20 research outputs found
DO ICT AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT FACILITATE SUPPLY CHAIN TRADE?
This paper aims to estimate the impact of ICT and technological development of
countries on supply chain trade. As proxy measures of supply chain trade, the
author applies domestic value added (DVAFX) included in gross-foreign exports,
and foreign-value added included in domestic exports (FVA) from the Eora MRIO
database while constructing the ICT variable by using confirmatory factor
analysis. Furthermore, as a proxy variable for the countryās technological
development, the author applies the economic complexity index developed by
Harvardās Growth Lab, conducting her analysis based on the structural gravity
model estimated with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator
(PPML). Together with the standard gravity regressors, the model includes the
bilateral position of countries in the supply chain. Our panel dataset covers the
2000-2019 period, including 130 world countries. To control for the potential
source of endogeneity, the model includes reporter and partner country fixed
effects, yearly fixed effects, and country-pair fixed effects. The results confirm a
statistically significant relationship between the countryās technological
development and supply-chain trade. Technological development enables a
country to produce more complex, higher value-added products and thus to be
more upstream positioned in the supply chain. The more upstream the country is in
the supply chain, the higher the domestic value added is included in its exports
The impact of economic policy on shipper businesses in coastal line maritime passenger transport in Croatia
Coastal line maritime passenger transport in the Republic of Croatia, as well as in other EU member states, is regulated through various regulations and legislation, which in turn result in numerous national laws and regulations that affect its development, all of which is legally binding for shippers. Scheduled maritime passenger transport is an extremely important form of transport for the Republic of Croatia since it is the only form of connection with the mainland for many islands. This paper analyses economic policy measures that affect the organization and implementation of coastal line maritime passenger transport. The paper also investigates the demand fluctuation for maritime passenger transport services. The aid measures provided by the state to individual sectors is also analysed, as well as aid for the provision of services of general economic interest. The aim of this paper is to assess the amount of aid granted to maritime transport and its importance, especially in coastal line maritime passenger transport. The paper also explains the importance of establishing the Coastal Liner Services Agency as a regulatory body of the Republic of Croatia, and it further analyses the subsidy amounts granted to shippers in the period from 2014 to 2020
The Importance of Logistics Distribution Centers as Nodes in Logistics Networks
The emergence of logistics distribution centers has in the past few decades become a mass phenomenon that has emerged as a result of global economic processes. As part of logistics networks, logistics distribution centers are the key link between production and the market, i.e. end users, and function as nodes that facilitate international business activities. For this reason, the aim of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of logistics distribution centers on the example of logistics distribution centers of the selected Western and Central European Union countries and examine the prospects for the development of logistics distribution centers in Croatia. The research results indicate that the Republic of Croatia is less competitive in comparison with Western and Central European countries, although it has a number of logistics distribution centers due to insufficient utilization and renewal of transport infrastructure. Logistics distribution centers are an important center of logistics networks, and the countries will have to devote more attention to their development to attract foreign investment and achieve economic development, because their significance will continue to grow in the future
Trade Logistics ā the Gravity Model Approach
Tijekom proteklog desetljeÄa, brojni su radovi pokuÅ”ali istražiti odluÄujuÄi utjecaj olakÅ”avanja trgovine, tzv. ātrade facilitationā, na meÄunarodnu trgovinu. Od liberalizacije trgovine i smanjenja carina, drugi faktori koji olakÅ”avaju trgovinu stavljeni su u prvi plan. Pod olakÅ”avanjem trgovine smatraju se sve mjere koje smanjuju trgovinske troÅ”kove, a koji ne obuhvaÄaju snižavanje carina. Stoga je cilj ovog istraživanja empirijski istražiti utjecaj faktora olakÅ”avanja trgovine na meÄunarodnu trgovinu s aspekta logistike, uzimajuÄi pritom u obzir scenarij u kojem su zemlje uvoznice zemlje niskog, srednjeg ili visokog dohotka. Kako bismo procijenili uÄinke faktora olakÅ”avanja trgovine, u radu koristimo proÅ”ireni gravitacijski model na podacima za 150 zemalja svijeta u razdoblju od 2007. do 2016. godine. Indeks logistiÄkih performansi (LPI) koji izdaje Svjetska banka koristi se kao āproxyā varijabla za olakÅ”avanje trgovine. Rezultati procjene pokazuju da su sve koriÅ”tene varijable znaÄajne i rezultati su u skladu s inicijalnom hipotezom, Å”to upuÄuje na to da Äe se s olakÅ”avanjem trgovine poveÄavati i meÄunarodna trgovina. Rezultati nas takoÄer dovode do zakljuÄka da su logistiÄke performanse izvoznika važnije od logistiÄkih performansi uvoznika. Ovo istraživanje podupire smjernice Svjetske banke vezane uz potrebu ulaganja u olakÅ”avanje trgovine kako bi se osigurali niži trgovinski troÅ”kovi koji predstavljaju prepreku poveÄanju meÄunarodne trgovine.Over the past decade, a number of papers attempt to capture the decisive impact of trade facilitation on international trade. Since the emergence of trade liberalization and tarrif reduction, trade facilitation analysis has been put in the spotlight. Trade facilitation is defined as all measures that reduce trade costs other than lowering tariffs. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of trade facilitation from the logistics perspective on international trade distinguishing between low, middle and high income importing countries. We used the augmented gravity model to estimate this relationship across 150 countries within the period 2007-2016. The Logistic Performance Index (LPI) created by the World Bank is used as a proxy variable for trade facilitation. The results of our analysis show that all used variables are significant and show the expected signs correspondingly to our hypotheses, suggesting that trade will increase with trade facilitation. The results also lead to the conclusion that exporter logistics performance seems to be more important than importer logistics performance. This paper supports the World Bank trade facilitation initiatives to assure lower trade costs as they serve as a barrier to enjoying the benefits of increased trade
ANALIZA E-TRGOVINE VINA U EUROPI NAKON COVID-19 PANDEMIJE
Vinogradarstvo i vinarstvo u Europi imaju dugu i bogatu tradiciju, Å”toviÅ”e Europa je vodeÄi
proizvoÄaÄ vina u svijetu. Iako se vino uvijek vezivalo uz tradicionalnu fiziÄku prodaju u
vinarijama, vinotekama i/ili marketima, pandemija Covid-19 velikim je dijelom utjecala na
eksponencijalni rast e-trgovine vina. Porast online potražnje za vinom te brze promjene
preferencija potroÅ”aÄa prouzroÄile su rast online platformi prodaje vina. Cilj je ovog rada
analizirati e-trgovinu vina u Europi, odnosno u Italiji, Francuskoj, Å panjolskoj i Ujedinjenom
Kraljevstvu kao nekima od vodeÄih svjetskih proizvoÄaÄa i/ili potroÅ”aÄa vina te istražiti
vodeÄe online platforme u tim zemljama koje su se specijalizirale u e-trgovini vinom. Analiza
se temelji na posljednjim dostupnim statistiÄkim podacima za 2021. godinu. Rezultati analize
ukazuju na rastuÄi trend e-trgovine koji bi se trebao nastaviti i u nadolazeÄem razdoblju.
TakoÄer, analiza ukazuje na promjene preferencija potroÅ”aÄa koji su u velikoj mjeri zadržali
navike kupnje putem e-kanala i nakon pandemije
Do ICT and technological development facilitate supply chain trade?
Cilj ovog rada jest procijeniti uÄinke IKT-a i tehnoloÅ”kog razvoja zemalja na
trgovinu u opskrbnom lancu. Kao zavisne varijable koje predstavljaju trgovinu
lancem opskrbe su koriste se domaÄa dodana vrijednost (DVAFX) ukljuÄena u
bruto inozemni izvoz i strana dodana vrijednost ukljuÄena u domaÄi izvoz (FVA).
IKT varijabla je dobivena pomoÄu potvrdne faktorske analize, dok se za varijablu
tehnoloŔki razvoj zemlje koristi Indeks ekonomske složenosti, razvijen od strane
Harvardās Growth Lab. Analiza se temelji na strukturnom gravitacijskom modelu,
a model se procjenjuje Poissonovim procjeniteljem pseudo-maksimalne vjerodo-
stojnosti (PPML). Uz standardni set gravitacijskih varijabli, model ukljuÄuje
bilateralni položaj zemalja u opskrbnom lancu. Panel podaci obuhvaÄaju
razdoblje od 2000. do 2019. i ukljuÄuju 130 zemalja svijeta. Kako bi se kontrolirao
potencijalni izvor endogenosti, u model se ukljuÄuju fiksni uÄinci zemalja izvoznica
i partnera, fiksni uÄinci trgovinskih parova i godiÅ”nji fiksni uÄinci. Rezultati
regresijske analize potvrÄuju statistiÄki znaÄajnu vezu izmeÄu tehnoloÅ”kog razvoja
zemlje i trgovine u opskrbnom lancu. TehnoloÅ”ki razvoj omoguÄuje zemlji
proizvodnju složenijih proizvoda s veÄom dodanom vrijednoÅ”Äu i time viÅ”u poziciju
u opskrbnom lancu. Å to je zemlja uzvodnije u opskrbnom lancu, to je viÅ”e domaÄe
dodane vrijednosti sadržano u njezinom izvozuThis paper aims to estimate the impact of ICT and technological development of
countries on supply chain trade. As proxy measures of supply chain trade, the
author applies domestic value added (DVAFX) included in gross-foreign exports,
and foreign-value added included in domestic exports (FVA) from the Eora MRIO
database while constructing the ICT variable by using confirmatory factor
analysis. Furthermore, as a proxy variable for the countryās technological
development, the author applies the economic complexity index developed by
Harvardās Growth Lab, conducting her analysis based on the structural gravity
model estimated with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator
(PPML). Together with the standard gravity regressors, the model includes the
bilateral position of countries in the supply chain. Our panel dataset covers the
2000-2019 period, including 130 world countries. To control for the potential
source of endogeneity, the model includes reporter and partner country fixed
effects, yearly fixed effects, and country-pair fixed effects. The results confirm a
statistically significant relationship between the countryās technological
development and supply-chain trade. Technological development enables a
country to produce more complex, higher value-added products and thus to be
more upstream positioned in the supply chain. The more upstream the country is in
the supply chain, the higher the domestic value added is included in its exports
UÄinci transportne infrastrukture i logistiÄke usluge na meÄunarodnu trgovinu i ekonomski rast: sluÄaj zemalja Älanica srednje i istoÄne Europe (CEMS)
The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of transport infrastructure and logistics performance on international trade and economic growth in the Central and Eastern European Union Member States (CEMS). The dissertation is divided in three separate and interrelated research papers. In the first research paper, the question of the role of transport infrastructure in the economy is revisited through the construction of two empirical econometric models.
The first model estimates the impact of road and rail infrastructure on economic growth, considering population growth, investment in infrastructure and trade openness. The second model is used to check the robustness of the first model and follows the Aschauer's (1989) aggregate production function. The analysis is based on a panel data regression with fixed effects estimator (FE). The results of the first model show a significant and positive relationship between road infrastructure and economic output, and significant but negative relationship between rail infrastructure and economic output. The results of the estimation of aggregate production function suggest that among all types of infrastructure, only road transport infrastructure shows significant positive effects on economic output. Although overall results show inconclusive results, they should be seen in a broader context where transport infrastructure is a public good and investment in it is necessary to ensure the territorial, economic and social cohesion of CEMS countries. The second research paper examines the impact of logistics performance on bilateral trade of the EU15 and CEMS countries. The analysis is based on a structural gravity model estimated with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML). The results show that there is a significant relationship between logistics performance and EU15 and the CEMS bilateral trade, with heterogeneous effects of the elements of logistics performance on trade in different product groups.
The third research paper incorporates other elements of logistics performance and trade facilitation, i.e., hard and soft infrastructure, into international trade in addition to logistics performance. The aim is to assess the impact of trade facilitation, distinguishing between traditional trade and supply chain trade. In the first step, factor analysis is used to construct indicators of trade facilitation. In the second step, the effects of trade facilitation indicators on gross trade and trade value added data are estimated with the empirical model specification based on a structural gravity model. To address the issues of heteroscedasticity and zero trade values, the PPML estimator is also used. The
results suggest that different elements of trade facilitation are significant and have different degrees of relevance to traditional and supply chain trade. The findings obtained in the dissertation contribute to the existing body of knowledge in this research area from a theoretical and applicative perspective and offer recommendations for potential improvements in the areas of transportation, logistics, and trade facilitation.Cilj ove disertacije je istražiti utjecaj transportne infrastrukture i logistiÄke usluge na meÄunarodnu trgovinu i gospodarski rast u zemljama srednje i istoÄne Europe (CEMS), Älanicama Europske unije. Disertacija je podijeljena u tri zasebna i meÄusobno povezana znanstvena rada. U prvom istraživaÄkom radu se preispituje pitanje uloge transportne infrastrukture u gospodarstvu na temelju dva empirijska ekonometrijska modela. U prvom modelu se procjenjuju uÄinci cestovne i željezniÄke infrastrukture na gospodarski rast, kontrolirajuÄi pritom rast stanovniÅ”tva, ulaganja u infrastrukturu i otvorenost trgovine. Drugi se model koristi za provjeru robusnosti prvog modela i temelji se na agregatnoj proizvodnoj funkciji koju je koristio Aschauer (1989.) u svom radu. Analiza se temelji na regresiji panel podataka s procjeniteljem fiksnih uÄinaka (FE).
Rezultati prvog modela pokazuju znaÄajnu i pozitivnu vezu izmeÄu cestovne transportne infrastrukture i gospodarskog rasta, ali i znaÄajnu negativnu vezu izmeÄu željezniÄke infrastrukture i ekonomskog rasta. Rezultati procjene agregatne proizvodne funkcije ukazuju na to kako od svih promatranih vrsta transportne infrastrukture, jedino cestovna intrastruktura ima znaÄajne pozitivne uÄinke na ekonomski rast, dok rezultati za ostale vrste infrastrukture nisu statistiÄki znaÄajni. Premda cjelokupni rezultati pokazuju nesignificantne rezultate, treba ih promatrati u Å”irem kontekstu, jer je transportna infrastruktura javno dobro i ulaganje u nju potrebno je kako bi se ostvarila teritorijalna, ekonomska i socijalna kohezija zemalja CEMS. U drugom istraživaÄkom radu se analizira uÄinak logistiÄkih performansi na bilateralnu trgovinu zemalja EU15 i CEMS. Analiza se temelji na strukturnom gravitacijskom modelu koji se procjenjuje s Procjeniteljem pseudo maksimalne vjerodostojnosti (PPML). Rezultati procjene pokazuju da postoji znaÄajna veza izmeÄu logistiÄkih performansi bilateralne trgovine EU15 i CEMS zemalja, meÄutim razliÄiti elementi logistiÄkih performansi imaju razliÄite uÄinke ovisno o grupama proizvoda kojima se trguje.
U treÄem istraživaÄkom radu su ukljuÄeni i drugi elementi logistiÄkih performansi, kao Å”to je tvrda i meka infrastruktura, koja može imati uÄinke na meÄunarodnu trgovinu. Cilj treÄeg rada jest procijeniti utjecaj tvrde i meke infrastrukture na tradicionalnu trgovinu i trgovinu kroz opskrbni lanac. Kako bi se konstruirale varijable olakÅ”avanja trgovine, odnosno tvrde i meke infrastrukture, u prvom koraku analize se koristi faktorska analiza. U drugom koraku se koristi strukturni gravitacijski model kako s PPML procjeniteljem kako bi se procijenili uÄinci tvrde i meke infrastrukture na trgovinu. PPML procjenitelj se koristi kako bi se rijeÅ”io problem heteroskedastiÄnosti i nula vrijednosti trgovine. Rezultati analize sugeriraju kako su razliÄiti elementi olakÅ”avanja trgovine, odnosno tvrda i meka infrastruktura znaÄajni i da imaju razliÄite stupnjeve relevantnosti za tradicionalnu trgovinu i trgovinu u lancu opskrbe. Rezultati disertacije doprinose postojeÄem znanju u podruÄju istraživanja iz teorijske i aplikativne perspektive i nude preporuke za moguÄa poboljÅ”anja u podruÄjima prometa, logistike, olakÅ”avanja trgovine i gospodarskog rasta
UÄinci transportne infrastrukture i logistiÄke usluge na meÄunarodnu trgovinu i ekonomski rast: sluÄaj zemalja Älanica srednje i istoÄne Europe (CEMS)
The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of transport infrastructure and logistics performance on international trade and economic growth in the Central and Eastern European Union Member States (CEMS). The dissertation is divided in three separate and interrelated research papers. In the first research paper, the question of the role of transport infrastructure in the economy is revisited through the construction of two empirical econometric models.
The first model estimates the impact of road and rail infrastructure on economic growth, considering population growth, investment in infrastructure and trade openness. The second model is used to check the robustness of the first model and follows the Aschauer's (1989) aggregate production function. The analysis is based on a panel data regression with fixed effects estimator (FE). The results of the first model show a significant and positive relationship between road infrastructure and economic output, and significant but negative relationship between rail infrastructure and economic output. The results of the estimation of aggregate production function suggest that among all types of infrastructure, only road transport infrastructure shows significant positive effects on economic output. Although overall results show inconclusive results, they should be seen in a broader context where transport infrastructure is a public good and investment in it is necessary to ensure the territorial, economic and social cohesion of CEMS countries. The second research paper examines the impact of logistics performance on bilateral trade of the EU15 and CEMS countries. The analysis is based on a structural gravity model estimated with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML). The results show that there is a significant relationship between logistics performance and EU15 and the CEMS bilateral trade, with heterogeneous effects of the elements of logistics performance on trade in different product groups.
The third research paper incorporates other elements of logistics performance and trade facilitation, i.e., hard and soft infrastructure, into international trade in addition to logistics performance. The aim is to assess the impact of trade facilitation, distinguishing between traditional trade and supply chain trade. In the first step, factor analysis is used to construct indicators of trade facilitation. In the second step, the effects of trade facilitation indicators on gross trade and trade value added data are estimated with the empirical model specification based on a structural gravity model. To address the issues of heteroscedasticity and zero trade values, the PPML estimator is also used. The
results suggest that different elements of trade facilitation are significant and have different degrees of relevance to traditional and supply chain trade. The findings obtained in the dissertation contribute to the existing body of knowledge in this research area from a theoretical and applicative perspective and offer recommendations for potential improvements in the areas of transportation, logistics, and trade facilitation.Cilj ove disertacije je istražiti utjecaj transportne infrastrukture i logistiÄke usluge na meÄunarodnu trgovinu i gospodarski rast u zemljama srednje i istoÄne Europe (CEMS), Älanicama Europske unije. Disertacija je podijeljena u tri zasebna i meÄusobno povezana znanstvena rada. U prvom istraživaÄkom radu se preispituje pitanje uloge transportne infrastrukture u gospodarstvu na temelju dva empirijska ekonometrijska modela. U prvom modelu se procjenjuju uÄinci cestovne i željezniÄke infrastrukture na gospodarski rast, kontrolirajuÄi pritom rast stanovniÅ”tva, ulaganja u infrastrukturu i otvorenost trgovine. Drugi se model koristi za provjeru robusnosti prvog modela i temelji se na agregatnoj proizvodnoj funkciji koju je koristio Aschauer (1989.) u svom radu. Analiza se temelji na regresiji panel podataka s procjeniteljem fiksnih uÄinaka (FE).
Rezultati prvog modela pokazuju znaÄajnu i pozitivnu vezu izmeÄu cestovne transportne infrastrukture i gospodarskog rasta, ali i znaÄajnu negativnu vezu izmeÄu željezniÄke infrastrukture i ekonomskog rasta. Rezultati procjene agregatne proizvodne funkcije ukazuju na to kako od svih promatranih vrsta transportne infrastrukture, jedino cestovna intrastruktura ima znaÄajne pozitivne uÄinke na ekonomski rast, dok rezultati za ostale vrste infrastrukture nisu statistiÄki znaÄajni. Premda cjelokupni rezultati pokazuju nesignificantne rezultate, treba ih promatrati u Å”irem kontekstu, jer je transportna infrastruktura javno dobro i ulaganje u nju potrebno je kako bi se ostvarila teritorijalna, ekonomska i socijalna kohezija zemalja CEMS. U drugom istraživaÄkom radu se analizira uÄinak logistiÄkih performansi na bilateralnu trgovinu zemalja EU15 i CEMS. Analiza se temelji na strukturnom gravitacijskom modelu koji se procjenjuje s Procjeniteljem pseudo maksimalne vjerodostojnosti (PPML). Rezultati procjene pokazuju da postoji znaÄajna veza izmeÄu logistiÄkih performansi bilateralne trgovine EU15 i CEMS zemalja, meÄutim razliÄiti elementi logistiÄkih performansi imaju razliÄite uÄinke ovisno o grupama proizvoda kojima se trguje.
U treÄem istraživaÄkom radu su ukljuÄeni i drugi elementi logistiÄkih performansi, kao Å”to je tvrda i meka infrastruktura, koja može imati uÄinke na meÄunarodnu trgovinu. Cilj treÄeg rada jest procijeniti utjecaj tvrde i meke infrastrukture na tradicionalnu trgovinu i trgovinu kroz opskrbni lanac. Kako bi se konstruirale varijable olakÅ”avanja trgovine, odnosno tvrde i meke infrastrukture, u prvom koraku analize se koristi faktorska analiza. U drugom koraku se koristi strukturni gravitacijski model kako s PPML procjeniteljem kako bi se procijenili uÄinci tvrde i meke infrastrukture na trgovinu. PPML procjenitelj se koristi kako bi se rijeÅ”io problem heteroskedastiÄnosti i nula vrijednosti trgovine. Rezultati analize sugeriraju kako su razliÄiti elementi olakÅ”avanja trgovine, odnosno tvrda i meka infrastruktura znaÄajni i da imaju razliÄite stupnjeve relevantnosti za tradicionalnu trgovinu i trgovinu u lancu opskrbe. Rezultati disertacije doprinose postojeÄem znanju u podruÄju istraživanja iz teorijske i aplikativne perspektive i nude preporuke za moguÄa poboljÅ”anja u podruÄjima prometa, logistike, olakÅ”avanja trgovine i gospodarskog rasta
UÄinci transportne infrastrukture i logistiÄke usluge na meÄunarodnu trgovinu i ekonomski rast: sluÄaj zemalja Älanica srednje i istoÄne Europe (CEMS)
The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of transport infrastructure and logistics performance on international trade and economic growth in the Central and Eastern European Union Member States (CEMS). The dissertation is divided in three separate and interrelated research papers. In the first research paper, the question of the role of transport infrastructure in the economy is revisited through the construction of two empirical econometric models.
The first model estimates the impact of road and rail infrastructure on economic growth, considering population growth, investment in infrastructure and trade openness. The second model is used to check the robustness of the first model and follows the Aschauer's (1989) aggregate production function. The analysis is based on a panel data regression with fixed effects estimator (FE). The results of the first model show a significant and positive relationship between road infrastructure and economic output, and significant but negative relationship between rail infrastructure and economic output. The results of the estimation of aggregate production function suggest that among all types of infrastructure, only road transport infrastructure shows significant positive effects on economic output. Although overall results show inconclusive results, they should be seen in a broader context where transport infrastructure is a public good and investment in it is necessary to ensure the territorial, economic and social cohesion of CEMS countries. The second research paper examines the impact of logistics performance on bilateral trade of the EU15 and CEMS countries. The analysis is based on a structural gravity model estimated with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML). The results show that there is a significant relationship between logistics performance and EU15 and the CEMS bilateral trade, with heterogeneous effects of the elements of logistics performance on trade in different product groups.
The third research paper incorporates other elements of logistics performance and trade facilitation, i.e., hard and soft infrastructure, into international trade in addition to logistics performance. The aim is to assess the impact of trade facilitation, distinguishing between traditional trade and supply chain trade. In the first step, factor analysis is used to construct indicators of trade facilitation. In the second step, the effects of trade facilitation indicators on gross trade and trade value added data are estimated with the empirical model specification based on a structural gravity model. To address the issues of heteroscedasticity and zero trade values, the PPML estimator is also used. The
results suggest that different elements of trade facilitation are significant and have different degrees of relevance to traditional and supply chain trade. The findings obtained in the dissertation contribute to the existing body of knowledge in this research area from a theoretical and applicative perspective and offer recommendations for potential improvements in the areas of transportation, logistics, and trade facilitation.Cilj ove disertacije je istražiti utjecaj transportne infrastrukture i logistiÄke usluge na meÄunarodnu trgovinu i gospodarski rast u zemljama srednje i istoÄne Europe (CEMS), Älanicama Europske unije. Disertacija je podijeljena u tri zasebna i meÄusobno povezana znanstvena rada. U prvom istraživaÄkom radu se preispituje pitanje uloge transportne infrastrukture u gospodarstvu na temelju dva empirijska ekonometrijska modela. U prvom modelu se procjenjuju uÄinci cestovne i željezniÄke infrastrukture na gospodarski rast, kontrolirajuÄi pritom rast stanovniÅ”tva, ulaganja u infrastrukturu i otvorenost trgovine. Drugi se model koristi za provjeru robusnosti prvog modela i temelji se na agregatnoj proizvodnoj funkciji koju je koristio Aschauer (1989.) u svom radu. Analiza se temelji na regresiji panel podataka s procjeniteljem fiksnih uÄinaka (FE).
Rezultati prvog modela pokazuju znaÄajnu i pozitivnu vezu izmeÄu cestovne transportne infrastrukture i gospodarskog rasta, ali i znaÄajnu negativnu vezu izmeÄu željezniÄke infrastrukture i ekonomskog rasta. Rezultati procjene agregatne proizvodne funkcije ukazuju na to kako od svih promatranih vrsta transportne infrastrukture, jedino cestovna intrastruktura ima znaÄajne pozitivne uÄinke na ekonomski rast, dok rezultati za ostale vrste infrastrukture nisu statistiÄki znaÄajni. Premda cjelokupni rezultati pokazuju nesignificantne rezultate, treba ih promatrati u Å”irem kontekstu, jer je transportna infrastruktura javno dobro i ulaganje u nju potrebno je kako bi se ostvarila teritorijalna, ekonomska i socijalna kohezija zemalja CEMS. U drugom istraživaÄkom radu se analizira uÄinak logistiÄkih performansi na bilateralnu trgovinu zemalja EU15 i CEMS. Analiza se temelji na strukturnom gravitacijskom modelu koji se procjenjuje s Procjeniteljem pseudo maksimalne vjerodostojnosti (PPML). Rezultati procjene pokazuju da postoji znaÄajna veza izmeÄu logistiÄkih performansi bilateralne trgovine EU15 i CEMS zemalja, meÄutim razliÄiti elementi logistiÄkih performansi imaju razliÄite uÄinke ovisno o grupama proizvoda kojima se trguje.
U treÄem istraživaÄkom radu su ukljuÄeni i drugi elementi logistiÄkih performansi, kao Å”to je tvrda i meka infrastruktura, koja može imati uÄinke na meÄunarodnu trgovinu. Cilj treÄeg rada jest procijeniti utjecaj tvrde i meke infrastrukture na tradicionalnu trgovinu i trgovinu kroz opskrbni lanac. Kako bi se konstruirale varijable olakÅ”avanja trgovine, odnosno tvrde i meke infrastrukture, u prvom koraku analize se koristi faktorska analiza. U drugom koraku se koristi strukturni gravitacijski model kako s PPML procjeniteljem kako bi se procijenili uÄinci tvrde i meke infrastrukture na trgovinu. PPML procjenitelj se koristi kako bi se rijeÅ”io problem heteroskedastiÄnosti i nula vrijednosti trgovine. Rezultati analize sugeriraju kako su razliÄiti elementi olakÅ”avanja trgovine, odnosno tvrda i meka infrastruktura znaÄajni i da imaju razliÄite stupnjeve relevantnosti za tradicionalnu trgovinu i trgovinu u lancu opskrbe. Rezultati disertacije doprinose postojeÄem znanju u podruÄju istraživanja iz teorijske i aplikativne perspektive i nude preporuke za moguÄa poboljÅ”anja u podruÄjima prometa, logistike, olakÅ”avanja trgovine i gospodarskog rasta
DETERMINANTE TRGOVINE DODANOM VRIJEDNOÅ ÄU U EU (EU-15 vs. CEE)
Cilj ovog rada je procijeniti uÄinke pojedinih determinanti na trgovinu dodanom vrijednoÅ”Äu DV, te analizirati postoje li i u kojoj mjeri razlike izmeÄu starih (EU-15) i novih (CEE) zemalja Älanica. Kao varijabla trgovine DV koristi se domaÄa dodana vrijednost (DVAFX) sadržana u stranom bruto izvozu. Analiza se temelji na strukturnom gravitacijskom modelu, a provedena je za razdoblje od 2000. do 2019. godine na uzorku od 130 zemalja. U analizi su ukljuÄene varijable pozicija u globalnom lancu vrijednosti, tehnoloÅ”ki razvoj, razvoj informacijske i komunikacijske tehnologije te uÄinkovitost institucija i granica. Kako bi se rijeÅ”io problem efekta treÄih zemalja, te potencijalni problem endogenosti, u model su ukljuÄeni godiÅ”nji fiksni uÄinci, fiksni uÄinci trgovinskih parova i fiksni uÄinci zemalja izvoznica i uvoznica. Kao glavni procjenitelj koristi se Poissonov procjenitelj pseudo maksimalne vjerodostojnosti (PPML), dok se kao test robusnosti modela koristi dinamiÄka panela analiza s GMM procjeniteljem. Rezultati analize pokazuju kako su uÄinkovitost institucija i granica, tehnoloÅ”ki razvoj i pozicija u lancu opskrbe znaÄajne za DVAFX te da su uÄinci tehnoloÅ”kog razvoja i pozicije u lancu opskrbe joÅ” veÄi za zemlje CEE u usporedbi s EU-15