Understanding of prognosis in non-metastatic prostate cancer: a randomised comparative study of clinician estimates measured against the PREDICT prostate prognostic model

Abstract: PREDICT Prostate is an individualised prognostic model that provides long-term survival estimates for men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (www.prostate.predict.nhs.uk). In this study clinician estimates of survival were compared against model predictions and its potential value as a clinical tool was assessed. Prostate cancer (PCa) specialists were invited to participate in the study. 190 clinicians (63% urologists, 17% oncologists, 20% other) were randomised into two groups and shown 12 clinical vignettes through an online portal. Each group viewed opposing vignettes with clinical information alone, or alongside PREDICT Prostate estimates. 15-year clinician survival estimates were compared against model predictions and reported treatment recommendations with and without seeing PREDICT estimates were compared. 155 respondents (81.6%) reported counselling new PCa patients at least weekly. Clinician estimates of PCa-specific mortality exceeded PREDICT estimates in 10/12 vignettes. Their estimates for treatment survival benefit at 15 years were over-optimistic in every vignette, with mean clinician estimates more than 5-fold higher than PREDICT Prostate estimates. Concomitantly seeing PREDICT Prostate estimates led to significantly lower reported likelihoods of recommending radical treatment in 7/12 (58%) vignettes, particularly in older patients. These data suggest clinicians overestimate cancer-related mortality and radical treatment benefit. Using an individualised prognostic tool may help reduce overtreatment

Polygenic risk-tailored screening for prostate cancer: A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness modelling study.

Background The United States Preventive Services Task Force supports individualised decision-making for prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening in men aged 55-69. Knowing how the potential benefits and harms of screening vary by an individual's risk of developing prostate cancer could inform decision-making about screening at both an individual and population level. This modelling study examined the benefit-harm tradeoffs and the cost-effectiveness of a risk-tailored screening programme compared to age-based and no screening.Methods and findings A life-table model, projecting age-specific prostate cancer incidence and mortality, was developed of a hypothetical cohort of 4.48 million men in England aged 55 to 69 years with follow-up to age 90. Risk thresholds were based on age and polygenic profile. We compared no screening, age-based screening (quadrennial PSA testing from 55 to 69), and risk-tailored screening (men aged 55 to 69 years with a 10-year absolute risk greater than a threshold receive quadrennial PSA testing from the age they reach the risk threshold). The analysis was undertaken from the health service perspective, including direct costs borne by the health system for risk assessment, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. We used probabilistic sensitivity analyses to account for parameter uncertainty and discounted future costs and benefits at 3.5% per year. Our analysis should be considered cautiously in light of limitations related to our model's cohort-based structure and the uncertainty of input parameters in mathematical models. Compared to no screening over 35 years follow-up, age-based screening prevented the most deaths from prostate cancer (39,272, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 16,792-59,685) at the expense of 94,831 (95% UI: 84,827-105,630) overdiagnosed cancers. Age-based screening was the least cost-effective strategy studied. The greatest number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was generated by risk-based screening at a 10-year absolute risk threshold of 4%. At this threshold, risk-based screening led to one-third fewer overdiagnosed cancers (64,384, 95% UI: 57,382-72,050) but averted 6.3% fewer (9,695, 95% UI: 2,853-15,851) deaths from prostate cancer by comparison with age-based screening. Relative to no screening, risk-based screening at a 4% 10-year absolute risk threshold was cost-effective in 48.4% and 57.4% of the simulations at willingness-to-pay thresholds of GBP£20,000 (US$26,000) and £30,000 ($39,386) per QALY, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of risk-tailored screening improved as the threshold rose.Conclusions Based on the results of this modelling study, offering screening to men at higher risk could potentially reduce overdiagnosis and improve the benefit-harm tradeoff and the cost-effectiveness of a prostate cancer screening program. The optimal threshold will depend on societal judgements of the appropriate balance of benefits-harms and cost-effectiveness

A study of fuel poverty and low-carbon synergies in social housing

This socio-technical pilot involved qualitative interviews with social housing tenants, combined with basic energy modelling of the individual dwellings to estimate the carbon emissions of that house. The study aimed to investigate the relationship between fuel poverty and carbon-saving synergies in the UK domestic housing stock. Fuel poverty, the circumstance where a household spends more than 10% of its income on energy bills, is predicted as being 21% of the entire domestic stock. The fuel poor behaviours described in this study, including frugality and rationing of energy use, may become more common, and even be seen as the “norm”. If domestic energy bills increase with predictions, the number of fuel poor households will continue to rise. It is likely that their practices will become more diverse. This diversity is important as it will affect not only the choice of measures for reducing energy consumption but also the likely post-measure “rebound effect”, where a perceived energy saving might not be achieved as households increase their energy use directly, or indirectly, as a result of having lower energy bills. The study found that “electricity as entertainment” is very apparent in low-income homes, particularly those with children. This can have a significant impact on the household’s fuel poverty status. It is important not to discount this effect as the choices for reducing fuel poverty may not only be related to building refurbishment. This study concludes that lack of energy inefficiency is not the main driver of fuel poverty in the UK. Small changes in the efficiency of the UK stock have had minimal impact on fuel poverty numbers because this is driven by gas prices. But if large-scale changes were made to such homes then it may be possible to ameliorate the effect of rising fuel prices, though without eliminating fuel poverty altogether. The work ascertained that the fuel poor do not recognise themselves as living ‘low-carbon lifestyles’ but it seems likely that they do from the frugal responses that our sample display. Helping those in fuel poverty to recognise this, and rewarding this through policy, could be a positive way of encouraging continued action If a substantial impact to both fuel poverty and domestic carbon emissions is to be made, large-scale changes to buildings are necessary. Existing energy behaviour, energy frugality (as governed by income) and the response of the occupant to any potential energy-saving improvement will not be universal across the stock. Given the fuel poverty context, the authors suggest that the proposed 2011 Energy Act Green Deal is not suitably structured for achieving large-scale reductions in fuel poverty and domestic carbon emissions. The provision intends to provide loans of up to £6.500 to eliminate the need to pay upfront for energy efficiency measures. The cost of repayment should be covered by electricity bill savings. If large-scale measures are needed to have a genuine, and long lasting, effect, then £6,500 per home is not likely to be sufficient for fuel poor social housing tenants to rise out of fuel poverty. It is currently unclear whether the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) will be sufficient to compensate for any of the weaknesses of the Green Deal when applied to fuel poor homes. ECO will place one or more obligations on energy companies requiring them to facilitate the installation of energy efficiency measures in homes

Decline in Antigenicity of Tumor Markers by Storage Time Using Pathology Sections Cut From Tissue Microarrays.

Sectioning a whole tissue microarrray (TMA block) and storing the sections maximizes the number of sections obtained, but may impair the antigenicity of the stored sections. We have investigated the impact of TMA section storage on antigenicity. First, we reexamined existing TMA data to determine whether antigenicity in stored sections changes over time. Component scores for each marker, based on cellular compartment of staining and score-type, were evaluated separately. Residual components scores adjusted for grade, tumor size, and node positivity, were regressed on the number of days storage to evaluate the effect of storage time. Storage time ranged from 2 to 1897 days, and the mean change in antigenicity per year ranged from -0.88 (95% confidence interval, -1.11 to -0.65) to 0.035 (95% confidence interval, 0.016-0.054). Further analysis showed no significant improvement in the fit of survival models if storage time adjusted scores were included in the models rather than unadjusted scores. We then compared 3 ways of processing TMA sections after cutting-immediate staining, staining after 1 year, and staining after 1 year coated in wax-on the immunohistochemistry results for: progesterone receptor, a routinely used, robust antibody, and MKI67, which is generally considered less robust. The progesterone receptor scores for stored sections were similar to those for unstored sections, whereas the MKI67 scores for stored sections were substantially different to those for unstored sections. Wax coating made little difference to the results. Biomarker antigenicity shows a small decline over time that is unlikely to have an important effect on studies of prognostic biomarkers.We acknowledge the SEARCH team, the National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office and Information Centre, the Histopathology Core Facility at the CRUK Cambridge Research Institute for immunohistochemical staining and digital image acquisition and the Human Research Tissue Bank, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. This work was funded through a programme grant from Cancer Research UK (C490/A10119, C490/A10124 and C490/A16561) and funding from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.This is the final version of the article. It was first published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins at http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/PAI.000000000000017

Test-Retest Reliability of Self-Reported Sexual Behavior History in Urbanized Nigerian Women.

BACKGROUND: Studies assessing risk of sexual behavior and disease are often plagued by questions about the reliability of self-reported sexual behavior. In this study, we evaluated the reliability of self-reported sexual history among urbanized women in a prospective study of cervical HPV infections in Nigeria. METHODS: We examined test-retest reliability of sexual practices using questionnaires administered at study entry and at follow-up visits. We used the root mean squared approach to calculate within-person coefficient of variation (CVw) and calculated the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) using two way, mixed effects models for continuous variables and [Formula: see text] statistics for discrete variables. To evaluate the potential predictors of reliability, we used linear regression and log binomial regression models for the continuous and categorical variables, respectively. RESULTS: We found that self-reported sexual history was generally reliable, with overall ICC ranging from 0.7 to 0.9; however, the reliability varied by nature of sexual behavior evaluated. Frequency reports of non-vaginal sex (agreement = 63.9%, 95% CI: 47.5-77.6%) were more reliable than those of vaginal sex (agreement = 59.1%, 95% CI: 55.2-62.8%). Reports of time-invariant behaviors were also more reliable than frequency reports. The CVw for age at sexual debut was 10.7 (95% CI: 10.6-10.7) compared with the CVw for lifetime number of vaginal sex partners, which was 35.2 (95% CI: 35.1-35.3). The test-retest interval was an important predictor of reliability of responses, with longer intervals resulting in increased inconsistency (average change in unreliability for each 1 month increase = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.07-0.38, p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that overall, the self-reported sexual history among urbanized Nigeran women is reliable

Individual prognosis at diagnosis in nonmetastatic prostate cancer: Development and external validation of the PREDICT Prostate multivariable model.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic stratification is the cornerstone of management in nonmetastatic prostate cancer (PCa). However, existing prognostic models are inadequate-often using treatment outcomes rather than survival, stratifying by broad heterogeneous groups and using heavily treated cohorts. To address this unmet need, we developed an individualised prognostic model that contextualises PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) against other cause mortality, and estimates the impact of treatment on survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using records from the United Kingdom National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS), data were collated for 10,089 men diagnosed with nonmetastatic PCa between 2000 and 2010 in Eastern England. Median follow-up was 9.8 years with 3,829 deaths (1,202 PCa specific). Totals of 19.8%, 14.1%, 34.6%, and 31.5% of men underwent conservative management, prostatectomy, radiotherapy (RT), and androgen deprivation monotherapy, respectively. A total of 2,546 men diagnosed in Singapore over a similar time period represented an external validation cohort. Data were randomly split 70:30 into model development and validation cohorts. Fifteen-year PCSM and non-PCa mortality (NPCM) were explored using separate multivariable Cox models within a competing risks framework. Fractional polynomials (FPs) were utilised to fit continuous variables and baseline hazards. Model accuracy was assessed by discrimination and calibration using the Harrell C-index and chi-squared goodness of fit, respectively, within both validation cohorts. A multivariable model estimating individualised 10- and 15-year survival outcomes was constructed combining age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), histological grade, biopsy core involvement, stage, and primary treatment, which were each independent prognostic factors for PCSM, and age and comorbidity, which were prognostic for NPCM. The model demonstrated good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82-0.86) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.87) for 15-year PCSM in the UK and Singapore validation cohorts, respectively, comparing favourably to international risk-stratification criteria. Discrimination was maintained for overall mortality, with C-index 0.77 (95% CI: 0.75-0.78) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.73-0.78). The model was well calibrated with no significant difference between predicted and observed PCa-specific (p = 0.19) or overall deaths (p = 0.43) in the UK cohort. Key study limitations were a relatively small external validation cohort, an inability to account for delayed changes to treatment beyond 12 months, and an absence of tumour-stage subclassifications. CONCLUSIONS: 'PREDICT Prostate' is an individualised multivariable PCa prognostic model built from baseline diagnostic information and the first to our knowledge that models potential treatment benefits on overall survival. Prognostic power is high despite using only routinely collected clinicopathological information.The Urology Foundatio

Association between tumour infiltrating lymphocytes, histotype and clinical outcome in epithelial ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that some ovarian tumours evoke an immune response, which can be assessed by tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). To facilitate adoption of TILs as a clinical biomarker, a standardised method for their H&E visual evaluation has been validated in breast cancer. METHODS: We sought to investigate the prognostic significance of TILs in a study of 953 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer tumour samples, both primary and metastatic, from 707 patients from the prospective population-based SEARCH study. TILs were analysed using a standardised method based on H&E staining producing a percentage score for stromal and intratumoral compartments. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios of the association between TILs and survival. RESULTS: The extent of stromal and intra-tumoral TILs were correlated in the primary tumours (n = 679, Spearman's rank correlation = 0.60, P < 0.001) with a similar correlation in secondary tumours (n = 224, Spearman's rank correlation = 0.62, P < 0.001). There was a weak correlation between stromal TIL levels in primary and secondary tumour samples (Spearman's rank correlation = 0.29, P < 0.001) and intra-tumoral TIL levels in primary and secondary tumour samples (Spearman's rank correlation = 0.19, P = 0.0094). The extent of stromal TILs differed between histotypes (Pearson chi2 (12d.f.) 54.1, P < 0.0001) with higher levels of stromal infiltration in the high-grade serous and endometriod cases. A significant association was observed for higher intratumoral TIL levels and a favourable prognosis (HR 0.74 95% CI 0.55-1.00 p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: This study is the largest collection of epithelial ovarian tumour samples evaluated for TILs. We have shown that stromal and intratumoral TIL levels are correlated and that their levels correlate with clinical variables such as tumour histological subtype. We have also shown that increased levels of both intratumoral and stromal TILs are associated with a better prognosis; however, this is only statistically significant for intratumoral TILs. This study suggests that a clinically useful immune prognostic indicator in epithelial ovarian cancer could be developed using this technique

Common variation in EMSY and risk of breast and ovarian cancer: a case-control study using HapMap tagging SNPs.

BACKGROUND: EMSY could be involved in low-level susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer. Gene amplification is seen in a proportion of breast and ovarian tumours and correlates with poor prognosis in breast cancer patients. Furthermore, the EMSY protein silences a transcription activation domain in BRCA2 exon 3. METHODS: We used a genetic association study design to determine if common genetic variation (frequency > or = 5%) in EMSY was associated with breast or ovarian cancer risk in the British population. Haplotype tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (htSNPs) were selected from the HapMap database and genotyped using Taqman in two large study sets of white British women (n [breast set] = 2343 cases and 2284 controls, n [ovarian set] = 864 cases and 864 controls). HapMap data might be insufficient to tag genetic variation in EMSY comprehensively. We therefore screened the gene promoter and coding sequences with denaturing high performance liquid chromatography in order to identify additional SNPs that are most likely to be functional. RESULTS: HapMap data on 22 SNPs show that 4 htSNPs tag 4 common haplotypes: rs2282611 (5'up t > g), rs4245443 (IVS7 g > a), rs2513511 (IVS16 a > g), rs2155220 (3'down c > t). We observed no association between any of the genotypes or associated haplotypes and breast or ovarian cancer risk. Seventeen out of the 18 remaining HapMap polymorphisms (94%) were well tagged by the 4 selected htSNPs (r2s > 0.8). Genotype frequencies for two further SNPs identified by screening and located near exon-intron boundaries, rs2508740 (IVS9 a > g) and rs11600501 (IVS10 c > t), were also similar in cases and controls. In order to simulate unidentified SNPs, we performed the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure on the HapMap data; over 95% of the common genetic variation was well represented by tagging polymorphisms. We are therefore likely to have tagged any common, functional variants present in our population. CONCLUSION: We found no association between common genetic variation in EMSY and risk of breast or ovarian cancer in two large study sets of white British women