Coherent predictive probabilities

The main aim of this thesis is to study ways of predicting the outcome of a vector of category counts from a particular group, in the presence of like data from other groups regarded exchangeably with this one and with each other. The situation is formulated using the subjectivist framework and strategies for estimating these predictive probabilities are presented and analysed with regard to their coherency. The range of estimation procedures considered covers naive, empirical Bayes and hierarchical Bayesian methods. Surprisingly, it turns out that some of these strategies must be asserted with zero probability of being used, in order for them to be coherent. A theory is developed which proves to be very useful in determining whether or not this is the case for a given collection of predictive probabilities. The conclusion is that truly Bayesian inference may lie behind all of the coherent strategies discovered, even when they are proposed under the guise of some other motivation

The Influence of the VERB Campaign on Children's Physical Activity in 2002 to 2006

Objectives. We evaluated physical activity outcomes for children exposed to VERB, a campaign to encourage physical activity in children, across campaign years 2002 to 2006

Effects of the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign on Youths

Objectives. We examined the cognitive and behavioral effects of the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign on youths aged 12.5 to 18 years and report core evaluation results

Design and methods of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

BackgroundThis paper describes the methods and conceptual framework for Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collection. The National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is partnering with the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products to conduct the PATH Study under a contract with Westat.MethodsThe PATH Study is a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of 45 971 adults and youth in the USA, aged 12 years and older. Wave 1 was conducted from 12 September 2013 to 15 December 2014 using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing to collect information on tobacco-use patterns, risk perceptions and attitudes towards current and newly emerging tobacco products, tobacco initiation, cessation, relapse behaviours and health outcomes. The PATH Study's design allows for the longitudinal assessment of patterns of use of a spectrum of tobacco products, including initiation, cessation, relapse and transitions between products, as well as factors associated with use patterns. Additionally, the PATH Study collects biospecimens from consenting adults aged 18 years and older and measures biomarkers of exposure and potential harm related to tobacco use.ConclusionsThe cumulative, population-based data generated over time by the PATH Study will contribute to the evidence base to inform FDA's regulatory mission under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act and efforts to reduce the Nation's burden of tobacco-related death and disease

Design and methods of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

BackgroundThis paper describes the methods and conceptual framework for Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collection. The National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is partnering with the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products to conduct the PATH Study under a contract with Westat.MethodsThe PATH Study is a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of 45 971 adults and youth in the USA, aged 12 years and older. Wave 1 was conducted from 12 September 2013 to 15 December 2014 using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing to collect information on tobacco-use patterns, risk perceptions and attitudes towards current and newly emerging tobacco products, tobacco initiation, cessation, relapse behaviours and health outcomes. The PATH Study's design allows for the longitudinal assessment of patterns of use of a spectrum of tobacco products, including initiation, cessation, relapse and transitions between products, as well as factors associated with use patterns. Additionally, the PATH Study collects biospecimens from consenting adults aged 18 years and older and measures biomarkers of exposure and potential harm related to tobacco use.ConclusionsThe cumulative, population-based data generated over time by the PATH Study will contribute to the evidence base to inform FDA's regulatory mission under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act and efforts to reduce the Nation's burden of tobacco-related death and disease