Predictors of survival in a cohort of patients with polymyositis and dermatomyositis: effect of corticosteroids, methotrexate and azathioprine

Introduction: The idiopathic inflammatory myopathies are rare diseases for which data regarding the natural history, response to therapies and factors affecting mortality are needed. We performed this study to examine the effects of treatment and clinical features on survival in polymyositis and dermatomyositis patients. Methods: A total of 160 consecutive patients (77 with polymyositis and 83 with dermatomyositis) seen at the University of Michigan from 1997 to 2003 were included. Medical records were abstracted for clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data, including initial steroid regimen and immunosuppressive use. State vital records were utilized to derive mortality and cause of death data. Survival was modeled by left-truncated Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression. Results: The 5- and 10-year survival estimates were 77% (95% CI = 66 to 85), and 62% (95% CI = 48 to 73), respectively, and the rates were similar for polymyositis and dermatomyositis. Survival between the sexes was similar through 5 years and significantly lower thereafter for males (10-year survival: 18% male, 73% female; P = 0.002 for 5- to 10-year interval). The sex disparity was restricted to the polymyositis group. Increased age at diagnosis and non-Caucasian race were associated with lower survival. Intravenous versus oral corticosteroid use was associated with a higher risk of death among Caucasians (HR = 10.6, 95% CI = 2.1 to 52.8). Early survival between patients treated with methotrexate versus azathioprine was similar, but survival at 10 years was higher for the methotrexate-treated group (76% vs 52%, P = 0.046 for 5- to 10-year interval). Conclusions: Patients treated initially with intravenous corticosteroids had higher mortality, which was likely related to disease severity. Both methotrexate and azathioprine showed similar early survival benefits as first-line immunosuppressive drugs. Survival was higher between 5 and 10 years in the methotrexate-treated group, but could not be confirmed in multivariable modeling for the full follow-up period. Other important predictors of longterm survival included younger age, female sex and Caucasian race.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90025/1/IIM_ART2012.pdf1611

Predictors of survival in a cohort of patients with polymyositis and dermatomyositis: effect of corticosteroids, methotrexate and azathioprine

Abstract Introduction The idiopathic inflammatory myopathies are rare diseases for which data regarding the natural history, response to therapies and factors affecting mortality are needed. We performed this study to examine the effects of treatment and clinical features on survival in polymyositis and dermatomyositis patients. Methods A total of 160 consecutive patients (77 with polymyositis and 83 with dermatomyositis) seen at the University of Michigan from 1997 to 2003 were included. Medical records were abstracted for clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data, including initial steroid regimen and immunosuppressive use. State vital records were utilized to derive mortality and cause of death data. Survival was modeled by left-truncated Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression. Results The 5- and 10-year survival estimates were 77% (95% CI = 66 to 85), and 62% (95% CI = 48 to 73), respectively, and the rates were similar for polymyositis and dermatomyositis. Survival between the sexes was similar through 5 years and significantly lower thereafter for males (10-year survival: 18% male, 73% female; P = 0.002 for 5- to 10-year interval). The sex disparity was restricted to the polymyositis group. Increased age at diagnosis and non-Caucasian race were associated with lower survival. Intravenous versus oral corticosteroid use was associated with a higher risk of death among Caucasians (HR = 10.6, 95% CI = 2.1 to 52.8). Early survival between patients treated with methotrexate versus azathioprine was similar, but survival at 10 years was higher for the methotrexate-treated group (76% vs 52%, P = 0.046 for 5- to 10-year interval). Conclusions Patients treated initially with intravenous corticosteroids had higher mortality, which was likely related to disease severity. Both methotrexate and azathioprine showed similar early survival benefits as first-line immunosuppressive drugs. Survival was higher between 5 and 10 years in the methotrexate-treated group, but could not be confirmed in multivariable modeling for the full follow-up period. Other important predictors of long-term survival included younger age, female sex and Caucasian race.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112905/1/13075_2011_Article_3467.pd

Impacts of rising sea temperatures on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future

Short Communications: First tracking of individual American Robins (Turdus migratorius) across seasons

The American Robin (Turdus migratorius) is one of the most widespread, common bird species in North America; yet, very little is known about its migratory connectivity, migration timing, and migratory routes. Using archival GPS tags, we tracked the movements of 7 individual robins from 3 breeding populations in the United States. Four robins captured in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, overwintered in Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Montana, up to 4,500 km from the capture location. One robin captured in Amherst, Massachusetts, overwintered in South Carolina 1,210 km from the capture location, whereas 2 robins captured in Washington, D.C., spent the entire year within 6 km of their original capture location. Understanding the annual cycle and differences in migration strategies for a species that exhibits large regional variation in movement has the potential to provide novel insights into how conspecific populations respond to current and future heterogeneity in climate and habitat. The regionspecific patterns presented here suggest robins could serve as sentinels of environmental change at a continental scale

Role of the mesoamygdaloid dopamine projection in emotional learning

Amygdala dopamine is crucially involved in the acquisition of Pavlovian associations, as measured via conditioned approach to the location of the unconditioned stimulus (US). However, learning begins before skeletomotor output, so this study assessed whether amygdala dopamine is also involved in earlier 'emotional' learning. A variant of the conditioned reinforcement (CR) procedure was validated where training was restricted to curtail the development of selective conditioned approach to the US location, and effects of amygdala dopamine manipulations before training or later CR testing assessed. Experiment 1a presented a light paired (CS+ group) or unpaired (CS- group) with a US. There were 1, 2 or 10 sessions, 4 trials per session. Then, the US was removed, and two novel levers presented. One lever (CR+) presented the light, and lever pressing was recorded. Experiment 1b also included a tone stimulus. Experiment 2 applied intra-amygdala R(+) 7-OH-DPAT (10 nmol/1.0 A mu l/side) before two training sessions (Experiment 2a) or a CR session (Experiment 2b). For Experiments 1a and 1b, the CS+ group preferred the CR+ lever across all sessions. Conditioned alcove approach during 1 or 2 training sessions or associated CR tests was low and nonspecific. In Experiment 2a, R(+) 7-OH-DPAT before training greatly diminished lever pressing during a subsequent CR test, preferentially on the CR+ lever. For Experiment 2b, R(+) 7-OH-DPAT infusions before the CR test also reduced lever pressing. Manipulations of amygdala dopamine impact the earliest stage of learning in which emotional reactions may be most prevalent

Swimming Against the Flow: Environmental DNA Can Detect Bull Sharks (\u3ci\u3eCarcharhinus leucas\u3c/i\u3e) Across a Dynamic Deltaic Interface

© 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Human activities in coastal areas are accelerating ecosystem changes at an unprecedented pace, resulting in habitat loss, hydrological modifications, and predatory species declines. Understanding how these changes potentially cascade across marine and freshwater ecosystems requires knowing how mobile euryhaline species link these seemingly disparate systems. As upper trophic level predators, bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) play a crucial role in marine and freshwater ecosystem health. Telemetry studies in Mobile Bay, Alabama, suggest that bull sharks extensively use the northern portions of the bay, an estuarine–freshwater interface known as the Mobile-Tensaw Delta. To assess whether bull sharks use freshwater habitats in this region, environmental DNA surveys were conducted during the dry summer and wet winter seasons in 2018. In each season, 5 × 1 L water samples were collected at each of 21 sites: five sites in Mobile Bay, six sites in the Mobile-Tensaw Delta, and ten sites throughout the Mobile-Tombigbee and Tensaw-Alabama Rivers. Water samples were vacuum-filtered, DNA extractions were performed on the particulate, and DNA extracts were analyzed with Droplet Digital™ Polymerase Chain Reaction using species-specific primers and an internal probe to amplify a 237-base pair fragment of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene in bull sharks. One water sample collected during the summer in the Alabama River met the criteria for a positive detection, thereby confirming the presence of bull shark DNA. While preliminary, this finding suggests that bull sharks use less-urbanized, riverine habitats up to 120 km upriver during Alabama\u27s dry summer season