Estimating logged-over lowland rainforest aboveground biomass in Sabah, Malaysia using airborne LiDAR data

Unprecedented deforestation and forest degradation in recent decades have severely depleted the carbon storage in Borneo. Estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) with high accuracy is crucial to quantifying carbon stocks for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation-plus implementation (REDD+). Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is a promising remote sensing technology that provides fine-scale forest structure variability data. This paper highlights the use of airborne LiDAR data for estimating the AGB of a logged-over tropical forest in Sabah, Malaysia. The LiDAR data was acquired using an Optech Orion C200 sensor onboard a fixed wing aircraft. The canopy height of each LiDAR point was calculated from the height difference between the first returns and the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) constructed from the ground points. Among the obtained LiDAR height metrics, the mean canopy height produced the strongest relationship with the observed AGB. This single-variable model had a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 80.02 t ha-1 or 22.31% of the mean AGB, which performed exceptionally when compared with recent tropical rainforest studies. Overall, airborne LiDAR did provide fine-scale canopy height measurements for accurately and reliably estimating the AGB in a logged-over forest in Sabah, thus supporting the state's effort in realizing the REDD+ mechanism

Quantum Physics and Human Language

Human languages employ constructions that tacitly assume specific properties of the limited range of phenomena they evolved to describe. These assumed properties are true features of that limited context, but may not be general or precise properties of all the physical situations allowed by fundamental physics. In brief, human languages contain `excess baggage' that must be qualified, discarded, or otherwise reformed to give a clear account in the context of fundamental physics of even the everyday phenomena that the languages evolved to describe. The surest route to clarity is to express the constructions of human languages in the language of fundamental physical theory, not the other way around. These ideas are illustrated by an analysis of the verb `to happen' and the word `reality' in special relativity and the modern quantum mechanics of closed systems.Comment: Contribution to the festschrift for G.C. Ghirardi on his 70th Birthday, minor correction

Improving Risk Predictions by Preprocessing Imbalanced Credit Data

Imbalanced credit data sets refer to databases in which the class of defaulters is heavily under-represented in comparison to the class of non-defaulters. This is a very common situation in real-life credit scoring applications, but it has still received little attention. This paper investigates whether data resampling can be used to improve the performance of learners built from imbalanced credit data sets, and whether the effectiveness of resampling is related to the type of classifier. Experimental results demonstrate that learning with the resampled sets consistently outperforms the use of the original imbalanced credit data, independently of the classifier used

First detection of a Vssc allele V1016G conferring a high level of insecticide resistance in Aedes albopictus collected from Europe (Italy) and Asia (Vietnam), 2016. A new emerging threat to controlling arboviral diseases

Introduction Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is an important vector of arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus disease. Monitoring insecticide resistance and mechanisms by which the mosquito develops resistance is crucial to minimise disease transmission. Aim To determine insecticide resistance status and mechanisms in Ae. albopictus from different geographical regions. Methods We sampled 33 populations of Ae. albopictus from Asia, Europe and South America, and tested these for susceptibility to permethrin, a pyrethroid insecticide. In resistant populations, the target site for pyrethroids, a voltage-sensitive sodium channel (Vssc) was genotyped. Three resistant sub-strains, each harbouring a resistance allele homozygously, were established and susceptibilities to three different pyrethroids (with and without a cytochrome P450 inhibitor) were assayed. Results Most populations of Ae. albopictus tested were highly susceptible to permethrin but a few from Italy and Vietnam (4/33), exhibited high-level resistance. Genotyping studies detected a knockdown resistance (kdr) allele V1016G in Vssc for the first time in Ae. albopictus. Two previously reported kdr alleles, F1534C and F1534S, were also detected. The bioassays indicated that the strain homozygous for the V1016G allele showed much greater levels of pyrethroid resistance than other strains harbouring F1534C or F1534S. Conclusion The V1016G allele was detected in bothAsian and Italian Ae. albopictus populations, thus a spread of this allele beyond Italy in Europe cannot be ruled out. This study emphasises the necessity to frequently and regularly monitor the V1016G allele in Ae. albopictus, particularly where this mosquito species is the main vector of arboviruses

Social sciences research in neglected tropical diseases 2: A bibliographic analysis

The official published version of the article can be found at the link below.Background There are strong arguments for social science and interdisciplinary research in the neglected tropical diseases. These diseases represent a rich and dynamic interplay between vector, host, and pathogen which occurs within social, physical and biological contexts. The overwhelming sense, however, is that neglected tropical diseases research is a biomedical endeavour largely excluding the social sciences. The purpose of this review is to provide a baseline for discussing the quantum and nature of the science that is being conducted, and the extent to which the social sciences are a part of that. Methods A bibliographic analysis was conducted of neglected tropical diseases related research papers published over the past 10 years in biomedical and social sciences. The analysis had textual and bibliometric facets, and focussed on chikungunya, dengue, visceral leishmaniasis, and onchocerciasis. Results There is substantial variation in the number of publications associated with each disease. The proportion of the research that is social science based appears remarkably consistent (<4%). A textual analysis, however, reveals a degree of misclassification by the abstracting service where a surprising proportion of the "social sciences" research was pure clinical research. Much of the social sciences research also tends to be "hand maiden" research focused on the implementation of biomedical solutions. Conclusion There is little evidence that scientists pay any attention to the complex social, cultural, biological, and environmental dynamic involved in human pathogenesis. There is little investigator driven social science and a poor presence of interdisciplinary science. The research needs more sophisticated funders and priority setters who are not beguiled by uncritical biomedical promises

Larvicidal effects of Chinaberry (Melia azederach) powder on Anopheles arabiensis in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Synthetic insecticides are employed in the widely-used currently favored malaria control techniques involving indoor residual spraying and treated bednets. These methods have repeatedly proven to be highly effective at reducing malaria incidence and prevalence. However, rapidly emerging mosquito resistance to the chemicals and logistical problems in transporting supplies to remote locations threaten the long-term sustainability of these techniques. Chinaberry (<it>Melia azederach</it>) extracts have been shown to be effective growth-inhibiting larvicides against several insects. Because several active chemicals in the trees' seeds have insecticidal properties, the emergence of resistance is unlikely. Here, we investigate the feasibility of Chinaberry as a locally available, low-cost sustainable insecticide that can aid in controlling malaria. Chinaberry fruits were collected from Asendabo, Ethiopia. The seeds were removed from the fruits, dried and crushed into a powder. From developmental habitats in the same village, <it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>larvae were collected and placed into laboratory containers. Chinaberry seed powder was added to the larval containers at three treatment levels: 5 g m^-2, 10 g m^-2and 20 g m^-2, with 100 individual larvae in each treatment level and a control. The containers were monitored daily and larvae, pupae and adult mosquitoes were counted. This experimental procedure was replicated three times.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Chinaberry seed powder caused an inhibition of emergence of 93% at the 5 g m^-2treatment level, and 100% inhibition of emergence at the two higher treatment levels. The Chinaberry had a highly statistically significant larvicidal effect at all treatment levels (χ²= 184, 184, and 155 for 5 g m^-2, 10 g m^-2and 20 g m^-2, respectively; p < 0.0001 in all cases). In addition, estimates suggest that sufficient Chinaberry seed exists in Asendabo to treat developmental habitat for the duration of the rainy season and support a field trial.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Chinaberry seed is a very potent growth-inhibiting larvicide against the major African malaria vector <it>An. arabiensis</it>. The seed could provide a sustainable additional malaria vector control tool that can be used where the tree is abundant and where <it>An. arabiensis </it>is a dominant vector. Based on these results, a future village-scale field trial using the technique is warranted.</p

Economic Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Strategies in Singapore

BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines

Diagnostic and prognostic value of procalcitonin among febrile critically ill patients with prolonged ICU stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Procalcitonin (PCT) has been proposed as a diagnostic and prognostic sepsis marker, but has never been validated in febrile patients with prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients were included in the study provided they were hospitalised in the ICU for > 10 days, were free of infection and presented a new episode of SIRS, with fever >38°C being obligatory. Fifty patients fulfilled the above criteria. PCT was measured daily during the ICU stay. The primary outcome was proven infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-seven out of 50 patients were diagnosed with infection. Median PCT on the day of fever was 1.18 and 0.17 ng/ml for patients with and without proven infections (p < 0.001). The area under the curve for PCT was 0.85 (95% CI; 0.71-0.93), for CRP 0.65 (0.46-0.78) and for WBC 0.68 (0.49-0.81). A PCT level of 1 ng/mL yielded a negative predictive value of 72% for the presence of infection, while a PCT of 1.16 had a specificity of 100%. A two-fold increase of PCT between fever onset and the previous day was associated with proven infection (p 0.001) (OR = 8.55; 2.4-31.1), whereas a four-fold increase of PCT of any of the 6 preceding days was associated with a positive predictive value exceeding 69.65%. A PCT value less than 0.5 ng/ml on the third day after the advent of fever was associated with favorable survival (p 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The reported data support that serial serum PCT may be a valuable diagnostic and prognostic marker in febrile chronic critically ill patients.</p