grounds of forecasts revisions. It suggests that similar forecasts form a consistent
sequence, so that revisions mostly consist in the adjustments of âoldâ forecasts with
respect to newly available information. By and large, forecasting means updating
former forecasts. Besides, data shows the core activity of forecasting organizations,
and in turn their audience, matter to understand the extent to which they revise their
forecasts: despite what forecasters claim in interviews, public institutions, among
which the IMF or the OECD, tend to revise their forecasts on a wider scale than private
banks or insurance companies. Eventually, scrutinizing how forecasts revisions
distribute according to the years during which they are produced, stress that during
major economic crises, such as the Great Recession, forecasters not only revise their
former expectations downward but also upward. This hints at a Durkheim-inspired
interpretation of economic crises as re-opening the future
Rentrer dans la danse
Pourquoi devient-on danseur ? Par vocation essentiellement. Encore faut-il que lâanalyse sociologique tienne compte de cette maniĂšre de sâengager dans ce mĂ©tier, ce quâelle peine Ă faire habituellement. Câest Ă ce manque que lâouvrage de Sorignet permet de remĂ©dier
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