Techno-economic evaluation of CO₂-EOR in the North Sea

CO2-EOR is a possible means to produce incremental oil from active oil fields. In the ongoing climate change debate, it is also welcomed as a business case for geological storage of CO2 (CO2 Capture and Storage, CCS). The possibility for applying this technology in the North Sea has been under discussion for several years, but the high cost and financial risk have hampered its deployment until today. Using the techno-economic simulator PSS IV, potential CO2-EOR projects can be evaluated in a realistic way, considering technological, policy-related, economic and geological uncertainties using Monte-Carlo calculations. For the current study, around 450 to 750 MC runs were performed (lower for the Cluster, and depending on the field and scenario), which is considered to produce results in sufficient detail for the current set-up. This number is mainly limited by computing performance. PSS IV includes a unique feature, in that it makes project evaluations considering incomplete information about the future. Next to its standard Monte-Carlo methodology, where stochastic parameter values are changed slightly every calculation, a second level of Monte-Carlo calculations and stochastic parameters are used for creating an outlook towards the future. This methodology is called “limited foresight”, which produces near- optimal investment decisions. This is considered more realistic compared to an optimisation model, where actions are taken based on a perfect forecast of the future. This methodology is combined with Real Options analysis, to include the value of having future project flexibility.CO2-EOR is a possible means to produce incremental oil from active oil fields. In the ongoing climate change debate, it is also welcomed as a business case for geological storage of CO2 (CO2 Capture and Storage, CCS). The possibility for applying this technology in the North Sea has been under discussion for several years, but the high cost and financial risk have hampered its deployment until today. Using the techno-economic simulator PSS IV, potential CO2-EOR projects can be evaluated in a realistic way, considering technological, policy-related, economic and geological uncertainties using Monte-Carlo calculations. For the current study, around 450 to 750 MC runs were performed (lower for the Cluster, and depending on the field and scenario), which is considered to produce results in sufficient detail for the current set-up. This number is mainly limited by computing performance. PSS IV includes a unique feature, in that it makes project evaluations considering incomplete information about the future. Next to its standard Monte-Carlo methodology, where stochastic parameter values are changed slightly every calculation, a second level of Monte-Carlo calculations and stochastic parameters are used for creating an outlook towards the future. This methodology is called “limited foresight”, which produces near- optimal investment decisions. This is considered more realistic compared to an optimisation model, where actions are taken based on a perfect forecast of the future. This methodology is combined with Real Options analysis, to include the value of having future project flexibility

Implementation of the EU CCS Directive in Europe: results and development in 2013

Directive 2009/31/EC of the European Parliament on the geological storage of carbon dioxide, entered into force on June 25th 2009. By the end 2013 the CCS Directive has been fully transposed into national law to the satisfaction of the EC in 20 out of 28 EU Member States, while six EU countries (Austria, Cyprus, Hungary, Ireland, Sweden and Slovenia) had to complete transposing measures. In July 2014 the European Commission closed infringement procedures against Cyprus, Hungary and Ireland, which have notified the EC that they have taken measures to incorporate the CCS Directive into national law. Among other three countries Sweden has updated its legislation and published a new law in their country in March 2014, permitting CO2 storage offshore. The evaluation of the national laws in Poland, which were accepted at national level in November 2013, and Croatia, which entered the EU on 7 July 2013 and simultaneously transposed the CCS directive, is still ongoing in 2014. The first storage permit under the Directive (for the ROAD Project in the offshore Netherlands) has been approved by the EC. While CO2 storage is permitted in a number of European countries, temporary restrictions were applied in Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland. CO2 storage is prohibited except for research and development in Estonia, Finland, Luxembourg, two regions in Belgium and Slovenia due to their geological conditions, but also forbidden in Austraia, Ireland and Latvia. The size of exploration areas for CO2 storage sites is limited in Bulgaria and Hungary. In Germany, only limited CO2 storage will be permitted until 2018 (up to 4 Mt CO2 annually)

Mapping and understanding Earth: Open access to digital geoscience data and knowledge supports societal needs and UN sustainable development goals

Open access to harmonised digital data describing Earth’s surface and subsurface holds immense value for society. This paper highlights the significance of open access to digital geoscience data ranging from the shallow topsoil or seabed to depths of 5 km. Such data play a pivotal role in facilitating endeavours such as renewable geoenergy solutions, resilient urban planning, supply of critical raw materials, assessment and protection of water resources, mitigation of floods and droughts, identification of suitable locations for carbon capture and storage, development of offshore wind farms, disaster risk reduction, and conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. EuroGeoSurveys, the Geological Surveys of Europe, have worked diligently for over a decade to ensure open access to harmonised digital European geoscience data and knowledge through the European Geological Data Infrastructure (EGDI). EGDI acts as a data and information resource for providing wide-ranging geoscience data and research, as this paper demonstrates through selected research data and information on four vital natural resources: geoenergy, critical raw materials, water, and soils. Importantly, it incorporates near real-time remote and in-situ monitoring data, thus constituting an invaluable up-to-date database that facilitates informed decision-making, policy implementation, sustainable resource management, the green transition, achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the envisioned future of digital twins in Earth sciences. EGDI and its thematic map viewer are tailored, continuously enhanced, and developed in collaboration with all relevant researchers and stakeholders. Its primary objective is to address societal needs by providing data for sustainable, secure, and integrated management of surface and subsurface resources, effectively establishing a geological service for Europe. We argue that open access to surface and subsurface geoscience data is crucial for an efficient green transition to a net-zero society, enabling integrated and coherent surface and subsurface spatial planning

Earth sciences at the centre of the energy transition

Achieving a successful energy transition requires society to deploy as many technologies as possible, rather than relying on one single technology to be the ‘magic bullet’. However, there are characteristics that make this transition more challenging than previous transitions in terms of its scope. These challenges include the wide range of sustainable technologies involved and the time constraints. For this research the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen technologies for the decarbonization process was analysed, including the main challenges that their large-scale implementation is facing from a subsurface perspective. The ongoing role that fossil fuels play, as well as how the hydrocarbon industry can facilitate the current transition, must also be considered. The common denominator in the analysis is the critical position of Earth sciences in discovering, characterizing, and sustainably utilizing subsurface resources. Geoscientists are essential for providing communication and cooperation between scientists and stakeholders who use, manage and preserve the subsurface. The success of CO2 and hydrogen storage, as part of the climate change mitigation strategies, and the eventual phase-out of fossil fuels ultimately depends on the sustainable development of the subsurface

Economic threshold of CO2-EOR and CO2 storage in the North Sea: A case study of the Claymore, Scott and Buzzard oil fields

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd CO2-enhanced oil recovery in the North Sea can provide additional oil revenues, prolong the productive lifetime of oil fields, and potentially catalyse the large-scale deployment of CO2 geological storage. Under the current low oil prices, around and below 50 €/bbl, the investment is more difficult to justify. Here we show three case studies for the Claymore, Scott and Buzzard fields offshore of Scotland. A techno-economic assessment is made with the PSS IV simulator considering a low oil price scenario, market uncertainties and geological uncertainty. Stochastic parameters and project flexibility are used to simulate realistic project decisions. The Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) is introduced as a performance indicator in combination with hurdle rate scenarios of 10, 11 and 12% for risk compensation. The possibility of continuing the storage of CO2 after oil production has stopped is considered, and reservoir uncertainty is introduced as stochastic parameters defining the EOR production profile. In terms of total value and development probability, the Buzzard field has the highest potential for a successful CO2-EOR project in all of the simulated scenarios, followed by Claymore and Scott. When compensating for field size, the Buzzard field still has the highest value per barrel of additionally produced oil, but the Scott field has a higher efficiency compared to Claymore. With an increase of the hurdle rate, the probability on investment in CO2-EOR decreases, but the probability on a profitable project increases. It also becomes more likely that if an EOR project is started, it will be followed by a CO2 storage phase. A hurdle rate of 12% even completely offsets the financial risk under the simulated conditions.status: publishe

A profitability study of CO2-EOR and subsequent CO2 storage in the North Sea under low oil market prices

© 2017 The Authors. A wide-scale application of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in North Sea oil fields can have many advantages, especially when followed by CO2geological storage. Under the current low oil prices though, even maintaining basic oil production is challenging. A techno-economic assessment is made of the Claymore oil field with the PSS IV simulator, focusing on uncertainty and investment risk. For a stochastic oil price ranging between 10 and 70 €/bbl, a stochastic CO2revenue of -10 to 70 €/t and stochastic reservoir parameters, an average NPV of almost 500 M€ is obtained with a 73% chance on a positive NPV if the investment is made. Disregarding uncertainty relating to the underground by fixing the stochastic reservoir parameters, leads remarkably, but also erroneously, to a lower average NPV. Results also show that geological uncertainty is an important factor for determining the economic threshold level of an EOR project, and a proper assessment of the real uncertainties can make the difference between profit and loss. In case of assuming a fixed CO2revenue at 30 €/t, the probability of implementing EOR becomes higher, but the average NPV and project success rate are significantly lower, at 300 M€ and 63% respectively. This demonstrates that a fixed CO2tax is not a generic CGS enabling solution. It not well-weighted, it can hamper the deployment of certain technologies. A phase of CO2geological storage (CGS) after oil production becomes economically interesting from a CO2revenue of 17€/t. If such a price level can be guaranteed, then continuation of CO2injection can reduce investment risk for both the EOR and CGS investment, reduces the investment hurdle, and can be a catalyzer for large-scale and widespread CO2storage in Europe.status: publishe

A review of the geology and origin of CO2 in mineral water springs in east Belgium

Naturally CO2-rich mineral water springs (pouhons) in east Belgium occur in the context of the Rhenohercynian domain of the Variscan fold-and-thrust belt, mostly within the Cambro-Ordovician Stavelot-Venn Massif. The origin of the CO2 is still unclear, although different hypotheses exist. In this review study, we show pouhon waters are of the calcium bicarbonate type (~310 mg/l HCO3- on average), with notable Fe (~15 mg/l) and some Ca (~43 mg/l). Pouhon waters are primarily meteoric waters, as evidenced by H and O isotopic signature. The δ13C of CO2 varies from -7.8 to +0.8‰ and contains up to ~15% He from magmatic origin, reflecting a combination of carbonate rocks and mantle as CO2 sources at depth. Dinantian and Middle Devonian carbonates at 2–6 km depth could be potential sources, with CO2 generated by dissolution. However, carbonates below the Stavelot-Venn Massif are only predicted by structural models that assume in-sequence thrusting, not by the more generally accepted out-of-sequence thrust models. The mantle CO2 might originate from degassing of the Eifel magmatic plume or an unknown shallower magmatic reservoir. Deep rooted faults are thought to act as preferential pathways. Overall low temperatures of pouhons (~10 °C) and short estimated residence times (up to 60 years) suggest magmatic CO2 is transported upwards to meet infiltrating groundwater at shallower depths, with partial to full isotopic exchange with carbonate rocks along its path, resulting in mixed magmatic-carbonate signature. Although the precise role and interaction of the involved subsurface processes remains debatable, this review study provides a baseline for future investigations.ROSEAU - Doctorat en entrepris