Modelling uncertain adaptive decisions: Application to KwaZulu-Natal sugarcane growers

A dynamic Bayesian decision network was developed to model the pre- harvest burning decision-making processes of sugarcane growers in a KwaZulu-Natal sugarcane supply chain and extends previous work by Price et al. (2018). This model was created using an iterative development approach. This paper recounts the development and validation process of the third version of the model. The model was vali- dated using Pitchforth and Mengersen (2013)’s framework for validating expert elicited Bayesian networks. During this process, growers and cane supply members assessed the model in a focus group by executing the model, and reviewing the results of a pre- run scenario. The participants were generally positive about how the model represented their decision-making processes. However, they identified some issues that could be addressed in the next iteration. Dynamic Bayesian decision networks offer a promising approach to modelling adaptive decisions in uncertain conditions. This model can be used to simulate the cognitive mechanism for a grower agent in a simulation of a sugarcane supply chain

Establishing a health informatics research lab in South Africa

Aim/Purpose: The aim of this project was to explore models for stimulating health informatics innovation and capacity development in South Africa. Background: There is generally a critical lack of health informatics innovation and capacity in South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This is despite the wide anticipation that digital health systems will play a fundamental role in strengthening health systems and improving service delivery Methodology: We established a program over four years to train Masters and Doctoral students and conducted research projects across a wide range of biomedical and health informatics technologies at a leading South African university. We also developed a Health Architecture Laboratory Capacity Development and Innovation Ecosystem (HeAL-CDIE) designed to be a long-lasting and potentially reproducible output of the project. Contribution: We were able to demonstrate a successful model for building innovation and capacity in a sustainable way. Key outputs included: (i) a successful partnership model; (ii) a sustainable HeAL-CDIE; (iii) research papers; (iv) a world-class software product and several technology demonstrators ; and (iv) highly trained staff. Findings: Our main findings are that: (i) it is possible to create a local ecosystem for capacity development and innovation that creates value for the partners (a university and a private non-profit company); (ii) the ecosystem is able to create valuable outputs that would be much less likely to have been developed singly by each partner, and; (iii) the ecosystem could serve as a powerful model for adoption in other settings. Recommendations: for Practitioners:Non-profit companies and non-governmental organizations implementing health information systems in South Africa and other low resource settings have an opportunity to partner with local universities for purposes of internal capacity development and assisting with the research, reflection and innovation aspects of their projects and programmes. Recommendation for Researchers: Applied health informatics researchers working in low resource settings could productively partner with local implementing organizations in order to gain a better understanding of the challenges and requirements at field sites and to accelerate the testing and deployment of health information technology solutions. Impact on Society This research demonstrates a model that can deliver valuable software products for public health. Future Research: It would be useful to implement the model in other settings and investigate whether the model is more generally usefu

Quantifying redox transcription factor dynamics as a tool to investigate redox signalling

\ua9 2024 The Authors. A critical feature of the cellular antioxidant response is the induction of gene expression by redox-sensitive transcription factors. In many cells, activating these transcription factors is a dynamic process involving multiple redox steps, but it is unclear how these dynamics should be measured. Here, we show how the dynamic profile of the Schizosaccharomyces pombe Pap1 transcription factor is quantifiable by three parameters: signal amplitude, signal time and signal duration. In response to increasing hydrogen peroxide concentrations, the Pap1 amplitude decreased while the signal time and duration showed saturable increases. In co-response plots, these parameters showed a complex, non-linear relationship to the mRNA levels of four Pap1-regulated genes. We also demonstrate that hydrogen peroxide and tert-butyl hydroperoxide trigger quantifiably distinct Pap1 activation profiles and transcriptional responses. Based on these findings, we propose that different oxidants and oxidant concentrations modulate the Pap1 dynamic profile, leading to specific transcriptional responses. We further show how the effect of combination and pre-exposure stresses on Pap1 activation dynamics can be quantified using this approach. This method is therefore a valuable addition to the redox signalling toolbox that may illuminate the role of dynamics in determining appropriate responses to oxidative stress

Taking connected mobile-health diagnostics of infectious diseases to the field.

Mobile Health or mHealth - The application of mobile devices, their components and related technologies to healthcare is improving patients’ access to treatment and advice. Now, in combination with connected diagnostic devices it offers new possibilities to diagnose, track and control infectious diseases and improve health system efficiencies. In this context we look at these technologies and highlight their promise but also the challenges in realising their potential to increase patient access to testing, aid in their treatment and improve the capability of public health authorities to monitor outbreaks, implement responses, and assess the impact of interventions across the world

Cell-free (RNA) and cell-associated (DNA) HIV-1 and postnatal transmission through breastfeeding

<p>Introduction - Transmission through breastfeeding remains important for mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in resource-limited settings. We quantify the relationship between cell-free (RNA) and cell-associated (DNA) shedding of HIV-1 virus in breastmilk and the risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission in the first 6 months postpartum.</p> <p>Materials and Methods - Thirty-six HIV-positive mothers who transmitted HIV-1 by breastfeeding were matched to 36 non-transmitting HIV-1 infected mothers in a case-control study nested in a cohort of HIV-infected women. RNA and DNA were quantified in the same breastmilk sample taken at 6 weeks and 6 months. Cox regression analysis assessed the association between cell-free and cell-associated virus levels and risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission.</p> <p>Results - There were higher median levels of cell-free than cell-associated HIV-1 virus (per ml) in breastmilk at 6 weeks and 6 months. Multivariably, adjusting for antenatal CD4 count and maternal plasma viral load, at 6 weeks, each 10-fold increase in cell-free or cell-associated levels (per ml) was significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission but stronger for cell-associated than cell-free levels [2.47 (95% CI 1.33–4.59) vs. aHR 1.52 (95% CI, 1.17–1.96), respectively]. At 6 months, cell-free and cell-associated levels (per ml) in breastmilk remained significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission but was stronger for cell-free than cell-associated levels [aHR 2.53 (95% CI 1.64–3.92) vs. 1.73 (95% CI 0.94–3.19), respectively].</p> <p>Conclusions - The findings suggest that cell-associated virus level (per ml) is more important for early postpartum HIV-1 transmission (at 6 weeks) than cell-free virus. As cell-associated virus levels have been consistently detected in breastmilk despite antiretroviral therapy, this highlights a potential challenge for resource-limited settings to achieve the UNAIDS goal for 2015 of eliminating vertical transmission. More studies would further knowledge on mechanisms of HIV-1 transmission and help develop more effective drugs during lactation.</p&gt

Work satisfaction of professional nurses in South Africa: a comparative analysis of the public and private sectors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Work satisfaction of nurses is important, as there is sufficient empirical evidence to show that it tends to affect individual, organizational and greater health and social outcomes. Although there have been several studies of job satisfaction among nurses in South Africa, these are limited because they relate to studies of individual organizations or regions, use small samples or are dated. This paper presents a national study that compares and contrasts satisfaction levels of nurses in both public and private sectors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a cross-sectional survey of professional nurses conducted throughout South Africa using a pretested and self-administered questionnaire. Univariate and bivariate statistical models were used to evaluate levels of satisfaction with various facets of work and to elicit the differences in satisfaction levels between different groups of nurses. A total of 569 professional nurses participated in the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Private-sector nurses were generally satisfied, while public-sector nurses were generally dissatisfied. Public-sector nurses were most dissatisfied with their pay, the workload and the resources available to them. They were satisfied only with the social context of the work. Private-sector nurses were dissatisfied only with their pay and career development opportunities. Professional nurses in the more rural provinces, those intending to change sectors and those more likely not to be in their current positions within the next five years were also more likely to be dissatisfied with all facets of their work.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study highlighted the overall dissatisfaction among South African nurses and confirmed the disparity between the levels of job satisfaction between the public and private sectors. Health managers should address those factors that affect job satisfaction, and therefore retention, of nurses in South Africa. Improving the work environment so that it provides a context congruent with the aspirations and values systems of nurses is more likely to increase the satisfaction of nurses and consequently have a positive effect on individual, organizational and health outcomes.</p

Deriving an optimal threshold of waist circumference for detecting cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Waist circumference (WC) thresholds derived from western populations continue to be used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) despite increasing evidence of ethnic variation in the association between adiposity and cardiometabolic disease and availability of data from African populations. We aimed to derive a SSA-specific optimal WC cut-point for identifying individuals at increased cardiometabolic risk. METHODS: We used individual level cross-sectional data on 24 181 participants aged ⩾15 years from 17 studies conducted between 1990 and 2014 in eight countries in SSA. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to derive optimal WC cut-points for detecting the presence of at least two components of metabolic syndrome (MS), excluding WC. RESULTS: The optimal WC cut-point was 81.2 cm (95% CI 78.5-83.8 cm) and 81.0 cm (95% CI 79.2-82.8 cm) for men and women, respectively, with comparable accuracy in men and women. Sensitivity was higher in women (64%, 95% CI 63-65) than in men (53%, 95% CI 51-55), and increased with the prevalence of obesity. Having WC above the derived cut-point was associated with a twofold probability of having at least two components of MS (age-adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% CI 2.4-2.9, for men and 2.2, 95% CI 2.0-2.3, for women). CONCLUSION: The optimal WC cut-point for identifying men at increased cardiometabolic risk is lower (⩾81.2 cm) than current guidelines (⩾94.0 cm) recommend, and similar to that in women in SSA. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these cut-points based on cardiometabolic outcomes.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 31 October 2017; doi:10.1038/ijo.2017.240

The DUNDRUM Quartet: validation of structured professional judgement instruments DUNDRUM-3 assessment of programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 assessment of recovery in forensic mental health services

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Moving a forensic mental health patient from one level of therapeutic security to a lower level or to the community is influenced by more than risk assessment and risk management. We set out to construct and validate structured professional judgement instruments for consistency and transparency in decision making</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two instruments were developed, the seven-item DUNDRUM-3 programme completion instrument and the six item DUNDRUM-4 recovery instrument. These were assessed for all 95 forensic patients at Ireland's only forensic mental health hospital.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The two instruments had good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.911 and 0.887). Scores distinguished those allowed no leave or accompanied leave from those with unaccompanied leave (ANOVA F = 38.1 and 50.3 respectively, p < 0.001). Scores also distinguished those in acute/high security units from those in medium or in low secure/pre-discharge units. Each individual item distinguished these levels of need significantly. The DUNDRUM-3 and DUNDRUM-4 correlated moderately with measures of dynamic risk and with the CANFOR staff rated unmet need (Spearman r = 0.5, p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The DUNDRUM-3 programme completion items distinguished significantly between levels of therapeutic security while the DUNDRUM-4 recovery items consistently distinguished those given unaccompanied leave outside the hospital and those in the lowest levels of therapeutic security. This data forms the basis for a prospective study of outcomes now underway.</p

Potent Activity of the HIV-1 Maturation Inhibitor Bevirimat in SCID-hu Thy/Liv Mice

The HIV-1 maturation inhibitor, 3-O-(3',3'-dimethylsuccinyl) betulinic acid (bevirimat, PA-457) is a promising drug candidate with 10 nM in vitro antiviral activity against multiple wild-type (WT) and drug-resistant HIV-1 isolates. Bevirimat has a novel mechanism of action, specifically inhibiting cleavage of spacer peptide 1 (SP1) from the C-terminus of capsid which results in defective core condensation.Oral administration of bevirimat to HIV-1-infected SCID-hu Thy/Liv mice reduced viral RNA by >2 log(10) and protected immature and mature T cells from virus-mediated depletion. This activity was observed at plasma concentrations that are achievable in humans after oral dosing, and bevirimat was active up to 3 days after inoculation with both WT HIV-1 and an AZT-resistant HIV-1 clinical isolate. Consistent with its mechanism of action, bevirimat caused a dose-dependent inhibition of capsid-SP1 cleavage in HIV-1-infected human thymocytes obtained from these mice. HIV-1 NL4-3 with an alanine-to-valine substitution at the N-terminus of SP1 (SP1/A1V), which is resistant to bevirimat in vitro, was also resistant to bevirimat treatment in the mice, and SP1/AIV had replication and thymocyte kinetics similar to that of WT NL4-3 with no evidence of fitness impairment in in vivo competition assays. Interestingly, protease inhibitor-resistant HIV-1 with impaired capsid-SP1 cleavage was hypersensitive to bevirimat in vitro with a 50% inhibitory concentration 140 times lower than for WT HIV-1.These results support further clinical development of this first-in-class maturation inhibitor and confirm the usefulness of the SCID-hu Thy/Liv model for evaluation of in vivo antiretroviral efficacy, drug resistance, and viral fitness