Assessing the risk of pre-existing grievances in non-democracies: The conditional effect of natural disasters on repression

Every disaster carries the risk of destruction but not every disaster prompts violent political process in a country. This article examines the popular argument that natural disasters can lead to higher state violence if resulting shocks caused by a disaster add to pre-existing grievances. If economic inequality or political instability is prevalent before a disaster occurs, disasters are expected to exacerbate the perceived threat to government's survival in office. Consequently, repression is expected to be higher in the aftermath of a disaster. I test the existence of the expected conditional effect of pre-disaster stability and disasters using cross-national data on natural rapid-onset disasters in non-democracies between 1976 and 2013. As indicators for pre-existing grievances this article focuses on ex ante economic inequality and political dissent. While a natural disaster as such is not associated with a violation of human rights, empirical evidence suggests that the probability of an increase in post-disaster repression is higher when a country has previously experienced grievances

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany

Objectives: The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid-19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low. Method: Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number of protest events in a sample of 401 German districts over the period from March to May 2020. Results: We find robust positive predicted effects of the stringency of containment policies and negative predicted effects for the mortality rate and the strengths of mainstream parties. Conclusion: We interpret these findings as evidence of the strategic behavior of protest organizers that target protest participation and mobilization to keep the movement alive and potentially grow it

Private Provision of Public Goods and Political Survival: Rail Transport in Four European Democracies in the 20th Century

The provision of public goods plays a key role in the survival of leaders in democracies. Assuming that mass rail transport shares many of the characteristics of public goods, we claim that the public provision of railway services is more beneficial for political leaders in democracies than private provision. To estimate the effect of the type of provision of railway services on leader survival, we use new data on four European democracies that present variation in the public and private ownership of rail miles between 1913 and 1981. We find that the private provision of rail transport increases the hazard rates of leader deposition in these democracies. These results bear crucial implications, as they help to explain the sweeping policies of nationalization of public services that took place in the first half of the 20th Century in Western Europe

Gender-Publication-Gap als Thema in der universitären Gleichstellungsarbeit. Befunde, offene Fragen und Maßnahmen

Die Autorinnen zeigen auf der Grundlage vor allem auch internationaler Analysen, wie sich die Benachteiligung von Wissenschaftlerinnen in deren Publikationsportfolios niederschlägt. Herausgearbeitet wird, welche Ansätze es auf Seite der Hochschulen gibt und geben kann, um das Gender-Publication-Gap und andere geschlechtsspezifische Benachteiligungen in der Wissenschaft auf der strukturellen Ebene abzubauen. (DIPF/Orig.)In this article, the gender equality team of the Faculty of Education at the University of Duisburg-Essen addresses potential reasons and possible interventions for the prevailing publication disparity between female scholars and their male colleagues. The gender-publication-gap will be discussed as an indicator for the structural and multidimensional disadvantage of women in the science system. We will discuss some of the possibilities how the situation of women can be improved, especially during qualification phases, through individual support as well as institutional measures to counteract the complex barriers in academia. (DIPF/Orig.

A major change in precipitation gradient on the Chinese Loess Plateau at thePliocene-Quaternary boundary

Spatiotemporal variations in East Asian Monsoon (EAM) precipitation during the Quaternary have been intensively studied. However, spatial variations in pre-Quaternary EAM precipitation remain largely uninvestigated, preventing a clear understanding of monsoon dynamics during a warmer climatic period. Here we compare the spatial differences in heavy mineral assemblages between Quaternary loess and pre-Quaternary Red Clay on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) to analyze spatial patterns in weathering. Prior studies have revealed that unstable hornblende is the dominant (&sim;50%) heavy mineral in Chinese loess deposited over the past 500 ka, whereas hornblende content decreases to &lt; 10% in strata older than &sim;1 Ma in the central CLP because of diagenesis. In the present study we found that hornblende is the dominant heavy mineral in 2&ndash;2.7 Ma loess on the northeastern CLP (at Jiaxian), which today receives little precipitation. Conversely, hornblende content in the upper Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay at Jiaxian is &lt; 10%, as in the central CLP. The early Quaternary abundance of hornblende at Jiaxian indicates that the current northwestward-decreasing precipitation pattern and consequent dry climate at Jiaxian must have been initiated since &sim;2.7 Ma, preventing hornblende dissolution to amounts &lt; 10% as observed in the central CLP. By contrast, the 7 Ma and 3 Ma Jiaxian Red Clay hornblende content is significantly less than that of the Xifeng samples, despite the fact that today Xifeng receives more precipitation than Jiaxian, with expected enhanced hornblende weathering. This suggests that the northeastern CLP received more precipitation during the Late Miocene-Pliocene than at Xifeng, indicating that the precipitation gradient on the CLP was more east&ndash;west during the Late Miocene-Pliocene rather than northwestsoutheast as it was in the Quaternary. A comparison of magnetic susceptibility records for these sections confirms this inference. We attribute this major change in climatic patterns at &sim;2.7 Ma to decreased northward moisture transportation associated with Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooling in the Quaternary. This study therefore demonstrates the potential usefulness of employing heavy mineral analysis in both paleoclimatic and paleooceanographic reconstructions.<br style="line-height: normal; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-size-adjust: auto;" /

Evaluation der Berufseinstiegsbegleitung nach § 421s SGB III: Zwischenbericht 2011

Die Anforderungen an Schülerinnen und Schüler zwei Jahre vor ihrem Schulabschluss sind hoch. Schulisch sind sie mit vielen Prüfungen gefordert. Daneben müssen sie Bewerbungen für Ausbildungsplätze schreiben. Wenn es zum Bewerbungsgespräch kommt, stehen sie vor einer unbekannten Situation. Viele sind unsicher darüber, wie es nach der Schule weitergeht. Das Berufsleben - später meist selbstverständlich - ist die große Unbekannte. In dieser Phase hilft die Berufseinstiegsbegleitung nach dem Arbeitsförderungsrecht derzeit in einer modellhaften Erprobung an rund 1.000 Schulen denjenigen, die besondere Schwierigkeiten beim Schulabschluss und beim Übergang in die berufliche Zukunft haben. Bisher wurden dabei rund 37.000 Schülerinnen und Schülern durch die Bundesagentur für Arbeit gefördert. Die begleitende Wirkungsforschung (Evaluation) zeigt nun, dass sich bei den Teilnehmenden leichte Verbesserungen der Noten in Mathematik, Deutsch und Englisch zeigen. Von denjenigen, die die Schule „in Begleitung“ verlassen haben, haben 22,8 % eine betriebliche und 5,1 % eine schulische Berufsausbildung begonnen. Vergleichszahlen zu Übergängen von der Schule in den Beruf von jungen Menschen "ohne entsprechende Begleitung" liegen noch nicht vor. Nach der Schule verteilen sich die Schülerinnen und Schüler auf verschiedene Betriebe, Berufsschulen und andere Einrichtungen. Für die Tätigkeit der Berufseinstiegsbegleiterinnen und -begleiter stellt dies eine räumliche und eine organisatorische Herausforderung dar. Denn die Berufseinstiegsbegleitung endet in der Berufsausbildung normalerweise erst nach sechs Monaten. Damit soll die kritische Anfangsphase, in der die meisten Abbrüche stattfinden, stabilisiert werden. Die bisherigen positiven Erfahrungen mit der Berufseinstiegsbegleitung haben die Bundesregierung dazu veranlasst, im Entwurf eines Gesetzes zur Verbesserung der Eingliederungschancen am Arbeitsmarkt die Entfristung der Berufseinstiegsbegleitung vorzuschlagen. Der Deutsche Bundestag hat dieses Gesetz am 23. September 2011 verabschiedet

Hidden Homophobia in Soccer: Evidence from a List Experiment (Working Title)

The project designs a list experiment to measure open and covert homophobia in soccer. While conventional survey methods allow researchers to study homophobic attitudes with direct questions, the item-count technique reveals the extent of agreement with a socially undesirable statement by providing respondents with an additional layer of privacy. Overall, we use six indicators of homophobia in amateur and professional soccer respectively. The sample is randomly divided into two groups. The control group receives a list of four neutral statements, whereas the treatment group receives the identical list plus the sensitive item. We further collect evidence of open homophobia by letting respondents in the control group answer directly to each sensitive item

Is football coming out? Anti-gay attitudes, social desirability, and pluralistic ignorance in amateur and professional football

Past work consistently points to improved attitudes towards gay athletes and growing support for homosexuality, yet reports of a homophobic climate in amateur and professional football persist. Here, we explore two potential explanations for the prevalence of homophobia in football despite low levels of anti-gay attitudes: social desirability and pluralistic ignorance. We conduct an online survey among a football-affine and socio-demographically diverse sample in the UK. We find that anti-gay attitudes are rare. Importantly, estimates from a list experiment do not differ from the prevalence measured by direct questions, providing no evidence of social desirability. By contrast, second-order beliefs about anti-gay attitudes substantially and consistently exceed attitudes, pointing towards pluralistic ignorance as the most likely explanation. We conclude by emphasizing the need for transparent communication to reduce pluralistic ignorance and correct misperceptions among players, officials and supporters

Querdenken: the German anti-lockdown movement that thrives on public distrust

The German anti-lockdown Querdenken movement, which has now pivoted to an anti-vaccination stance, was highly strategic in where and how it mobilised protestors. While it failed to have a significant influence on the German election, say Katharina Pfaff (Vienna University of Economics and Business), Eric Neumayer (LSE) and Thomas Plümper (Vienna University of Economics and Business), the organisers are likely to exploit future opportunities for anti-establishment protest