Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century

This paper analyzes mean reversion in international stock markets during the period 1900-2008, using annual data. Our panel of stock indexes in seventeen developed countries, covering a time span of more than a century, allows us to analyze in detail the dynamics of the mean-reversion process. In the period 1900-2008 it takes stock prices about 13.8 years, on average, to absorb half of a shock. However, using a rolling-window approach we establish large fluctuations in the speed of mean reversion over time. The highest mean reversion speed is found for the period including the Great Depression and the start of World War II. Furthermore, the early years of the Cold War and the period covering the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Energy Crisis of 1979 and Black Monday in 1987 are also characterized by relatively fast mean reversion. Overall, we document half-lives ranging from a minimum of 2.1 years to a maximum of 23.8 years. In a substantial number of time periods no significant mean reversion is found at all, which underlines the fact that the choice of data sample contributes substantially to the evidence in favor of mean reversion. Our results suggest that the speed at which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high economic uncertainty, caused by major economic and political events.mean reversion, market efficiency

Does multidisciplinary videoconferencing between a head-and-neck cancer centre and its partner hospital add value to their patient care and decision-making? A mixed-method evaluation

Objectives Given the difficulties in diagnosing and treating head-and-neck cancer, care is centralised in the Netherlands in eight head-and-neck cancer centres and six satellite regional hospitals as preferred partners. A requirement is that all patients of the partner should be discussed in a multidisciplinary team meeting (MDT) with the head-and-neck centre as part of a Dutch health policy rule. In this mixed-method study, we evaluate the value that the video-conferenced MDT adds to the MDTs in the care pathway, quantitative regarding recommendations given and qualitative in terms of benefits for the teams and the patient. Design A sequential mixed-method study. Setting One oncology centre and its partner in the Northern part of the Netherlands. Participants Head-and-neck cancer specialists presenting patient cases during video-conferenced MDT over a period of 6 months. Semistructured interviews held with six medical specialists, three from the centre and three from the partner. Primary and secondary outcome measures Percentage of cases in which recommendations were given on diagnostic and/or therapeutic plans during video-conferenced MDT. Results In eight of the 336 patient cases presented (2%), specialists offered recommendations to the collaborating team (three given from centre to partner and five from partner to centre). Recommendations mainly consisted of alternative diagnostic modalities or treatment plans for a specific patient. Interviews revealed that specialists perceive added value in discussing complex cases because the other team offered a fresh perspective by hearing the case 'as new'. The teams recognise the importance of keeping their medical viewpoints aligned, but the requirement (that the partner should discuss all patients) was seen as outdated. Conclusions The added value of the video-conferenced MDT is small considering patient care, but the specialists recognised that it is important to keep their medical viewpoints aligned and that their patients benefit from the discussions on complex cases

Does multidisciplinary videoconferencing between a head-and-neck cancer centre and its partner hospital add value to their patient care and decision-making? A mixed-method evaluation

OBJECTIVES: Given the difficulties in diagnosing and treating head-and-neck cancer, care is centralised in the Netherlands in eight head-and-neck cancer centres and six satellite regional hospitals as preferred partners. A requirement is that all patients of the partner should be discussed in a multidisciplinary team meeting (MDT) with the head-and-neck centre as part of a Dutch health policy rule. In this mixed-method study, we evaluate the value that the video-conferenced MDT adds to the MDTs in the care pathway, quantitative regarding recommendations given and qualitative in terms of benefits for the teams and the patient. DESIGN: A sequential mixed-method study. SETTING: One oncology centre and its partner in the Northern part of the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Head-and-neck cancer specialists presenting patient cases during video-conferenced MDT over a period of 6 months. Semistructured interviews held with six medical specialists, three from the centre and three from the partner. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Percentage of cases in which recommendations were given on diagnostic and/or therapeutic plans during video-conferenced MDT. RESULTS: In eight of the 336 patient cases presented (2%), specialists offered recommendations to the collaborating team (three given from centre to partner and five from partner to centre). Recommendations mainly consisted of alternative diagnostic modalities or treatment plans for a specific patient. Interviews revealed that specialists perceive added value in discussing complex cases because the other team offered a fre

An intracellular pH gradient in the anammox bacterium Kuenenia stuttgartiensis as evaluated by 31P NMR

The cytoplasm of anaerobic ammonium oxidizing (anammox) bacteria consists of three compartments separated by membranes. It has been suggested that a proton motive force may be generated over the membrane of the innermost compartment, the “anammoxosome”. 31P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was employed to investigate intracellular pH differences in the anammox bacterium Kuenenia stuttgartiensis. With in vivo NMR, spectra were recorded of active, highly concentrated suspensions of K. stuttgartiensis in a wide-bore NMR tube. At different external pH values, two stable and distinct phosphate peaks were apparent in the recorded spectra. These peaks were equivalent with pH values of 7.3 and 6.3 and suggested the presence of a proton motive force over an intracytoplasmic membrane in K. stuttgartiensis. This study provides for the second time—after discovery of acidocalcisome-like compartments in Agrobacterium tumefaciens—evidence for an intracytoplasmic pH gradient in a chemotrophic prokaryotic cell

Prognostic significance of MRI-detected extramural venous invasion according to grade and response to neo-adjuvant treatment in locally advanced rectal cancer A national cohort study after radiologic training and reassessment

Background: Detection of grade 3–4 extra mural venous invasion (mrEMVI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is associated with an increased distant metastases (DM)-rate. This study aimed to determine the impact of different grades of mrEMVI and their disappearance after neoadjuvant therapy.Methods: A Dutch national retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted, including patients who underwent resection for rectal cancer in 2016 from 60/69 hospitals performing rectal surgery. Patients with a cT3-4 tumour ≤8 cm from the anorectal junction were selected and their MRI-scans were reassessed by trained abdominal radiologists. Positive mrEMVI grades (3 and 4) were analyzed in regard to 4-year local recurrence (LR), DM, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: The 1213 included patients had a median follow-up of 48 months (IQR 30–54). Positive mrEMVI was present in 324 patients (27%); 161 had grade 3 and 163 had grade 4. A higher mrEMVI stage (grade 4 vs grade 3 vs no mrEMVI) increased LR-risk (21% vs 18% vs 7%, &lt;0.001) and DM-risk (49% vs 30% vs 21%, p &lt; 0.001) and decreased DFS (42% vs 55% vs 69%, p &lt; 0.001) and OS (62% vs 76% vs 81%, p &lt; 0.001), which remained independently associated in multivariable analysis. When mrEMVI had disappeared on restaging MRI, DM-rate was comparable to initial absence of mrEMVI (both 26%), whereas LR-rate remained high (22% vs 9%, p = 0.006). Conclusion: The negative oncological impact of mrEMVI on recurrence and survival rates was dependent on grading. Disappearance of mrEMVI on restaging MRI decreased the risk of DM, but not of LR.</p

Prognostic significance of MRI-detected extramural venous invasion according to grade and response to neo-adjuvant treatment in locally advanced rectal cancer A national cohort study after radiologic training and reassessment

Background: Detection of grade 3–4 extra mural venous invasion (mrEMVI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is associated with an increased distant metastases (DM)-rate. This study aimed to determine the impact of different grades of mrEMVI and their disappearance after neoadjuvant therapy.Methods: A Dutch national retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted, including patients who underwent resection for rectal cancer in 2016 from 60/69 hospitals performing rectal surgery. Patients with a cT3-4 tumour ≤8 cm from the anorectal junction were selected and their MRI-scans were reassessed by trained abdominal radiologists. Positive mrEMVI grades (3 and 4) were analyzed in regard to 4-year local recurrence (LR), DM, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: The 1213 included patients had a median follow-up of 48 months (IQR 30–54). Positive mrEMVI was present in 324 patients (27%); 161 had grade 3 and 163 had grade 4. A higher mrEMVI stage (grade 4 vs grade 3 vs no mrEMVI) increased LR-risk (21% vs 18% vs 7%, &lt;0.001) and DM-risk (49% vs 30% vs 21%, p &lt; 0.001) and decreased DFS (42% vs 55% vs 69%, p &lt; 0.001) and OS (62% vs 76% vs 81%, p &lt; 0.001), which remained independently associated in multivariable analysis. When mrEMVI had disappeared on restaging MRI, DM-rate was comparable to initial absence of mrEMVI (both 26%), whereas LR-rate remained high (22% vs 9%, p = 0.006). Conclusion: The negative oncological impact of mrEMVI on recurrence and survival rates was dependent on grading. Disappearance of mrEMVI on restaging MRI decreased the risk of DM, but not of LR.</p

Prognostic Implications of Lateral Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer:A Population-Based Cross-sectional Study with Standardized Radiological Evaluation after Dedicated Training

BACKGROUND: There is an ongoing discussion regarding the prognostic implications of the presence, short-axis diameter, and location of lateral lymph nodes. OBJECTIVE: To analyze lateral lymph node characteristics, the role of downsizing on restaging MRI, and associated local recurrence rates for patients with cT3-4 rectal cancer after MRI re-review and training. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based cross-sectional study. SETTINGS: This collaborative project was led by local investigators from surgery and radiology departments in 60 Dutch hospitals. PATIENTS: A total of 3057 patients underwent rectal cancer surgery in 2016: 1109 had a cT3-4 tumor located ≤8 cm from the anorectal junction, of whom 891 received neoadjuvant therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Local recurrence and (ipsi) lateral local recurrence rates. RESULTS: Re-review identified 314 patients (35%) with visible lateral lymph nodes. Of these, 30 patients had either only long-stretched obturator (n = 13) or external iliac (n = 17) nodes, and both did not lead to any lateral local recurrences. The presence of internal iliac/obturator lateral lymph nodes (n = 284) resulted in 4-year local recurrence and lateral local recurrence rates of 16.4% and 8.8%, respectively. Enlarged (≥7 mm) lateral lymph nodes (n = 122) resulted in higher 4-year local recurrence (20.8%, 13.1%, 0%; p &lt;.001) and lateral local recurrence (14.7%, 4.4%, 0%; p &lt; 0.001) rates compared to smaller and no lateral lymph nodes, respectively. Visible lateral lymph nodes (HR 1.8 [1.1-2.8]) and enlarged lateral lymph nodes (HR 1.9 [1.1-3.5]) were independently associated with local recurrence in multivariable analysis. Enlarged lateral lymph nodes with malignant features had higher 4-year lateral local recurrence rates of 17.0%. Downsizing had no impact on lateral local recurrence rates. Enlarged lateral lymph nodes were found to be associated with higher univariate 4-year distant metastasis rates (36.4% vs 24.4%; p = 0.021), but this was not significant in multivariable analyses (HR 1.3 [0.9-1.]) and did not worsen overall survival. LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by the retrospective design and total number of patients with lateral lymph nodes. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of lateral local recurrence due to (enlarged) lateral lymph nodes was confirmed, but without the prognostic impact of downsizing after neoadjuvant therapy. These results point toward the incorporation of primary lateral lymph node size into treatment planning. See Video Abstract.</p

Impact of the new rectal cancer definition on multimodality treatment and interhospital variability:Results from a nationwide cross-sectional study

Aim: This study aimed to determine the consequences of the new definition of rectal cancer for decision-making in multidisciplinary team meetings (MDT). The new definition of rectal cancer, the lower border of the tumour is located below the sigmoid take-off (STO), was implemented in the Dutch guideline in 2019 after an international Delphi consensus meeting to reduce interhospital variations. Method: All patients with rectal cancer according to the local MDT, who underwent resection in 2016 in the Netherlands were eligible for this nationwide collaborative cross-sectional study. MRI-images were rereviewed, and the tumours were classified as above or on/below the STO. Results: This study registered 3107 of the eligible 3178 patients (98%), of which 2784 patients had an evaluable MRI. In 314 patients, the tumour was located above the STO (11%), with interhospital variation between 0% and 36%. Based on TN-stage, 175 reclassified patients with colon cancer (6%) would have received different treatment (e.g., omitting neoadjuvant radiotherapy, candidate for adjuvant chemotherapy). Tumour location above the STO was independently associated with lower risk of 4-year locoregional recurrence (HR 0.529; p = 0.030) and higher 4-year overall survival (HR 0.732; p = 0.037) compared to location under the STO. Conclusion: By using the STO, 11% of the prior MDT-based diagnosis of rectal cancer were redefined as sigmoid cancer, with potential implications for multimodality treatment and prognostic value. Given the substantial interhospital variation in proportion of redefined cancers, the use of the STO will contribute to standardisation and comparability of outcomes in both daily practice and trial settings.</p

Evaluation of National Surgical Practice for Lateral Lymph Nodes in Rectal Cancer in an Untrained Setting

Background: Involved lateral lymph nodes (LLNs) have been associated with increased local recurrence (LR) and ipsi-lateral LR (LLR) rates. However, consensus regarding the indication and type of surgical treatment for suspicious LLNs is lacking. This study evaluated the surgical treatment of LLNs in an untrained setting at a national level. Methods: Patients who underwent additional LLN surgery were selected from a national cross-sectional cohort study regarding patients undergoing rectal cancer surgery in 69 Dutch hospitals in 2016. LLN surgery consisted of either ‘node-picking’ (the removal of an individual LLN) or ‘partial regional node dissection’ (PRND; an incomplete resection of the LLN area). For all patients with primarily enlarged (≥7 mm) LLNs, those undergoing rectal surgery with an additional LLN procedure were compared to those undergoing only rectal resection. Results: Out of 3057 patients, 64 underwent additional LLN surgery, with 4-year LR and LLR rates of 26% and 15%, respectively. Forty-eight patients (75%) had enlarged LLNs, with corresponding recurrence rates of 26% and 19%, respectively. Node-picking (n = 40) resulted in a 20% 4-year LLR, and a 14% LLR after PRND (n = 8; p = 0.677). Multivariable analysis of 158 patients with enlarged LLNs undergoing additional LLN surgery (n = 48) or rectal resection alone (n = 110) showed no significant association of LLN surgery with 4-year LR or LLR, but suggested higher recurrence risks after LLN surgery (LR: hazard ratio [HR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7–3.2, p = 0.264; LLR: HR 1.9, 95% CI 0.2–2.5, p = 0.874). Conclusion: Evaluation of Dutch practice in 2016 revealed that approximately one-third of patients with primarily enlarged LLNs underwent surgical treatment, mostly consisting of node-picking. Recurrence rates were not significantly affected by LLN surgery, but did suggest worse outcomes. Outcomes of LLN surgery after adequate training requires further research.</p