LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models

Recent advancements in the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have paved the way for a myriad of groundbreaking applications in various fields. However, a significant challenge arises as these models often "hallucinate", i.e., fabricate facts without providing users an apparent means to discern the veracity of their statements. Uncertainty estimation (UE) methods are one path to safer, more responsible, and more effective use of LLMs. However, to date, research on UE methods for LLMs has been focused primarily on theoretical rather than engineering contributions. In this work, we tackle this issue by introducing LM-Polygraph, a framework with implementations of a battery of state-of-the-art UE methods for LLMs in text generation tasks, with unified program interfaces in Python. Additionally, it introduces an extendable benchmark for consistent evaluation of UE techniques by researchers, and a demo web application that enriches the standard chat dialog with confidence scores, empowering end-users to discern unreliable responses. LM-Polygraph is compatible with the most recent LLMs, including BLOOMz, LLaMA-2, ChatGPT, and GPT-4, and is designed to support future releases of similarly-styled LMs.Comment: Accepted at EMNLP-202

Quintessence of the forensic methodology for investigating illegal acts committed by foreign nationals

Currently, there is a natural and labor migration, which is also the reason for the growth of crimes committed by foreigners. The purpose of the study is to make a complete algorithmized design of the organizational and procedural measures integrated into the methodology of investigation of any crime, the subject of which is a foreigner. Research methods: analysis of statistical data, survey, analysis and synthesis of comparative research of criminal cases, legal rules, fundamental scientific research, deduction. The novelty of the results: in the work, an algorithm in a synthesized form is created, which can be applied without additional processing by an employee of any law enforcement agency that investigates a crime committed by a foreigner

Causes and consequences of the streambed restructuring of the Koiavgan Creek (North Caucasus, Russia)

The restructuring of the lower reach of the Koiavgan Creek channel (the right bank tributary of the Djankuat River) occurred on 1 July 2015 after continuous rainfall with a total precipitation amount of 227 mm. This led to the breakthrough of the Djankuat Glacier lateral moraine. The lower reach of the creek channel was initially formed at the junction of the bedrock slopes and lateral moraine and descended sharply at the end of the moraine to a wide glacial valley of the Djankuat River. The part of the channel from the end of the moraine line to the creek’s outlet in the bottom of the glacial valley had a height difference of 125 m at a distance of about 250 m. The active landslide has been recorded in the place of future breakthrough based on interpretation of 2014 summer satellite image. The linear erosion began to form on the wall of the disruption. Thermokarst processes probably also contributed to this breakthrough. The total volume of sediment eroded during the breakthrough and for four years after is 156 500 m3. The breakthrough has formed the largest sediment cone 300 meters wide and more than 200 m long in the bottom of the Djankuat River valley

Quintessence of the forensic methodology for investigating illegal acts committed by foreign nationals

Currently, there is a natural and labor migration, which is also the reason for the growth of crimes committed by foreigners. The purpose of the study is to make a complete algorithmized design of the organizational and procedural measures integrated into the methodology of investigation of any crime, the subject of which is a foreigner. Research methods: analysis of statistical data, survey, analysis and synthesis of comparative research of criminal cases, legal rules, fundamental scientific research, deduction. The novelty of the results: in the work, an algorithm in a synthesized form is created, which can be applied without additional processing by an employee of any law enforcement agency that investigates a crime committed by a foreigner

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards inthe Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburstfloods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved under-standing of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debrisflow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigatepotential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fillperiodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst in-creases as water volume may change dramatically over very shortperiods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entireprocess may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are ofparticular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lakecomplex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for theanalysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes,their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and developmentof debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The differentTeztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according tofield observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years onaverage. The most important event in the area dates back to1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Othersmaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study showsthat the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination ofintense precipitation during the days preceding the event and arapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrain-ment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume ofabout 200,000 m3, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m3s−1and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s−1. Results of this study arekey for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for theassessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks inthe region

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?

International audienceAbstract. The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers resulting in massive ice–rock avalanches have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unrecognized low-angle glacier detachments have been recognized and described, and new ones have occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare, and discuss 20 actual or suspected large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at 10 different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Altai, the North American Cordillera, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. The similarities and differences between the presented cases indicate that glacier detachments often involve a coincidental combination of factors related to the lowering of basal friction, high or increasing driving stresses, concentration of shear stress, or low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly soft glacier beds seem to be a common condition among the observed events as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and the underlying substrate and are prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Partially or fully thawed glacier bed conditions and the presence of liquid water could thus play an important role in the detachments. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10∘ and 20∘. This may be low enough to enable the development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers while also being steep enough to allow critical driving stresses to build up. We construct a simple slab model to estimate ranges of glacier slope and width above which a glacier may be able to detach when extensively losing basal resistance. From this model we estimate that all the detachments described in this study occurred due to a basal shear stress reduction of more than 50 %. Most of the ice–rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 5∘, likely due to their high ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the availability of soft basal slurries, and large amounts of basal water, as well as the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments and their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers indicate the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as endmembers of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear to be more frequent than commonly thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?

The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers resulting in massive ice–rock avalanches have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unrecognized low-angle glacier detachments have been recognized and described, and new ones have occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare, and discuss 20 actual or suspected large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at 10 different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Altai, the North American Cordillera, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. The similarities and differences between the presented cases indicate that glacier detachments often involve a coincidental combination of factors related to the lowering of basal friction, high or increasing driving stresses, concentration of shear stress, or low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly soft glacier beds seem to be a common condition among the observed events as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and the underlying substrate and are prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Partially or fully thawed glacier bed conditions and the presence of liquid water could thus play an important role in the detachments. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10∘ and 20∘. This may be low enough to enable the development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers while also being steep enough to allow critical driving stresses to build up. We construct a simple slab model to estimate ranges of glacier slope and width above which a glacier may be able to detach when extensively losing basal resistance. From this model we estimate that all the detachments described in this study occurred due to a basal shear stress reduction of more than 50 %. Most of the ice–rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 5∘, likely due to their high,ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the availability of soft basal slurries, and large amounts of basal water, as well as the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments and their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers indicate the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as endmembers of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear to be more frequent than commonly thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically

Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan

Climate change has been shown to increase the number of mountain lakes across various mountain ranges in the World. In Central Asia, and in particular on the territory of Uzbekistan, a detailed assessment of glacier lakes and their evolution over time is, however lacking. For this reason we created the first detailed inventory of mountain lakes of Uzbekistan based on recent (2002–2014) satellite observations using WorldView-2, SPOT5, and IKONOS imagery with a spatial resolution from 2 to 10 m. This record was complemented with data from field studies of the last 50 years. The previous data were mostly in the form of inventories of lakes, available in Soviet archives, and primarily included localized in-situ data. The inventory of mountain lakes presented here, by contrast, includes an overview of all lakes of the territory of Uzbekistan. Lakes were considered if they were located at altitudes above 1500 m and if lakes had an area exceeding 100 m2. As in other mountain regions of the World, the ongoing increase of air temperatures has led to an increase in lake number and area. Moreover, the frequency and overall number of lake outburst events have been on the rise as well. Therefore, we also present the first outburst assessment with an updated version of well-known approaches considering local climate features and event histories. As a result, out of the 242 lakes identified on the territory of Uzbekistan, 15% are considered prone to outburst, 10% of these lakes have been assigned low outburst potential and the remainder of the lakes have an average level of outburst potential. We conclude that the distribution of lakes by elevation shows a significant influence on lake area and hazard potential. No significant differences, by contrast, exist between the distribution of lake area, outburst potential, and lake location with respect to glaciers by regions