A normative analysis of gambling tax policy

This article surveys the application of normative tax theory to gambling tax policy. The analysis suggests that fixed license based taxes may be preferable to taxes on gross gaming revenue. Where output based taxes are used, the types of gambling whose demand is more price sensitive, and the types that have positive links to other industries, should be taxed at comparatively lower rates. Sin-based taxes are noted to increase economic welfare, but only when applied with a rate commensurate to harm that is external to the gambler and the operator. Finally, inter-jurisdictional competition is identified as an important consideration in tax policy and enforcement

Third-party responsible gambling accreditation programs are related to short-term improvements at casinos but no ongoing gains: Evidence from RG Check

This study examines how casino operators’ responsible gambling program performance changes after entering a third-party assurance program. Using de-identified responsible gambling accreditation data from the 75 casinos employing the “RG Check” program from 2012 to April 2019, this study finds that casino scores improved in the first reaccreditation period (p \u3c .001, d = 0.92), but failed to improve in the second reaccreditation (p \u3c .78, d = 0.38). Much of the first reaccreditation changes appear to be a result of one-time improvement in the scores of lower performing venues. There also appears to be inconsistent improvements in tactical areas of RG programs, as some areas improved over time while others were unchanged or declined. The Friedman test revealed statistically significant increases in scores for RG policies (p \u3c .001); employee training (p \u3c .001); venue/game features (p \u3c .001); and access to money (p \u3c .001). It also revealed a decrease in informed decision making scores (p = .010). The evidence is consistent with accreditation programs being used as a reputation signal rather than a performance management tool. The findings from this study suggest that RG assurance programs lead to some benefit but may not be a source of ongoing and consistent improvement without programmatic changes or other regulatory tools

The Effect of Online Gaming on Commercial Casino Revenue

This study estimates the effect of the online gaming industry on the commercial casino gaming industry. The findings from this study suggest that during the pre-UIGEA period, online gaming was a moderate substitute good for brick and mortar gaming in the U.S. During this early period in the online gaming market, which was characterized by loose regulation and relatively easy access, online gaming revenue is estimated to have cannibalized commercial casino revenue at a rate of 27 to 30 cents on the dollar. A discussion of this finding’s relevance to the current gaming market and the related policy considerations is provided. This study also led to the discovery of a seemingly valid instrumental variable, internet user rates, which can be used to correct internet gaming coefficient estimates for potential bias in future studies

Predicting Intention to Play Random and Skill-based Electronic Gambling Machines Using the Theory of Reasoned Action

Hybrid gambling machines (HGMs) are a new gambling activity that combine the skill element of traditional video games with the random pay-out schedule of electronic gaming machines (e.g., slots). Developed to increase gambling by younger generations that favor video games, there is currently no empirical evidence regarding consumer views of HGMs to guide policy-decision making related to this new gambling activity. We use the theory of reasoned action (TRA) to investigate factors that motivate intentions to play these machines in two studies: (1) among 43 casino patrons and (2) among 184 US online participants residing in states where HGMs were available. Both samples completed surveys after exposure to actual or explanations of HGMs and slots. Analyses supported the prediction that positive attitudes towards HGMs and positively perceived subjective norms would predict intention to play HGMs and slots. The results suggest that the TRA is a useful framework for explaining intentions to gamble on traditional slot machines and new HGMs. The absence of research on HGMs makes these studies an important and necessary contribution to the empirical literature on machine gambling. Understanding individuals’ intentions to engage with HGMs is important to guide development of harm-minimisation practices and evaluate impact of policy changes.This work was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award [DE1060100459] awarded to Dr Sally Gainsbury. The funding body had no involvement in the study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of data, writing the report or decision to submit the article for publication

An Assessment of the Validity of the Gamblers Belief Questionnaire

Cognitive distortions in gambling are irrational thoughts that cause an individual to overestimate their level of control over the outcome of the game and diminish the role of chance. Due to their strong relation to gambling disorders, they are a particularly important characteristic to assess and understand in gamblers. Although numerous measures of gambling-related cognitive distortions exist, studies assessing criterion validity are scarce. In this study, we develop several tests of the Gamblers Belief Questionnaire (GBQ), a versatile and widely used scale. A sample of 184 U.S. adults was recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk to complete an online study that included measurement of the GBQ and an assessment of the perceived role of skill and chance in various gambling and non-gambling activities. In addition to a confirmatory factor analysis of the scale, three novel validation tests were developed to understand whether the GBQ subscales can identify and discriminate measures of illusion of control and gambler's fallacy distortions. Our validation tests demonstrate that the scale does measure both distortions, providing information about gamblers' cognition that is unexplained by gambling problems, frequency of play, and demographics. Conversely, our analysis of the factor structure does not show good fit. We conclude that the GBQ measures gambling-related cognitive distortions, but there may be an opportunity to reduce the number of scale items and further refine precision of the two subscales.This work was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award [DE1060100459] awarded to Dr. Sally Gainsbury

Strategies to Customize Responsible Gambling Messages: A Review and Focus Group Study

Background Responsible gambling messages are widely used as a tool to enable informed choice and encourage appropriate gambling behavior. It is generally accepted that gamblers have different levels of risk of developing gambling problems and require various harm minimization tools and resources. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that responsible gambling messages should be customized and target specific groups of gamblers. This project aimed to understand hypothesized differences between cohorts of gamblers and receive qualitative feedback on archetypal targeted messages used to increase use of responsible gambling tools. Methods Focus groups were held to test messages for specific cohorts: young adults (18–24 years), seniors (60+ years), frequent gamblers (weekly), and gamblers of skill-based games (poker, sports betting). Results Cohorts exhibited different preferences and responses to message archetypes. Seniors preferred messages about limit setting, whilst young adults and frequent gamblers responded to messages about their own play and expertise. Skill game gamblers were interested in the odds of winning and their own outcomes over time. However, all groups agreed that using positive, non-judgmental language in messaging is important. Conclusions This research makes an important contribution to the field by demonstrating that the wording of message content will likely influence the effectiveness of such messages differentially across various groups of gamblers for engaging gamblers in harm reduction tools. Guidance is provided on themes that can be used by public health marketers

Predicting limit-setting behavior of gamblers using machine learning algorithms: a real-world study of Norwegian gamblers using account data

Player protection and harm minimization have become increasingly important in the gambling industry along with the promotion of responsible gambling (RG). Among the most widespread RG tools that gaming operators provide are limit-setting tools that help players limit the amount of time and/or money they spend gambling. Research suggests that limit-setting significantly reduces the amount of money that players spend. If limit-setting is to be encouraged as a way of facilitating responsible gambling, it is important to know what variables are important in getting individuals to set and change limits in the first place. In the present study, 33 variables assessing the player behavior among Norsk Tipping clientele (N = 70,789) from January to March 2017 were computed. The 33 variables which reflect the players’ behavior were then used to predict the likelihood of gamblers changing their monetary limit between April and June 2017. The 70,789 players were randomly split into a training dataset of 56,532 and an evaluation set of 14,157 players (corresponding to an 80/20 split). The results demonstrated that it is possible to predict future limit-setting based on player behavior. The random forest algorithm appeared to predict limit-changing behavior much better than the other algorithms. However, on the independent test data, the random forest algorithm’s accuracy dropped significantly. The best performance on the test data along with a small decrease in accuracy in comparison to the training data was delivered by the gradient boost machine learning algorithm. The most important variables predicting future limit-setting using the gradient boost machine algorithm were players receiving feedback that they had reached 80% of their personal monthly global loss limit, personal monthly loss limit, the amount bet, theoretical loss, and whether the players had increased their limits in the past. With the help of predictive analytics, players with a high likelihood of changing their limits can be proactively approached

Determinants of Internet Gambling Policy Adoption

Since its inception, online gambling legalization has been a controversial and contentious subject among governments worldwide. Residents in these jurisdictions face an uncertain future regarding the liberty to gamble online. This study seeks to identify which demographic, economic, technological, and sociological determinants contribute a government’s decision to allow their citizens to gamble online. A seemingly unrelated bivariate probit regression analysis revealed that national population, government revenues as a percentage of GDP, the Hofstede Uncertainty Avoidance Index, number of Internet users, and a country’s Christianity proportion contributed significantly to the observed distribution of online gambling legality in 47 countries

The value of regulation to platform-based businesses: Evidence from online poker markets

Online platform businesses face challenges with consumer trust. Internet purchase intentions are generally influenced by consumers’ perceptions of trust in the retailer and platform business must additionally satisfy consumers scepticism over the conduct of network members. Using data from online poker markets, a platform-based industry, this study demonstrates that government regulation can add substantial value online platforms, even on sites with private trust measures. We find online poker consumers are willing to pay meaningful sums for government regulation, even after controlling for infrastructural signals (security) and indirect signals (firm size). The results suggest government intervention in gambling markets is warranted, and may be useful in other networked industries with asymmetric information