Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Does inter-vertebral range of motion increase after spinal manipulation? A prospective cohort study.

Background: Spinal manipulation for nonspecific neck pain is thought to work in part by improving inter-vertebral range of motion (IV-RoM), but it is difficult to measure this or determine whether it is related to clinical outcomes. Objectives: This study undertook to determine whether cervical spine flexion and extension IV-RoM increases after a course of spinal manipulation, to explore relationships between any IV-RoM increases and clinical outcomes and to compare palpation with objective measurement in the detection of hypo-mobile segments. Method: Thirty patients with nonspecific neck pain and 30 healthy controls matched for age and gender received quantitative fluoroscopy (QF) screenings to measure flexion and extension IV-RoM (C1-C6) at baseline and 4-week follow-up between September 2012-13. Patients received up to 12 neck manipulations and completed NRS, NDI and Euroqol 5D-5L at baseline, plus PGIC and satisfaction questionnaires at follow-up. IV-RoM accuracy, repeatability and hypo-mobility cut-offs were determined. Minimal detectable changes (MDC) over 4 weeks were calculated from controls. Patients and control IV-RoMs were compared at baseline as well as changes in patients over 4 weeks. Correlations between outcomes and the number of manipulations received and the agreement (Kappa) between palpated and QF-detected of hypo-mobile segments were calculated. Results: QF had high accuracy (worst RMS error 0.5o) and repeatability (highest SEM 1.1o, lowest ICC 0.90) for IV-RoM measurement. Hypo-mobility cut offs ranged from 0.8o to 3.5o. No outcome was significantly correlated with increased IV-RoM above MDC and there was no significant difference between the number of hypo-mobile segments in patients and controls at baseline or significant increases in IV-RoMs in patients. However, there was a modest and significant correlation between the number of manipulations received and the number of levels and directions whose IV-RoM increased beyond MDC (Rho=0.39, p=0.043). There was also no agreement between palpation and QF in identifying hypo-mobile segments (Kappa 0.04-0.06). Conclusions: This study found no differences in cervical sagittal IV-RoM between patients with non-specific neck pain and matched controls. There was a modest dose-response relationship between the number of manipulations given and number of levels increasing IV-RoM - providing evidence that neck manipulation has a mechanical effect at segmental levels. However, patient-reported outcomes were not related to this

Enrichment of antioxidant capacity and vitamin E in pita made from barley

This study aimed to enhance total antioxidant and vitamin E content of pita bread, by replacing 50% of the standard baker's flour with flours milled from covered (WI2585 and Harrington) or hulless (Finniss) barley genotypes, previously shown to have high antioxidant and vitamin E levels at harvest. Pita breads were made from either 100% baker's flour (control) or 50% malt flour, whole-grain flour, or flour from barley grains pearled at 10%, 15%, and 20% grain weight. Antioxidant capacity and vitamin E content of flours and pitas were determined by their ability to scavenge 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radicals and high performance liquid chromatography, respectively. The physical and sensory properties of the pitas were also assessed. All pitas made from either whole grain or pearled barley flour had a higher antioxidant capacity and most also had higher vitamin E content than standard pita. The antioxidant and vitamin E levels were reduced in pearled compared to whole grains, however the extent of that reduction varied among genotypes. The greatest antioxidant and vitamin E levels were found in pita made from malt flour or Finniss whole grain flour. Furthermore, sensory analysis suggested these pitas were acceptable to consumers and retained similar physical and sensory properties to those in the control pita.Thi Thu Dung Do, Beverly Muhlhausler, Amanda Box and Amanda J. Abl

Managerial Work in a Practice-Embodying Institution - The role of calling, the virtue of constancy

What can be learned from a small scale study of managerial work in a highly marginal and under-researched working community? This paper uses the ‘goods-virtues-practices-institutions’ framework to examine the managerial work of owner-directors of traditional circuses. Inspired by MacIntyre’s arguments for the necessity of a narrative understanding of the virtues, interviews explored how British and Irish circus directors accounted for their working lives. A purposive sample was used to select subjects who had owned and managed traditional touring circuses for at least 15 years, a period in which the economic and reputational fortunes of traditional circuses have suffered badly. This sample enabled the research to examine the self-understanding of people who had, at least on the face of it, exhibited the virtue of constancy. The research contributes to our understanding of the role of the virtues in organizations by presenting evidence of an intimate relationship between the virtue of constancy and a ‘calling’ work orientation. This enhances our understanding of the virtues that are required if management is exercised as a domain-related practice

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

This is the final version. Available from AGU via the DOI in this recordUntil recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. Key Points The winter NAO can be skilfully predicted months ahead The signal-to-noise ratio of the predictable signal is anomalously low Predictions of the risk of regional winter extremes are possibleThis work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. Leon Hermanson was funded as part of his Research Fellowship by Willis as part of Willis Research Network (WRN)

X-ray Absorption and Reflection in Active Galactic Nuclei

X-ray spectroscopy offers an opportunity to study the complex mixture of emitting and absorbing components in the circumnuclear regions of active galactic nuclei, and to learn about the accretion process that fuels AGN and the feedback of material to their host galaxies. We describe the spectral signatures that may be studied and review the X-ray spectra and spectral variability of active galaxies, concentrating on progress from recent Chandra, XMM-Newton and Suzaku data for local type 1 AGN. We describe the evidence for absorption covering a wide range of column densities, ionization and dynamics, and discuss the growing evidence for partial-covering absorption from data at energies > 10 keV. Such absorption can also explain the observed X-ray spectral curvature and variability in AGN at lower energies and is likely an important factor in shaping the observed properties of this class of source. Consideration of self-consistent models for local AGN indicates that X-ray spectra likely comprise a combination of absorption and reflection effects from material originating within a few light days of the black hole as well as on larger scales. It is likely that AGN X-ray spectra may be strongly affected by the presence of disk-wind outflows that are expected in systems with high accretion rates, and we describe models that attempt to predict the effects of radiative transfer through such winds, and discuss the prospects for new data to test and address these ideas.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. 58 pages, 9 figures. V2 has fixed an error in footnote