The Myth Of Making Inferences For An Overall Treatment Efficacy With Data From Multiple Comparative Studies Via Meta-analysis

Meta analysis techniques, if applied appropriately, can provide a summary of the totality of evidence regarding an overall difference between a new treatment and a control group using data from multiple comparative clinical studies. The standard meta analysis procedures, however, may not give a meaningful between-group difference summary measure or identify a meaningful patient population of interest, especially when the fixed effect model assumption is not met. Moreover, a single between-group comparison measure without a reference value obtained from patients in the control arm would likely not be informative enough for clinical decision making. In this paper, we propose a simple, robust procedure based on a mixture population concept and provide a clinically meaningful group contrast summary for a well-defined target population. We use the data from a recent meta analysis for evaluating statin therapies with respect to the incidence of fatal stroke events to illustrate the issues associated with the standard meta analysis procedures as well as the advantages of our simple proposal

Renin–Angiotensin–Aldosterone System inhibitors in patients with Covid-19

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Prevalence of prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in patients with HFpEF and HFrEF and associated clinical outcomes

Purpose: The prevalence and consequences of prediabetic dysglycemia and undiagnosed diabetes is unknown in patients with heart failure (HF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and has not been compared to heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: We examined the prevalence and outcomes associated with normoglycemia, prediabetic dysglycemia and diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) among individuals with a baseline glycated hemoglobin (hemoglobin A1c, HbA1c) measurement stratified by HFrEF or HFpEF in the Candesartan in Heart failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity programme (CHARM). We studied the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death, and all-cause death, and estimated hazard ratios (HR) by use of multivariable Cox regression models. Results: HbA1c was measured at baseline in CHARM patients enrolled in the USA and Canada and was available in 1072/3023 (35%) of patients with HFpEF and 1578/4576 (34%) patients with HFrEF. 18 and 16% had normoglycemia (HbA1c < 6.0), 20 and 22% had prediabetes (HbA1c 6.0–6.4), respectively. Finally among patients with HFpEF 22% had undiagnosed diabetes (HbA1c > 6.4), and 40% had known diabetes (any HbA1c), with corresponding prevalence among HFrEF patients being 26 and 35%. The rates of both clinical outcomes of interest were higher in patients with undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes, compared to normoglycemic patients, irrespective of HF subtype, and in general higher among HFrEF patients. For the primary composite outcome among HFpEF patients, the HRs were 1.02 (95% CI 0.63–1.65) for prediabetes, HR 1.18 (0.75–1.86) for undiagnosed diabetes and 2.75 (1.83–4.11) for known diabetes, respectively, p value for trend across groups < 0.001. Dysglycemia was also associated with worse outcomes in HFrEF. Conclusions: These findings confirm the remarkably high prevalence of dysglycemia in heart failure irrespective of ejection fraction phenotype, and demonstrate that dysglycemia is associated with a higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes, even before the diagnosis of diabetes and institution of glucose lowering therapy in patients with HFpEF as well as HFrEF

C-Reactive protein and risk of ESRD: results from the Trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events With Aranesp Therapy (TREAT)

Background: To better understand a potential association of elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level with progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), we examined the relationship of CRP level with the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the Trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events With Aranesp Therapy (TREAT). Study Design Post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial. Setting & Participants: 4,038 patients with type 2 diabetes, CKD, and anemia in TREAT. Predictor: Baseline serum CRP concentrations. Outcomes: The primary outcome was development of ESRD; secondary outcomes included doubling of serum creatinine level, a composite of ESRD/serum creatinine doubling, and a composite of death or ESRD. Measurements: We fit unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression models to test the association of baseline CRP level with time to the development of the outcomes of interest. Results: Mean age of participants was 67 years, 43% were men, and 64% were white. Approximately half (48%) the patients had CRP levels > 3.0 mg/L; 668 patients developed ESRD, and 1,270 developed the composite outcome of death or ESRD. Compared with patients with baseline CRP levels ≤ 3.0 mg/L, those with moderately/markedly elevated CRP levels (≥6.9 mg/L; 24% of patients) had a higher adjusted risk for ESRD (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.07-1.63) and the composite outcome of death or ESRD (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.21-1.64). Although nonsignificant, similar trends were noted in competing-risk models. Limitations: Results may not be generalizable to nondiabetic CKD or diabetic CKD in the absence of anemia. Conclusions: Elevated baseline CRP levels are common in type 2 diabetic patients with anemia and CKD and are associated with the future development of ESRD and the composite of death or ESRD

Cardiovascular safety of drugs not intended for cardiovascular use: need for a new conceptual basis for assessment and approval

Recently, several drugs for non-cardiovascular diseases have ceased marketing because of cardiovascular risk, highlighting the importance of evaluating the cardiovascular safety of new drugs even if not intended for cardiovascular diseases. Assessing and ensuring acceptable cardiovascular safety of non-cardiovascular drugs is difficult; nonetheless, governmental regulatory agencies are likely to change the requirements for drug safety information. This article explores our recommendations for rethinking current regulatory policies, emphasizing the need for mandatory post-marketing surveillance registries and highlighting the exposures necessary to subserve the need for greater assessment of safety issue

Risks and Benefits of Oral Anticoagulation Compared With Clopidogrel Plus Aspirin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation According to Stroke Risk

Background and Purpose— In ACTIVE-W, oral anticoagulation (OAC) was more efficacious than combined clopidogrel plus aspirin (C+A) in preventing vascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation. However, because OAC carries important bleeding complications, risk stratification schemes have been devised to identify patients for whom the absolute benefits of OAC exceed its risks. Methods— Participants were risk-stratified with the widely-used CHADS 2 scheme. Treatment-specific rates of stroke and major bleeding were calculated for patients with a CHADS 2 =1 and compared to those with a CHADS 2 >1. Results— Observed stroke rates for those with a CHADS 2 =1 were 1.25% per year on C+A and 0.43% per year on OAC (RR=2.96, 95% CI: 1.26 to 6.98, P =0.01). Among patients with a CHADS 2 >1, the stroke rates were 3.15% per year on C+A and 2.01% per year on OAC (RR=1.58, 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.24, P =0.01) ( P for interaction between stroke risk category and efficacy of OAC=0.19). The risk of major bleeding during OAC was significantly lower among patients with CHADS 2 =1 (1.36% per year) compared with CHADS 2 >1 (2.75% per year) (RR=0.49, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.79, P =0.003). Conclusions— In this clinical trial, patients with a CHADS 2 =1 had a low risk of stroke, yet still derived a modest (<1% per year) but statistically significant absolute reduction in stroke with OAC and had low rates of major hemorrhage on OAC

Acute Decline in Renal Function, Inflammation, and Cardiovascular Risk after an Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background and objectives: Chronic kidney disease is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. The prognostic significance of worsening renal function has also been shown in various cohorts of cardiac disease; however, the predictors of worsening renal function and the contribution of inflammation remains to be established. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: Worsening renal function was defined as a 25% or more decrease in estimated GFR (eGFR) over a 1-mo period in patients after a non-ST or ST elevation acute coronary syndromes participating in the Aggrastat-to-Zocor Trial; this occurred in 5% of the 3795 participants. Results: A baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) in the fourth quartile was a significant predictor of developing worsening renal function (odds ratio, 2.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.49, 4.14). After adjusting for baseline CRP and eGFR, worsening renal function remained a strong multivariate predictor for the combined cardiovascular composite of CV death, recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure or stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.1, 2.3). Conclusions: Patients with an early decline in renal function after an acute coronary syndrome are at a significant increased risk for recurrent cardiovascular events. CRP is an independent predictor for subsequent decline in renal function and reinforces the idea that inflammation may be related to the pathophysiology of progressive renal disease