Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

WA-RD 772.

Guidelines for constructing climate scenarios

Scientists and others from academia, government, and the private sector increasingly are using climate model outputs in research and decision support. For the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 18 global modeling centers contributed outputs from hundreds of simulations, coordinated through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), to the archive at the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI; http://pcmdi3.llnl.gov) [Meehl et al., 2007]. Many users of climate model outputs prefer downscaled data—i.e., data at higher spatial resolution—to direct global climate model (GCM) outputs; downscaling can be statistical [e.g., Meehl et al., 2007] or dynamical [e.g., Mearns et al., 2009]. More than 800 users have obtained downscaled CMIP3 results from one such Web site alone (see http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled cmip3_projections/, described by Meehl et al., [2007])

Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

Observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Pacific Northwest are examined and compared with variability and trends in temperature and precipitation at nearby climate stations. At most locations, especially below about 1800 m, substantial declines in SWE coincide with significant increases in temperature, and occur in spite of increases in precipitation

Landscape-Scale Conservation And Management Of Montane Wildlife: Contemporary Climate May Be Changing The Rules

Both paleontological and contemporary results have suggested that montane ecosystems to be systems of relatively rapid faunal change compared to many valley-bottom counterparts. In addition to experiencing greater magnitudes of contemporary change in climatic parameters than species in other ecosystems, mountain-dwelling wildlife must also accommodate often greater intra-annual swings in temperature and wind speeds, poorly developed soils, and generally harsher conditions. Research on a mountain-dwelling mammal species across 15 yrs of contemporary data and historical records from 1898-1956 suggest that pace of local extinctions and rate of upslope retraction have been markedly more rapid and governed by markedly different dynamics in the last decade than during the 20th century. This may mean that understanding past dynamics of species losses may not always help predict patterns of future loss. Given the importance of clinal variability and ecotypic variation, phenotypic plasticity, behavioral plasticity, and variation in climatic conditions, for widely-distributed species’ geographic ranges to be determined by different factors in different portions of their range is not uncommon. Consequently, greatest progress in understanding distributionalchange phenomena will occur with coordinated, landscape-scale research and monitoring. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and Climate Science Centers are newly emerging efforts that may contribute greatly to such broad-scale investigations, e.g., climate-wildlife relationships. Based on our empirical findings and our review of related literature, we propose tenets that may serve as foundational starting points for mechanism-based research at broad scales to inform management and conservation of diverse montane wildlife and the ecosystem components with which they interact

Three Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest

In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes three of these droughts in terms of the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies, and discusses different drought impacts experienced in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). For the first drought, in 2001, low winter precipitation in the PNW produced very low streamflow that primarily affected farmers and hydropower generation. For the second, in 2003, low summer precipitation in Washington (WA), and low summer precipitation and a warm winter in Oregon (OR) primarily affected streamflow and forests. For the last, in 2005, a lack of snowpack due to warm temperatures during significant winter precipitation events in WA, and low winter precipitation in OR, had a variety of different agricultural and hydrologic impacts. Although the proximal causes of droughts are easily quantified, the ultimate causes are not as clear. Better precipitation observations in the PNW are required to provide timely monitoring of conditions leading to droughts to improve prediction in the futur

Historical trends and future projections of climate and streamflow in the Willamette Valley and Rogue River Basins

A report to the US Army Corps of Engineers Portland District Office.Regional warming and changing precipitation patterns are affecting water supply with implications for water management under future climate change. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District manages dams, reservoirs, and projects (e.g. fish facilities) in the Willamette and Rogue River Basins and must balance multiple objectives of providing reservoir storage space to minimize flood risk, refilling reservoirs for conservation storage, meeting environmental objectives, and maximizing hydropower. This balancing act may become more challenging under future climate conditions. This report examines observed changes in temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow in the Willamette and Rogue River Basins and provides projections of future changes in these variables based on global climate model simulations

Sub-seasonal variations in lower stratospheric water vapor

Observations of water vapor with high temporal and spatial resolution and good horizontal coverage just above the tropical tropopause have been scarce, but a preliminary version of such data has been developed using radiance measurements of the Microwave Limb Sounder. These data reveal distinct variations with periods in the ranges 10-25 days and 30-70 days, consistent with (respectively) slow Kelvin waves and the tropical intraseasonal oscillation

Simulation of the Pinatubo aerosol cloud in general circulation model

A high resolution stratospheric version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2) with an annual cycle was used to simulate the global transport and dispersion of the Pinatuboa aerosol cloud. A passive tracer was injected into the model stratosphere over the Philippines Islands on model day June15, and the transport was simulated for 180 days using an accurate semi-Lagrangian advection scheme. The simulated volcanic aerosol cloud initially drifted westward and expanded in longitude and latitude. The bulk of the aerosol cloud dispersed zonally to form a continuous belt in longitude and remained confined to the tropics (30°N- 25°S) centered near the 20 mb level for the entire 180 day model run, although a small amount was transported episodically into the upper troposphere in association with convective disturbances. Aerosol transported to the troposphere was dispersed within a few weeks into the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. In the Southern Hemisphere the aerosol was mixed into the region equatorward of the core of the polar night jet during the first 50 days, but penetration into Southern Polar latitudes was delayed until the final warming in November. These results, which are generally consistent with observed behavior of the El Chichon aerosol, will be compared with observations of the Pinatubo cloud in the course of the next several months

Characteristics of stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a general circulation model

Air and trace gases are exchanged between the stratosphere and the troposphere on a variety of scales; but general circulation models (GCMs) are unable to represent the smaller scales. It would be useful to see how a GCM represents stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE), both to identify possible model deficiencies which would affect other studies and to see how important the smaller-scale physics might be in the atmosphere itself. Our understanding of observed STE depends largely on inferences from tracer distributions. In this study we examine mass exchange, water vapor exchange, and the behavior of idealized tracers and parcels to diagnose STE in the National Center for Atmospheric Research GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2). The CCM2 correctly represents the seasonality of mass exchange across 100 hPa, but values are uniformly too strong. Water vapor, however, indicates that tropical STE is not well represented in the CCM2; even though mean tropopause temperatures are colder than observed, the lower stratosphere is too moist. Most net mass flux occurs at water vapor mixing ratios of about 4-5 parts per million by volume (ppmv), about 1 ppmv too moist. Vertical resolution has little impact on the nature of tropical STE. In midlatitudes, CCM2 more successfully represents STE, which occurs in developing baroclinic waves and stationary anticyclones. Exchange from troposphere to stratosphere does occur but only influences the lowest few kilometers of the extratropical stratosphere, even for tracers with large vertical gradient

Surface temperature lapse rates over complex terrain : lessons from the Cascade Mountains

The typically sparse distribution of weather stations in mountainous terrain inadequately resolves temperature variability. Accordingly, high‐resolution gridding of climate data (for applications such as hydrological modeling) often relies on assumptions such as a constant surface temperature lapse rate (i.e., decrease of surface temperature with altitude) of 6.5°C km⁻¹. Using an example of the Cascade Mountains, we describe the temporal and spatial variability of the surface temperature lapse rate, combining data from: (1) COOP stations, (2) nearby radiosonde launches, (3) a temporary dense network of sensors, (4) forecasts from the MM5 regional model, and (5) PRISM geo‐statistical analyses. On the windward side of the range, the various data sources reveal annual mean lapse rates of 3.9–5.2°C km⁻¹, substantially smaller than the often‐assumed 6.5°C km⁻¹. The data sets show similar seasonal and diurnal variability, with lapse rates smallest (2.5–3.5°C km⁻¹) in late‐summer minimum temperatures, and largest (6.5–7.5°C km⁻¹) in spring maximum temperatures. Geographic (windward versus lee side) differences in lapse rates are found to be substantial. Using a simple runoff model, we show the appreciable implications of these results for hydrological modeling