Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea

Introduction: Seabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. Methods: Using a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. Results: The best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). Discussion: Our results indicated that pelagic shearwaters (Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy

The Phosphatidylinositol 3,4,5-trisphosphate (PI(3,4,5)P 3 ) Binder Rasa3 Regulates Phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)-dependent Integrin α IIb β 3 Outside-in Signaling

The class I PI3K family of lipid kinases plays an important role in integrin αIIbβ3 function, thereby supporting thrombus growth and consolidation. Here, we identify Ras/Rap1GAP Rasa3 (GAP1IP4BP) as a major phosphatidylinositol 3,4,5-trisphosphate-binding protein in human platelets and a key regulator of integrin αIIbβ3 outside-in signaling. We demonstrate that cytosolic Rasa3 translocates to the plasma membrane in a PI3K-dependent manner upon activation of human platelets. Expression of wild-type Rasa3 in integrin αIIbβ3-expressing CHO cells blocked Rap1 activity and integrin αIIbβ3-mediated spreading on fibrinogen. In contrast, Rap1GAP-deficient (P489V) and Ras/Rap1GAP-deficient (R371Q) Rasa3 had no effect. We furthermore show that two Rasa3 mutants (H794L and G125V), which are expressed in different mouse models of thrombocytopenia, lack both Ras and Rap1GAP activity and do not affect integrin αIIbβ3-mediated spreading of CHO cells on fibrinogen. Platelets from thrombocytopenic mice expressing GAP-deficient Rasa3 (H794L) show increased spreading on fibrinogen, which in contrast to wild-type platelets is insensitive to PI3K inhibitors. Together, these results support an important role for Rasa3 in PI3K-dependent integrin αIIbβ3-mediated outside-in signaling and cell spreading

Designing a multifaceted quality improvement intervention in primary care in a country where general practice is seeking recognition: the case of Cyprus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quality Improvement Interventions require significant financial investments, and therefore demand careful consideration in their design in order to maximize potential benefits. In this correspondence we present the methodological approach of a multifaceted quality improvement intervention aiming to improve quality of care in primary care, properly tailored for a country such as Cyprus where general practice is currently seeking recognition.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our methodological approach was focused on the design of an open label, community-based intervention controlled trial using all patients from two urban and two rural public primary care centers diagnosed with hypertension and type II diabetes mellitus. The design of our intervention was grounded on a strong theoretical framework that included the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology, and the Chronic Care Model, which synthesize evidence-based system changes in accordance with the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Theory of Reasoned Action. The primary outcome measure was improvement in the quality of care for two chronic diseases evaluated through specific clinical indicators, as well as the patient satisfaction assessed by the EUROPEP questionnaire and additional personal interviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We designed a multifaceted quality improvement intervention model, supported by a varying degree of scientific evidence, tailored to local needs and specific country characteristics. Overall, the main components of the intervention were the development and adoption of an electronic medical record and the introduction of clinical guidelines for the management of the targeted chronic diseases facilitated by the necessary model of organizational changes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Health planners and policy makers need to be aware of the potential use of certain theoretical models and applied methodology as well as inexpensive tools that may be suitably tailored to the local needs, in order to effectively design quality improvement interventions in primary care settings.</p

Developmental Exposure to a Toxic Spill Compromises Long-Term Reproductive Performance in a Wild, Long-Lived Bird: The White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

Background/Objective: Exposure to environmental contaminants may result in reduced reproductive success and long- lasting population declines in vertebrates. Emerging data from laboratory studies on model species suggest that certain life- stages, such as development, should be of special concern. However, detailed investigations of long-term consequences of developmental exposure to environmental chemicals on breeding performance are currently lacking in wild populations of long-lived vertebrates. Here, we studied how the developmental exposure to a mine spill (Aznalco´ llar, SW Spain, April 1998) may affect fitness under natural conditions in a long-lived bird, the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia). Methodology: The reproductive performance of individually-banded storks that were or not developmentally exposed to the spill (i.e. hatched before or after the spill) was compared when these individuals were simultaneously breeding during the seven years after the spill occurred (1999–2005). Principal Findings: Female storks developmentally exposed to the spill experienced a premature breeding senescence compared with their non-developmentally exposed counterparts, doing so after departing from an unusually higher productivity in their early reproductive life (non-developmentally exposed females: 0.560.33SE fledglings/year at 3-yr old vs. 1.3860.31SE at 6–7 yr old; developmentally exposed females: 1.560.30SE fledglings/year at 3-yr old vs. 0.8660.25SE at 6– 7 yr old). Conclusions/Significance: Following life-history theory, we propose that costly sub-lethal effects reported in stork nestlings after low-level exposure to the spill-derived contaminants might play an important role in shaping this pattern of reproduction, with a clear potential impact on population dynamics. Overall, our study provides evidence that environmental disasters can have long-term, multigenerational consequences on wildlife, particularly when affecting developing individuals, and warns about the risk of widespread low-level contamination in realistic scenarios.Peer reviewe

Demographics of extra-articular calcaneal fractures: Including a review of the literature on treatment and outcome

Introduction: Extra-articular calcaneal fractures represent 25-40% of all calcaneal fractures and an even higher percentage of up to 60% is seen in children. A disproportionately small part of the literature on calcaneal fractures involves the extra-articular type. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of extra-articular calcaneal fractures in a Level 1 trauma centre, define the distribution of the various types of fractures and compare patient demographics between extra- and intra-articular calcaneal fractures. In addition the literature was reviewed for the most common types of extra-articular calcaneal fractures with regard to incidence, treatment and clinical outcome. Methods: The radiological records between 2003 and 2005 were reviewed for intra- and extra-articular calcaneal fractures. Patient gender-distribution and age were compared. A literature search was conducted for the treatment of extra-articular calcaneal fractures. Results: In this 3-year study period a total of 49 patients with 50 extra-articular calcaneal fractures and 91 patients with 101 intra-articular fractures were identified. The median age for the first group was 32.7 years, and for the second group 40.3 years; P = 0.04. Male predominance was significantly less pronounced for extra-articular (63%) compared with intra-articular fractures (79%; P = 0.04). Conclusion: One-third of all calcaneal fractures are extra-articular. Significant differences exist between the intra- and extra-articular groups, in terms of lower age and male-female ratio. The literature study shows inconsistencies in treatment options, but most extra-articular fractures are well manageable conservatively

A Conceptual Model of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers and Their Influence on the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Ecosystem

Prince William Sound (PWS) is a semi-enclosed fjord estuary on the coast of Alaska adjoining the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA). PWS is highly productive and diverse, with primary productivity strongly coupled to nutrient dynamics driven by variability in the climate and oceanography of the GOA and North Pacific Ocean. The pelagic and nearshore primary productivity supports a complex and diverse trophic structure, including large populations of forage and large fish that support many species of marine birds and mammals. High intra-annual, inter-annual, and interdecadal variability in climatic and oceanographic processes as drives high variability in the biological populations. A risk-based conceptual ecosystem model (CEM) is presented describing the natural processes, anthropogenic drivers, and resultant stressors that affect PWS, including stressors caused by the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964 and the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989. A trophodynamic model incorporating PWS valued ecosystem components is integrated into the CEM. By representing the relative strengths of driver/stressors/effects, the CEM graphically demonstrates the fundamental dynamics of the PWS ecosystem, the natural forces that control the ecological condition of the Sound, and the relative contribution of natural processes and human activities to the health of the ecosystem. The CEM illustrates the dominance of natural processes in shaping the structure and functioning of the GOA and PWS ecosystems

The effects of spatially heterogeneous prey distributions on detection patterns in foraging seabirds

Many attempts to relate animal foraging patterns to landscape heterogeneity are focused on the analysis of foragers movements. Resource detection patterns in space and time are not commonly studied, yet they are tightly coupled to landscape properties and add relevant information on foraging behavior. By exploring simple foraging models in unpredictable environments we show that the distribution of intervals between detected prey (detection statistics)is mostly determined by the spatial structure of the prey field and essentially distinct from predator displacement statistics. Detections are expected to be Poissonian in uniform random environments for markedly different foraging movements (e.g. L\'evy and ballistic). This prediction is supported by data on the time intervals between diving events on short-range foraging seabirds such as the thick-billed murre ({\it Uria lomvia}). However, Poissonian detection statistics is not observed in long-range seabirds such as the wandering albatross ({\it Diomedea exulans}) due to the fractal nature of the prey field, covering a wide range of spatial scales. For this scenario, models of fractal prey fields induce non-Poissonian patterns of detection in good agreement with two albatross data sets. We find that the specific shape of the distribution of time intervals between prey detection is mainly driven by meso and submeso-scale landscape structures and depends little on the forager strategy or behavioral responses.Comment: Submitted first to PLoS-ONE on 26/9/2011. Final version published on 14/04/201