Identification of ten variants associated with risk of estrogen-receptor-negative breast cancer

Most common breast cancer susceptibility variants have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of predominantly estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease. We conducted a GWAS using 21,468 ER-negative cases and 100,594 controls combined with 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer), all of European origin. We identified independent associations at P<5x10$^{-8}$ with 10 variants at nine novel loci. At P< 0.05, we replicated associations with 10 of 11 variants previously reported in ER-negative or BRCA1 mutation carrier GWASs, and observed consistent associations with ER-negative disease for 105 susceptibility variants identified by other breast cancer GWASs. These 125 variants explain approximately 16% of the familial risk of this breast cancer subtype. There was high genetic correlation (0.72) between risk of ER-negative breast cancer and breast cancer risk for BRCA1 carriers. These findings will likely lead to improved risk prediction and inform further fine-mapping and functional work to better understand the biological basis of ER-negative breast cancer.Genotyping for the OncoArray was funded by the government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (GPH-129344), the Ministère de l'Économie, de la Science et de l'Innovation du Québec through Génome Québec, the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation for the PERSPECTIVE project, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) (1 U19 CA 148065 for the Discovery, Biology and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) project and X01HG007492 to the Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) under contract HHSN268201200008I), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A16563), the Odense University Hospital Research Foundation (Denmark), the National R&D Program for Cancer Control–Ministry of Health and Welfare (Republic of Korea) (1420190), the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC; IG16933), the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia) and German Cancer Aid (110837). Genotyping for the iCOGS array was funded by the European Union (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10710, C1287/A10118 and C12292/A11174]), NIH grants (CA128978, CA116167 and CA176785) and the Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 (GAME-ON initiative)), an NCI Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, the Ministère de l'Économie, Innovation et Exportation du Québec (PSR-SIIRI-701), the Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. Combination of the GWAS data was supported in part by the NIH Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1 U19 CA 148065) (DRIVE, part of the GAME-ON initiative). LD score regression analysis was supported by grant CA194393. BCAC is funded by Cancer Research UK (C1287/A16563) and by the European Union via its Seventh Framework Programme (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175, COGS) and the Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (633784, B-CAST; 634935, BRIDGES). CIMBA is funded by Cancer Research UK (C12292/A20861 and C12292/A11174)

Patterns of Immune Infiltration in Breast Cancer and Their Clinical Implications: A Gene-Expression-Based Retrospective Study

$\textbf{Background}$: Immune infiltration of breast tumours is associated with clinical outcome. However, past work has not accounted for the diversity of functionally distinct cell types that make up the immune response. The aim of this study was to determine whether differences in the cellular composition of the immune infiltrate in breast tumours influence survival and treatment response, and whether these effects differ by molecular subtype. $\textbf{Methods and Findings}$: We applied an established computational approach (CIBERSORT) to bulk gene expression profiles of almost 11,000 tumours to infer the proportions of 22 subsets of immune cells. We investigated associations between each cell type and survival and response to chemotherapy, modelling cellular proportions as quartiles. We found that tumours with little or no immune infiltration were associated with different survival patterns according to oestrogen receptor (ER) status. In ER-negative disease, tumours lacking immune infiltration were associated with the poorest prognosis, whereas in ER-positive disease, they were associated with intermediate prognosis. Of the cell subsets investigated, T regulatory cells and M0 and M2 macrophages emerged as the most strongly associated with poor outcome, regardless of ER status. Among ER-negative tumours, CD8+ T cells (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.98; $p$ = 0.02) and activated memory T cells (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.80-0.97; $p$ = 0.01) were associated with favourable outcome. T follicular helper cells (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34, 95% CI 1.14-1.57; $p$ < 0.001) and memory B cells (OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.0-1.39; $p$ = 0.04) were associated with pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in ER-negative disease, suggesting a role for humoral immunity in mediating response to cytotoxic therapy. Unsupervised clustering analysis using immune cell proportions revealed eight subgroups of tumours, largely defined by the balance between M0, M1, and M2 macrophages, with distinct survival patterns by ER status and associations with patient age at diagnosis. The main limitations of this study are the use of diverse platforms for measuring gene expression, including some not previously used with CIBERSORT, and the combined analysis of different forms of follow-up across studies. $\textbf{Conclusions}$: Large differences in the cellular composition of the immune infiltrate in breast tumours appear to exist, and these differences are likely to be important determinants of both prognosis and response to treatment. In particular, macrophages emerge as a possible target for novel therapies. Detailed analysis of the cellular immune response in tumours has the potential to enhance clinical prediction and to identify candidates for immunotherapy.HRA is an NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer and was a recipient of a Career Development Fellowship from The Pathological Society of GB and N Ireland, and a Starter Grant for Clinical Lecturers from the Academy of Medical Sciences. LC, CC, and FM received funding from the CRUK & EPSRC Cancer Imaging Centre in Cambridge & Manchester (grant C197/A16465)

Polygenic risk-tailored screening for prostate cancer: A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness modelling study.

Background The United States Preventive Services Task Force supports individualised decision-making for prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening in men aged 55-69. Knowing how the potential benefits and harms of screening vary by an individual's risk of developing prostate cancer could inform decision-making about screening at both an individual and population level. This modelling study examined the benefit-harm tradeoffs and the cost-effectiveness of a risk-tailored screening programme compared to age-based and no screening.Methods and findings A life-table model, projecting age-specific prostate cancer incidence and mortality, was developed of a hypothetical cohort of 4.48 million men in England aged 55 to 69 years with follow-up to age 90. Risk thresholds were based on age and polygenic profile. We compared no screening, age-based screening (quadrennial PSA testing from 55 to 69), and risk-tailored screening (men aged 55 to 69 years with a 10-year absolute risk greater than a threshold receive quadrennial PSA testing from the age they reach the risk threshold). The analysis was undertaken from the health service perspective, including direct costs borne by the health system for risk assessment, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. We used probabilistic sensitivity analyses to account for parameter uncertainty and discounted future costs and benefits at 3.5% per year. Our analysis should be considered cautiously in light of limitations related to our model's cohort-based structure and the uncertainty of input parameters in mathematical models. Compared to no screening over 35 years follow-up, age-based screening prevented the most deaths from prostate cancer (39,272, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 16,792-59,685) at the expense of 94,831 (95% UI: 84,827-105,630) overdiagnosed cancers. Age-based screening was the least cost-effective strategy studied. The greatest number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was generated by risk-based screening at a 10-year absolute risk threshold of 4%. At this threshold, risk-based screening led to one-third fewer overdiagnosed cancers (64,384, 95% UI: 57,382-72,050) but averted 6.3% fewer (9,695, 95% UI: 2,853-15,851) deaths from prostate cancer by comparison with age-based screening. Relative to no screening, risk-based screening at a 4% 10-year absolute risk threshold was cost-effective in 48.4% and 57.4% of the simulations at willingness-to-pay thresholds of GBP£20,000 (US$26,000) and £30,000 ($39,386) per QALY, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of risk-tailored screening improved as the threshold rose.Conclusions Based on the results of this modelling study, offering screening to men at higher risk could potentially reduce overdiagnosis and improve the benefit-harm tradeoff and the cost-effectiveness of a prostate cancer screening program. The optimal threshold will depend on societal judgements of the appropriate balance of benefits-harms and cost-effectiveness

Joint IARC/NCI International Cancer Seminar Series Report: Expert consensus on future directions for ovarian carcinoma research

Recently, ovarian cancer research has evolved considerably because of the emerging recognition that rather than a single disease, ovarian carcinomas comprise several different histotypes that vary by etiologic origin, risk factors, molecular profiles, therapeutic approaches, and clinical outcome. Despite significant progress in our understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of ovarian cancer, as well as important clinical advances, it remains the eighth most frequently diagnosed cancer in women worldwide and the most fatal gynecologic cancer. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) jointly convened an expert panel on ovarian carcinoma to develop consensus research priorities based on evolving scientific discoveries. Expertise ranged from etiology, prevention, early detection, pathology, model systems, molecular characterization, and treatment/clinical management. This report summarizes the current state of knowledge and highlights expert consensus on future directions to continue advancing etiologic, epidemiologic, and prognostic research on ovarian carcinoma

Collateral damage: the impact on outcomes from cancer surgery of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Cancer diagnostics and surgery have been disrupted by the response of health care services to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Progression of cancers during delay will impact on patients' long-term survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We generated per-day hazard ratios of cancer progression from observational studies and applied these to age-specific, stage-specific cancer survival for England 2013-2017. We modelled per-patient delay of 3 and 6 months and periods of disruption of 1 and 2 years. Using health care resource costing, we contextualise attributable lives saved and life-years gained (LYGs) from cancer surgery to equivalent volumes of COVID-19 hospitalisations. RESULTS: Per year, 94 912 resections for major cancers result in 80 406 long-term survivors and 1 717 051 LYGs. Per-patient delay of 3/6 months would cause attributable death of 4755/10 760 of these individuals with loss of 92 214/208 275 life-years, respectively. For cancer surgery, average LYGs per patient are 18.1 under standard conditions and 17.1/15.9 with a delay of 3/6 months (an average loss of 0.97/2.19 LYGs per patient), respectively. Taking into account health care resource units (HCRUs), surgery results on average per patient in 2.25 resource-adjusted life-years gained (RALYGs) under standard conditions and 2.12/1.97 RALYGs following delay of 3/6 months. For 94 912 hospital COVID-19 admissions, there are 482 022 LYGs requiring 1 052 949 HCRUs. Hospitalisation of community-acquired COVID-19 patients yields on average per patient 5.08 LYG and 0.46 RALYGs. CONCLUSIONS: Modest delays in surgery for cancer incur significant impact on survival. Delay of 3/6 months in surgery for incident cancers would mitigate 19%/43% of LYGs, respectively, by hospitalisation of an equivalent volume of admissions for community-acquired COVID-19. This rises to 26%/59%, respectively, when considering RALYGs. To avoid a downstream public health crisis of avoidable cancer deaths, cancer diagnostic and surgical pathways must be maintained at normal throughput, with rapid attention to any backlog already accrued

Association between Common Germline Genetic Variation in 84 Candidate Genes/Regions and Risks of Ovarian Cancer.

Background: Recent studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the population that are associated with variations in the risks of many different diseases including cancers such as breast, prostate and colorectal. For ovarian cancer, the known highly penetrant susceptibility genes (BRCA1 and BRCA2) are probably responsible for only 40% of the excess familial ovarian cancer risks, suggesting that other susceptibility genes of lower penetrance exist. Methods: We have taken a candidate approach to identifying moderate risk susceptibility alleles for ovarian cancer. To date, we have genotyped 340 SNPs from 94 candidate genes or regions, in up to 1,491 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 3,145 unaffected controls from three different population based studies from the UK, Denmark and USA. Results: After adjusting for population stratification by genomic control, 18 SNPs (5.3%) were significant at the 5% level, and 5 SNPs (1.5%) were significant at the 1% level. The most significant association was for the SNP rs2107425, located on chromosome 11p15.5, which has previously been identified as a susceptibility allele for breast cancer from a genome wide association study (P-trend = 0.0012). When SNPs/genes were stratified into 7 different pathways or groups of validation SNPs, the breast cancer associated SNPs were the only group of SNPs that were significantly associated with ovarian cancer risk (P-heterogeneity = 0.0003; P-trend = 0.0028; adjusted (for population stratification) P-trend = 0.006). We did not find statistically significant associations when the combined data for all SNPs were analysed using an admixture maximum likelihood (AML) experiment-wise test for association (P-heterogeneity = 0.051; P-trend = 0.068). Conclusion: These data suggest that a proportion of the SNPs we evaluated were associated with ovarian cancer risk, but that the effect sizes were too small to detect associations with individual SNPs

An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

Background PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in ‘step’ changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Methods Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. Results In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. Conclusions The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer.The BCOS was funded by the Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI2007-3839). Funding for the POSH study was provided by Cancer Research UK (C1275/A9896, C1275/A11699, and C1275/A15956) and Breast Cancer Now (2005Nov63). PDPP is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge

Mutation analysis of the ATR gene in breast and ovarian cancer families

INTRODUCTION: Mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, TP53, CHK2 and PTEN account for only 20–30% of the familial aggregation of breast cancer, which suggests the involvement of additional susceptibility genes. The ATR (ataxia-telangiectasia- and Rad3-related) kinase is essential for the maintenance of genomic integrity. It functions both in parallel and cooperatively with ATM, but whereas ATM is primarily activated by DNA double-strand breaks induced by ionizing radiation, ATR has been shown to respond to a much broader range of DNA damage. Upon activation, ATR phosphorylates several important tumor suppressors, including p53, BRCA1 and CHK1. Based on its central function in the DNA damage response, ATR is a plausible candidate gene for susceptibility to cancer. METHODS: We screened the entire coding region of the ATR gene for mutations in affected index cases from 126 Finnish families with breast and/or ovarian cancer, 75 of which were classified as high-risk and 51 as moderate-risk families, by using conformation sensitive gel electrophoresis and direct sequencing. RESULTS: A large number of novel sequence variants were identified, four of which – Glu254Gly, Ser1142Gly, IVS24-48G>A and IVS26+15C>T – were absent from the tested control individuals (n = 300). However, the segregation of these mutations with the cancer phenotype could not be confirmed, partly because of the lack of suitable DNA samples. CONCLUSION: The present study does not support a major role for ATR mutations in hereditary susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer

Accuracy of Predicting the Genetic Risk of Disease Using a Genome-Wide Approach

Background - The prediction of the genetic disease risk of an individual is a powerful public health tool. While predicting risk has been successful in diseases which follow simple Mendelian inheritance, it has proven challenging in complex diseases for which a large number of loci contribute to the genetic variance. The large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphisms now available provide new opportunities for predicting genetic risk of complex diseases with high accuracy. Methodology/Principal Findings - We have derived simple deterministic formulae to predict the accuracy of predicted genetic risk from population or case control studies using a genome-wide approach and assuming a dichotomous disease phenotype with an underlying continuous liability. We show that the prediction equations are special cases of the more general problem of predicting the accuracy of estimates of genetic values of a continuous phenotype. Our predictive equations are responsive to all parameters that affect accuracy and they are independent of allele frequency and effect distributions. Deterministic prediction errors when tested by simulation were generally small. The common link among the expressions for accuracy is that they are best summarized as the product of the ratio of number of phenotypic records per number of risk loci and the observed heritability. Conclusions/Significance - This study advances the understanding of the relative power of case control and population studies of disease. The predictions represent an upper bound of accuracy which may be achievable with improved effect estimation methods. The formulae derived will help researchers determine an appropriate sample size to attain a certain accuracy when predicting genetic ris